The DUP refusing to let Sinn Fein have First Minister means a December Assembly Election. Will the numbers change in a fresh Election?
What parties seats are vulnerable or who might make gains in any constituencies ??
Largest party by district electoral area.
What with coronations and the like, it is more the case that SF have moved toward more moderate voters. I wouldn't characterise it as a move toward extremism on the nationalist side. You could saw that the UU losing out to the DUP is a move to extremism, but both lost out today.
Then why dont those DUP voters of which you speak of put pressure on their leader to go back into Stormont?
Ita the DUP that are holding NI back from being a functioning country with an accountable local government.
As of this typing looks like the DUP are holding their net total of seats; that's somewhat depressing unless I'm missing some vital context beyond the statistics. The collapse of the SDLP as a relevant force is also sad to see but as I said earlier you do sense that even soft nationalist recognise the usefulness of a unified voice.
I presume they are trying to put the pressure on but it must be difficult with the DUP's vote seemingly holding and their leadership claiming this as a "win" for their particular negative brand of politics. Prominent "community activists" such as Richard Garland and Joel Keys have gradually changed their pro-DUP stance into something much more reasonable.
Only yesterday Garland (an ex-DUP advisor) tweeted "If you want change then vote for it. Don’t vote for the same people and then act surprised when you get the same results" and also "In my experience the DUP want more liberal unionists in their ranks but they don’t want more liberal views in their policies, I hope that will change."
The pre-election sloganeering of both the DUP and TUV was sickening and plunged whataboutery to new depths. The message isn't even hidden now. "Vote for us or you'll get the IRA"
An Orangeman who goes by the Twitter name of Choyaa tweeted "The DUP terrifying the electorate about the spectre of Sinn Féin doesn't work"
Hasn't worked for FF or FG either.
Yes, its like the country is stuck in a gear stall, permanently.
If people choose to vote for the DUP, of course thats up to them.
But there should be some form of additional pressure from the British Govt to force them back into Stormont.
S**t or get off the pot.
Whether the British Govt start to erode wages for Politiicans not sitting but elected to Stormont, or they transfer power further down the chain to other parties that will sit, I dont know.
But they should do something in the name of the people of NI and their own best interests.
It should be Joint Authority but the current Irish government will not stand up for that on behalf of those who identify as Irish. Can't be upsetting the Unionists!
Joint Authourity is messy and Ireland would then have to devote resources etc.
I dont see why they couldnt introduce a transfer of power after a set time limit. If candidate A does not sit after x amount of time, seats transfer to the 2nd highest polling candidate.
If that person doesnt sit, transfer of power moves to the 3rd most popular candidate from the election.
They already have 5 seat STV so the first replacement would be the person who came 6th, potentially on sub 10% FPV
😁 And the current arrangement isn't 'messy'?
Indeed.
But better to keep it in-house.
If the NI electorate is soley responsible for Stormont, which is as it should be, the people of NI cant really complain if their own parties choose not to sit in govt.
The threat of knowing govt will sit, whether the DUP take the seats or not, will be enough of a threat to get them to do the job the people are asking them to do.
And if they dig their heels in, then we default to the next candidate.
I doubt we would see very much defaulting under that process.
If the NI electorate is soley responsible for Stormont
They aren't though, there is an International Agreement with mechanisms for this scenario...it should be properly implemented. You want people who the electorate have said they don't want, in power.
But thats still the democratic order.
The people of NI may complain that their representative received only 8% FPV, but hey, who's fault is that?
Pick it up with your candidate. Its their choice not to sit.
In reality, I honestly dont think we would see many transfers.
The DUP would be quick to get back on the pitch if they weren't allowed to take the ball home.
And so too, the other parties.
(I'm not aiming the approach at the DUP specifically.)
Its the candidate that most people voted for and whom is preapred to sit in Stormont.
Sounds pretty democratic to me.
? How is the 3rd or 4th placed candidate the 'candidate that most people voted for'?
The candidate most people voted for, whom is prepared to sit.
There are 2 conditions, not 1.
The alternative is having a collapsed govt for a long time to come.
That only solves the issue for a while.
Ending up with the place being governed by the 3rd or 4th choice could easily lead to greater difficulties.
How many first preference candidates would choose not to sit though, realistically? :)
I dont think many. in fact, I'm not sure it would be any.
And even if they did choose not to sit, thats on the first candidate.
If i vote for Candidate X and they get the most votes but choose not to sit, I am asking them, "why stand in the first place?"
"you caused this issue, because you wouldnt stand over it if you were in government. and you had the choice to go into govt but you chose not to. Thats on you. Im not voting for you again."
Anyone that didnt sit would become Johnny come latelys.
The part we are overlooking is that the party is then immediatley devoid of political equity.
Under this model, if the DUP decided not to sit, well the world would go on without them. They would be irrlelevant over night.
Well, if they thought the 3rd and 4th placed would cause further instability they might chose not to sit. That is what the DUP are depending on by not going in, after all
It wouldnt matter what they thought. They wouldnt have a seat at the table.
Nobody would be hearing them.
You'd be putting a sound proofed glass box over them.
How far did that get the statelet before?
A cohort excluded and silenced...what happened as a result of that?
Gentlemen, please take your seats.
nobodys stopping you. In fact, we would like you to.
What makes you think the incumbents you placed in those seats will give them up?
It's a crazy plan from the start.
They wouldnt give them up. They would be in seat until the next election.
What would happen is the first preference candidate would take their seat in the first place.
If we stick with the status quo, how long do you think it will be before we see Stormont up and running?
When a political party decides to be democrats.
In the meantime the agreed mechanisms should come into play.
What mechanics do we have that are not currently in play though?
And if you mean when the DUP will due their duty and decide to sit, i dont see that happening for the forseeable.
Its not unreasonable to say we wont have stormont functioing this decade.
Caught a bit of bbc coverage. I believe it was an ex UUP analyst Kennedy(not sure) who insinuated that SF running 6 candidates in the Newry district was benign apartheid if it had won. It was bizarre. They all looked mystified on the panel, mark pointed out how ludicrous it was.
Well there is one key one - another election.
Then there is Strand 2 of the GFA which contains the mechanism for the 2 governments to decide what to do next.
