Russians bombing bridges in Bakhmut
Every situation has a breaking point. Apply sufficient stress and the cracks widen, then all falls asunder.
Things not going to well for Russia in bakhmut, sure they might take the last bit of the city. However, losing more of the high ground and trying to blow bridges up leading to to the city means they know that they can't take hold it. It will be a pyrrhic victory and they probably won't hold it for very long if Ukraine decide to counter attack for the city.
Ukraine might not be in a hurry to end it if its only a meatgrinder for the Russians and the mercs.
I really do not get the Russian strategy for Bakhmut.
I'm just armchair commentary , but I do not understand why the Russians are throwing everything at it. Why not regroup and use the winter to retrain the Zorcs, regroup and use Belarus to make a second play on Kyiv.
Only conclusion I can see is that they will want to settle the war with territory currently claimed and claim that as victory.
Winter? Spring isn't even technically over.
I meant back in December
Technically, it's not the *Russians* so much as it's Wagner PMC (with regular Russian support).
Wagner leader Prigozhin is poised to deliver the first win of any note for Russia in months and potentially gain a lot of prestige and influence along with it. I say potentially, because I have my doubts that Putin would be terrifically impressed with the capture of a small town with thousands and thousands of casualties incurred. Nevertheless, Prigozhin has sunk huge resources into the town and because of that, I can well imagine that he is determined to see this through. It looks crazy to us, and it *is* crazy, but we don't possess the warped psychology of Prigozhin.
I don't think the Russians have the stuff to make a second serious play for Kyiv. Not the tools and not the know-how. Any time to sit back and retrain is also time for the Ukrainians to take more deliveries of Patriot systems, train on F-16s, combined armed assaults, and just generally becoming not just a NATO grade military, but one which is thoroughly battle-hardened.
A lot of that is understandably wishful thinking.
There was some Chinese envoy coming to Ukraine (there now).
I expect they won't bomb/drone/missile the capital while he is there.
He is likely to get more respect than the UN Sec. General or other visitors (harming the rep. of the "unlimited friend" you are trying to cadge weapons and supplies off probably would not be smart, even the Russians know that much).
Are the Americans (not cynically) using this war to put their weaponry to a real test?
After this will China think twice about trying to take Taiwan?
How important was that strike on Kiev which now seems to have been dismantled comprehensively by the Patriot system?
Will they play a similar role in Taiwan if China makes a move there?
He's there now and was told no land for peace. He's finishing his trip off in Moscow too.
On Wednesday, Li met Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, who said the talks focused on his country’s territorial integrity.
According to the Ukrainian foreign ministry, Kuleba “explained the principles of restoring a stable and just peace in detail, based on the respect of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine”, AFP reported.
Kuleba told Li that Ukraine would not “accept any proposals that would involve the loss of its territories or the freezing of the conflict”.
The US has not sent in any weapons system we need any testing information on. They haven't received anything new, even though we closely guard NATO patriot missile defense systems they've been in development and use since the 80s, and developed since the 60s. it's not their first rodeo, yet they're about the most advanced thing we've sent them. Nothing they've been sent is a virgin or prototype weapons design.
I understand but its tête à tête with this supposed hypersonic missile was unknown territory, wasn't it?
I had forgotten that but this has been a new test surely.It can't have been a foregone conclusion that it would emerge unscathed from an encounter with a "hypersonic" weapon...
Also ,it must have been upgraded over the years I'd have thought.
In light of Ukraine poised to receive M1s, there's been a new documentary out about the current state of the art of the Abrams (the unclassified stuff anyway) with several points contextualized wrt Ukraine
(Recuperators are also used on standing power generating turbines, they're a standard section in thermodynamics textbooks these days)
Where are Russia's hypersonic missiles getting fired from, and why do they actually get to Kyiv before Patriot takes them out, can they not be taken out miles out from the target?
There's only 2 systems for the whole country, 1 donated from USA, 1 from Germany. They have an interception area of around 60~100km radius x 25 km altitude according to public docs.
Their hypersonic missiles are designed to be belly launched from a fighter jet, so where they are fired from can vary wildly. That's about 3.43 kilometers per second, in theory. If the Patriot is target directly it has about 20~30 seconds to get it right. It stands a better chance of defending itself from such a missile coming right at it than defending something else at the edge of its interception range. The interception missiles the system fires themselves reportedly are up to Mach 5 in 3 seconds.
The engagement time during Gulf War 1 was reportedly 15~18 seconds, that was the time to detect a Scud missile and eliminate it. Assume computers have come a long fair way since then, and that the system is capable of resolving a target in far less than 15 seconds, at targets exceeding speeds of Mach 10 (the patriot missile itself is Mach 5 and if it's intercepting a Mach 5 target has to scan things at relative speeds of Mach 10 or greater)
a Kinzhal reportedly costs $10M a pop, and a patriot missile costs $4M and the launcher costs $10M to replace. So it's good math for NATO to let them try and keep giving it more go's.
I don't suppose they can target the plane that fired the missile can they?
The system is certainly capable of aircraft interceptions and has done so in its service history but I think it's a question of efficient use of resources, not many systems can intercept hypersonic missiles, a lot more systems can intercept a subsonic or even supersonic aircraft.
More missiles this morning in the capital
No word on what was hit
They were all shot down, so nothing was hit. Right there in the post directly above yours.
Putin will be tearing what's left of his hair out over those missiles being shot down. Then again, his generals may just tell him that all strikes were successful...
The Ukrainian MoD also said that all missiles were shot down during the previous barrage on Kyiv, and only later admitted that a patriot system was damaged (because OSINT types identified it from cam videos)
Their statements are not always truthful
Kinzhal flies a ballistic or quasi-ballistic trajectory, which means they shoot it up in the air, it flies in a very high arc and then comes down almost vertically on it's target.
For most of it's flight path it's too high - perhaps 40km - for Ukraine's air-defense systems.
In comparison a cruise missile such as the Kalibr flies low and level, relatively slow. Any air-defense system it comes close to could shoot it down easily (even manpads have done it). So they try to fly routes that keep them away from air-defense.
Was surprised by that this morning. Didn't believe they would attack the city while he was still there (assuming hadn't left by then?) but then the Russian govt. do seem to be massively arrogant, and maybe have not internalised how important staying on the good side of China is for them!
Satellite imagery from before the attack on patriot shows the patriot battery located at the airport in Kiev, which corresponds to both the launches and the later 2 big explosions shown on webcam that night.
Curiously there has been no new satellite imagery of the city since the attack so the damage cannot be verified.
****... one launcher destroyed? Better cancel the war lads
Don't believe everything you see.
It seems rather futile to keep firing unless the goal is to deplete Ukraine's defensive capability.
More, bigger, longer boom booms, it's going happen anyway so give it to them now.
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