Technically, it's not the *Russians* so much as it's Wagner PMC (with regular Russian support).
Wagner leader Prigozhin is poised to deliver the first win of any note for Russia in months and potentially gain a lot of prestige and influence along with it. I say potentially, because I have my doubts that Putin would be terrifically impressed with the capture of a small town with thousands and thousands of casualties incurred. Nevertheless, Prigozhin has sunk huge resources into the town and because of that, I can well imagine that he is determined to see this through. It looks crazy to us, and it *is* crazy, but we don't possess the warped psychology of Prigozhin.
I don't think the Russians have the stuff to make a second serious play for Kyiv. Not the tools and not the know-how. Any time to sit back and retrain is also time for the Ukrainians to take more deliveries of Patriot systems, train on F-16s, combined armed assaults, and just generally becoming not just a NATO grade military, but one which is thoroughly battle-hardened.
I meant back in December
Winter? Spring isn't even technically over.
I really do not get the Russian strategy for Bakhmut.
I'm just armchair commentary , but I do not understand why the Russians are throwing everything at it. Why not regroup and use the winter to retrain the Zorcs, regroup and use Belarus to make a second play on Kyiv.
Only conclusion I can see is that they will want to settle the war with territory currently claimed and claim that as victory.
Ukraine might not be in a hurry to end it if its only a meatgrinder for the Russians and the mercs.
Things not going to well for Russia in bakhmut, sure they might take the last bit of the city. However, losing more of the high ground and trying to blow bridges up leading to to the city means they know that they can't take hold it. It will be a pyrrhic victory and they probably won't hold it for very long if Ukraine decide to counter attack for the city.
Every situation has a breaking point. Apply sufficient stress and the cracks widen, then all falls asunder.
Russians bombing bridges in Bakhmut
More trenches around Klischiivka abandoned by the Russians.
Klischiivka itself is a fortress occupying the high ground. If the Russians are forced out of here then you know things are very bad for them.
Well I guess that there will be a two pronged main offensive with the aim of cutting off large Russian forces. Probably a 'false' offensive to draw attention first.
They could be waiting to see what effect the bombing had on the system....total or partial destruction, and how bad is it?
Well, as a Russian Policeman I was friendly with explained to me: " Here, the people I'm allowed to stop, don't have any money, and the ones that have the money, I'm not allowed to stop!!!" And another friend ( not a policeman) explained, here a Family will pool their resources when buying a vehicle, which will be shared between them. They will deliberately buy a big ( bigger the better) black SUV, preferably with black windows. Then when they come to a police checkpoint, they will drive straight up, brake in a cloud of dust and demand to know why are they being stopped. If the Policemen asks any questions, he will be asked in no uncertain terms, " Don't you know who I am? " And things being the way they are in Russia, the policeman will apologize, salute and wave on the SUV. Unless you have actually been there, its hard to believe what goes on.
According to the Pentagon, the Radar was undamaged, some other component was.
Virgil that's the same report I saw.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/16/politics/patriot-missile-damage-ukraine/index.html
The US sent inspectors to examine the system on Tuesday after being told by Ukrainian forces that the system appeared to have been damaged, one official said.
The system itself is still operational, the officials said, and the radar component of the Patriot, one of its most important elements, was not damaged. US officials do not believe the Patriot will need to be removed from the battlefield for repairs.
Not sure if I believe CNN as they often do get things wrong. But hopefully this quote is true...
If a launcher was destroyed it's not a big deal, they are cheap and low-tech. A typical battery has 5-8 launchers spread out over a wide area. The system is still operational with some launchers gone, your capability is just a bit degraded (you could be overwhelmed easier for example). Supplying more launchers to Ukraine would not be a problem.
If a radar was destroyed it's bad news, the system will not be operational, they are expensive to replace.
If the control station was destroyed it's very bad news, the system will not be operational, they are expensive to replace and potentially there could be some highly-trained guys inside.
We simply don't know what was destroyed. So it's all speculation at this point.
Of course it is still your problem. Very short sighted thinking.
What if it's only dark temporarily?
And why, if it wasn't such an important target to take out, did they seem to expend so many missiles in trying to take it out.
Now is the time to take it off the table for good, like a damaged battleship ala Bismarck.
Some interesting reading here regarding the state of Russian battlefield medical care, basically anything more than a slight injury and you're dead.
If you can't translate the actual article a twitter thread about it here.
I thought it was Captain Jack Sparrow on the right.
I mean in the fog of war of the night, if the battery is dark it's not my problem anymore. I'm no military guy, let that be clear, but I've never heard of a doctrine like that, seems like it would lead to a lot of waste and overkill. Missiles don't grow on trees. Doesn't seem like the best use of resources, when by all reports this battery might still be disabled at least for the moment. Not generally how kills are confirmed..
The Patriot system defends a huuuuge radius around it, and if I'm not mistaken and google is accurate its 60-100km of range with a 25km ceiling, the battery itself will not be adjacent to any key targets. If you destroy the launch site, its missiles, there are misfires, etc. you don't keep your kings queens etc next to your pawn like that. For the same reason it's not deployed next to a kids school or a hospital, it's a conventional military target.
Only in hindsight can we suspect they might have done more because of reports that the US/Ukraine might be able to make this battery operation again quite soon.
The weather forecast for the Zaphorizia area is warm and dry for the next week so I assume that soft ground will no longer be a consideration for the Ukraine counter offensive and that combat readiness will decide when it 'starts'.
Do posters expect there to be a main single focal point for the counter offensive, or will there be multiple focal points like the Normandy landings ?
If you look at how a patriot is laid out it's easy to see that Russia are lying(not that we even need to go that far to see that much):
A patriot system is not just a missile battery. It's a full suite of missile battery systems, a command vehicle, a radar etc.. Each one of these can be and probably will be separated by up to 10km. So you could feasibly have batteries separated by over 20km. Its possible that the radar or command vehicle received damage from an intercepted missile maybe however there is more than likely back up or redundancy systems in place. Much of this will be strictly confidential so an armchair general like myself won't have info on that. And the US have abstained from confirming how much or which system was damaged probably because saying anything at all would be breaching that barrier.
All that to say if you wanna destroy a patriot system. You'd need a nuke. And now we know that the patriots can probably intercept those too🤷♂️.
Also Russia said they destroyed it so it's probably not true. 😂
….
No one is storing vast quantities of anything at a central location any more. Ukraine learned this lesson the hard way at the start of the war when they had ammo depots blown in the first few days. The Russians eventually learned their lesson after several HIMARS attacks.
Lol. That's brilliant.
Lukashenko is fine, here he is pictured with 3 of his comrades at important security meeting
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I'd imagine their intelligence capability is severely degraded in Kyiv, very much an "if we don't know you, you get lifted" scenario... leaving collaborators and corrupt officials as sources of info, who are being watched like hawks...
there's been a few scenarios like this, where they take a few days to attempt a finish off.
I'd say the majority are early 20s ,
With one or two exceptions bases off how long people have been on Boards,
I wouldn't call it scientific no ,.but I believe a thread that's over a year old and with no more than 10 regular posters is kinda indicative, even going back to 2014 it was pretty much the same a few regular posters until threads died ,
So you think the claim of a lack of ammunition is a feint?
I thought they'd have something left, drones, anything they could fling at it; if it's out of action to finish it off.
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