Comments section is amusing, apparently Julian is a Russian asset for reporting on this.
I think he's likely telling the truth in this case.
Wagner have been fighting in Bakhmut for months now and have taken heavy casualties. It's perfectly reasonable that whatever remains of them needs to be rotated out and given a breather.
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well said.
Russian su35 downed after bombing Kherson earlier , crashed over the blacksea
I'd imagine Prigozhin spends most of his time hanging well back from the front line, only coming more into the town for photo ops and those rants he does. It would be very satisfying to hear that he got jibbed by a shell or missile, but there is a perverse school of thought to say that he's better alive than dead for Ukraine at this point because he's such a thorn in the side of Shoigu et al.
Romania is not in a war for its survival though. That's the difference between it and Ukraine.
Ukraine has an urgency to get things done that Romania doesn't have, as well as that, its Allies and NATO also have more urgency in helping Ukraine than arming Romania.
It 31 Abrams tanks are taking over 12 +months to arrive,
Except they are not taking 12 months to arrive. Apparently, they are to arrive in early Fall 2023. So about 6-8 months from Feb.
https://apnews.com/article/abrams-tanks-ukraine-war-training-russia-62a21f24f4769044b3fcade518e5b44e
Is it fair to say Wagner are better on the battlefield than the Russian army? Also that Prigozhin is a pig but how has he not been killed? If he’s been in Bakmhut for so long.
I'd say Prigozhin wants out while he still can, has something left to take, and can still claim some glory. The fact he wants to leave so soon is pretty telling though. That guy has a nose for trouble ( its how he's survived ) and I'd say that all his warning lights are flashing red now.
It served its purpose for the time that it mattered. Prigozhin failed to take it in time for the 9th May Victory celebrations, denying Putin a big propaganda boost. Taking it a week or 10 days later, is not the same thing, and now, Prigozhin wants out ASAP. He does not want to be associated with what's coming, I'd say. And neither are the regular army either. Russia military will always associate Bakhmut with defeat after defeat, because that's what they suffered there month after month, no matter how Putin's factory of lies try's to spin it. No whoever is left defending it will be subjected to massive bombardments.
Probably want to get out before the new offensive traps them there.
Well how can you believe anything but it plausible that he see a personal way out - just declare victory on some dubious basis and skedaddle after handing it over. Then watch with relief from a distance.
Bakhmut likely has fallen to the Red Army but the Ukrainian forces are deeply dug in in surrounding areas, which are only several Kms from the edge of Bakhmut.
It's not as if there is a significant increase or advance.
It would be mighty interesting if Ukraine could successfully pull off a counter-attack on Bakhmut if/when the Russian regulars moved in because you know Prigozhin would use that as ammo to lay into the regular Russian generals in an almighty way - even worse than he had been doing. It would up his standing in the Russian hierarchy and make his rivals genuinely nervous of losing favour to him. It's definitely something Ukraine would do well to encourage, i.e. infighting between the various heads of Russia's fractious military forces.
"but it's hard to see what value it was in the end."
Just to help you understand the value of defending Bakhmut to Ukraine, here is an article detailing estimates of the troops lost by the moskovytes in trying to capture Bakhmut which must help blunt their offensive abilities they could have been using to attack other parts of Ukraine:
Have not seen anyone claiming that Ukraine had not lost troops to achieve these losses in the moskovyte forces like a persistent poster on this thread has just claimed but ratios in this area that have been put forward by Ukrainians involved in the fighting there, suggest much more moskovytes killed for each Ukrainian that they unfortunately lost.
You'd have to wonder at the latest reported utterances of Prigozhin - that Wagner has achieved it's target in Bakhmut and will withdraw in the next week, handing it over to the regular Russian military!
Apart from the fact that you can't believe a fart from him, the inferences are amusing - not least that the regular Russian military are second rate and only fit to hold what has been won by him. Also and/or a handy get out before the whole shebang collapses on them and the Ukrainian army sets about destroying what Russian forces are left there.
Plus every month that goes by Ukraine are getting more/better equipment and training. A buildup is in progress for a new offensive which will push the Russians to breaking point.
Russia does not have infinite bodies to throw at these kinds of situations. It's been well-reported at this stage that Wagner were heavily relying on convicts to inch forward in Bakhmut, so you're talking about a subset of Russian soldier and one that's been recklessly expended by general Melchett Yevgheny Prigozhin. Given his anger at Russian high command and readiness to get the fúck out of Bakhmut, it's pretty obvious that Prigozhin is not happy how this has gone for his troops. It has been an extremely costly victory for Wagner PMC and not a feat I think they can repeat or would even care to. Russia's iron rain petered out last Summer, and now they're going to have to increasingly start asking unwilling conscripts and professional soldiers to be the meat that is flung at Ukrainian gun nests. The Russian military desperately needs mobility, otherwise what was eight months for Bakhmut will be a year for Kramatorsk.
Part of it will be to demoralise russian troops and the other part to convince the russian politicians they are chasing a lost cause. The ante will continue to be upped by NATO countries until russia is forced to give up.
Ukraine will have F35 at some point (likely post war), unless the russian withdraw includes some sort of both sides disarmament deal in which case a NATO base will be in or near Ukraine to provide air superiority instead.
It is not beyond Ukrainian ingenuity to let the rumor gather momentum for a while, then shoot it down. This way they show up the Russians as liars.
He's not been seen in public in 8 days but a video was posted 2 ago went completely unnoticed by even the Ukrainan media , mean while no official denials or refutes from the Ukrainans despite the claims.
It's an odd one
I'm here longer than you, post your evidence.
We have to remember every Ukrainian soldier lost is a bigger loss to Ukraine than a Russian soldier lost is to Russia. It's just numbers. Russia has far more bodies it can throw at these stalemates.
Looking at the state of this town I'm not sure it was wise for Ukraine to hold out for it as long as they did really. It boosted morale for a while but it's hard to see what value it was in the end.
Now Ukraine has to work the flanks of the city and see if they can force a Russian withdrawal with a threatened encirclement.
I love your optimism and certainly would be delighted if you proved correct. I can't say I share the same optimism that the war will be over by October with the Russian dictatorship defeated. In terms of the F-16's it does seem like the Ukrainians will be flying them before 2023 is out so that will hopefully help towards a Ukrainian victory sooner rather then later.
Just found this, posted minutes ago https://twitter.com/rybar_en/status/1660328815753609216?s=20
If the reports in the media we are seeing are in any way accurate it would seem the Ukrainians are making gains in the suburbs and the Russian dictatorship in the city.
He's only the Ukrainans Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces he's not missing he's just busy, somewhere
Literally no one is saying that. It's odd that you're taking everything else literally but not this.
Find the posts where anyone is saying there is 0 Bakhmut losses for Ukraine otherwise withdraw and continue ratholing on F16.
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