it’s that excess inventory is visible to everyone.... compounding that, Tesla have very publicly said in their Q1 financial filings (which are governed by fiduciary duty etc etc), that they will value volume over margin
He also said "orders are in excess of production" so dont pay too much attention to anything he says other than the actual bottomline! 😉
excess inventory
Also, isn't some level of inventory inevitable? Tesla considers each car inventory until the day the customer drives away with it, so all cars in transit would be considered inventory... right?
And hence, as they scale up they will have a corresponding increase of cars in inventory (i.e. in transit, on ships). Thats not indicative of a problem though. They mentioned this on earnings call too about more cars in transit.
Or is your inventory analysis more detailed than that? i.e. They have thousands upon thousands of unwanted cars sitting in a parking lot somewhere?
For sure Tesla would be on the far left of that graph, with Toyota, but the point is - just imagine how many dealerships Toyota have, and how many dozens of models they manufacture, and how many cars of each model they have in the yards of all those worldwide dealerships. That graph includes in-transit inventory too.
Tesla have 2 models, and no traditional dealerships, so inventory matters far far more and is magnified when it rises.
what is without question is that tesla are slashing the prices to shift unsold inventory.
here’s European new inventory, to today. This includes 2 price cut periods which had no effect on inventory.
https://tesladata.mattjung.net/
It is very questionable.
The figures you are sharing are no more than background noise in terms of statistical relevance.
A few thousand cars isn’t even a ship load. You can’t extrapolate anything from that.
Interesting. So, in your view, why did Tesla cut over 20% off the prices of their 2 models two weeks into Q1 and Q2? Amongst other localised cuts, like Germany yesterday, mid quarter
I think the only thing the bar chart depicts is that on the 12/4 something changed regarding when Tesla lists cars in Inventory. Maybe they started listing more "coming soon" cars earlier on while they were on the boat from Shanghai? We also know from the TMC forum that they've shipped Ss and Xs from the US in April for the first time in 12 months which explains those units.
To increase demand, of course. As they bring all factories up to capacity they have more wriggle room to reduce price and they need to bring more people into the Tesla price bracket. They wont sell millions per year at €60k a pop.
But that's a bit different to your narrative. Tell me if Im putting words in your mouth but you seem to be saying that Tesla sales have stalled and that inventory is skyrocketing and hence they had to adjust price to "sell unsold inventory". The suggestion being there are cars piling up somewhere?
Thats clearly not what has happened. The "inventory" being reported arent official figures and more importantly the numbers are tiny in relative terms, not even a ships worth. Of the 2500 reported, 1200 were Model X's which Tesla said were in transit in Q1 as they resumed international deliveries. You cant deduce anything from those numbers.
My guess is that they dropped the price because they see competition heating up, they had increased prices prior to that and had priced themselves too high. They want to bring a whole new set of potential buyers into the net. They are also adjusting per market so a drop in the US or Germany doesn't mean we'll see the same here. Its a myriad of reasons, not "we've a few thousand inventory cars, lets drop the price by 20%".
I read the https://tesladata.mattjung.net/about-the-data/ page which describe the way data is gathered and I must say I have my doubts it is an accurate way of reporting. That is because the inventory in DE could be listed in FR. I checked Belgium website and some vehicles have location as Rotterdam or Zeebrugge some are Coming soon. On the NL website there are some cars in Rotterdam as well. Are they counted twice? On the Irish website are some S and X listed with Southampton. Pretty sure they are advertised on the UK as well. Not saying there is no value in the data but as the number of cars produced and advertised increases the errors in counting based on this method would increase .
Then it is the timeline questions. The European data starts Jan 2023 while US Oct 2022. I find this to be quite small timescale to create a trend and form an opinion. Also, considering that the factories output is on ramp I would suggest to normalize the inventory data. If I look at @liamog's graphs it is exactly that. Days of supply represents the available inventory divided by the numbers of cars produce in the same time frame. That will accurately compare to other brands or national averages. Otherwise you're left comparing to past results which are missing and are affected by different external factors ( inflation, war, chain-supply, pandemic and so on). Even so because of the production ramp, past results are irrelevant.
For "More orders than we have cars" likely just refers to the Boards population - it seems that most boardsies have at least two or three Teslas orders on the go at once to hedge their bets on delivery dates 🙂
@AndyBoBandy or anybody else who's taken the car to Europe. Does the car automatically switch the lights for driving on the right based on the GPS or is it a setting somewhere?
It didn't 2021 but who knows what the situation is in 2023. I'll find out in July.
So you still had to use the stickers?
Anyone who has a grant qualifying M3P since the price cut gotten a delivery date range or hidden VIN yet? None for me, so I'm thinking very unlikely to get before the grant change now in July 🤔
M3P is caught up in the revenue stat code issue unfortunately.
A person at the Tesla shareholder event asked him would they consider advertising in light of the fact that many people have a misconception of what comes with a Tesla.
Advertising for the Model 3 will likely increase the reach to people who wouldn't have considered buying one because Tesla only make very expensive premium cars. If you want to sell cars to the Corolla buying masses then you need to spend a bit of money advertising to them. It's just another sign that Tesla are becoming a perfectly ordinary auto maker who are trying to sell cars to average consumers.
I’d be happy to be caught up in the stat code issue, have no hidden vin & generic April - June delivery date. Realistically, a car would need to be allocated on a boat from Shanghai by early next week to make it here before grant reduction date (unless there is a cancelled order). No M3P in inventory for them to fire sale either for me 😂
Yeah, It did for me… most of my driving was during daylight hours but on the return leg I had about 2 hours of darkness driving on the Autobahn, and as there was a fair bit of road works, there was a lot of slow driving close to the car in front and I definitely noticed the left beam was sat lower that there right beam, which is completely opposite to what I see in Ireland.
mines a 2020 SR+ so non matrix lights..
Did a 305km run the other day from full with roughly a 30 minute stop where I didn’t leave the car for more than 2 mins so energy was being used. Didn’t go over 100 and a lot of it was below that. Was showing 36% left when I got there. Conditions were very good and I was doing it to see what I can get out of the rwd with no overtaking bar a tractor here and there and not going over 100 on the motorway. I could have gone a bit slower on the an and b roads but I think that would be taking the piss.
On the way back I started with 80%, drove the way I normally do (slightly over the speed limit in places like the motorway, some bursts of acceleration) and got back with 5%.
does the reduced grant kick in from delivery date or date of purchase agreement (i.e deposit paid)?
If you order on it after 1st July.
Or if your dealer doesn’t apply for the grant before 1st July.
If dealer applies and is approved before 1st July then there’s about 4 months grace to allow for delivery.
so tesla are saying may/june delivery for new m3 ordered today. assume that the 5k grant is covered? would be on them if the grant wasnt applied for in time?
Not really. The grant is outside of all manufacturers control. I’m sure there’s a term in the T&C’s that the grant can change.
Thanks for the heads-up. Will be interesting to see if the matrix light work the same now.
Maybe I'm just too old, but up until pre-Covid I always valued cars on the basis of 50% of new price after 3 years.
So €22,500 trade in on a 4 year old car that costs €43,000 new doesn't seem that bad to me in a normal car market.
Obviously you'd get more selling privately, but that's a different discussion.
is the 50%/3 year thing outdated? Is 5 years the new 3 years?
I know that, Tesla never had to do that before, hence the desperation kicking in. Look at the share price since
Tesla used to sell every car they could make, now they have a demand problem. They had no need for conventional advertising. Musk with his noise did an excellent job of guerrilla advertising
I do think your confusing marketing and advertising though
Marketing is finding out what the consumers want so you can producing something that the consumers will want to buy. Advertising is letting the consumers know that your product is out there and why they should buy your product instead of “Brand Y.” I don't think Tesla are gonna do well with that approach
Tesla ad should be as follows....
30 seconds of close up video of a driver's face, with a big beaming smile on their face;
Then cut to a Model 3 driving off..
Then the below text fades in as the car is driving off
Tesla Model 3, from €40,322 on the road
Not bad
Might as well put in 42k otr though
Anyone driving it with these aero wheels uhhh 😭
I don't have those aero hub caps, but the original ones, and I honestly don't mind them.... they've spent more time on the car than off it!
Last time they were off was last summer but they went back on for the trip to Europe and have remained on ever since... I'd value the efficiency gain more so over the aesthetic gain..
How is Tesla telling potential consumers what a Model 3 is capable of and the price it's available at not advertising? Was the mansplaining really required?
Apologies that was a bit condescending
Small correction too, that's Musk now telling potential customers what a Model 3 is capable of
You can probably gather I don't like the guy and the sooner Tesla become more than a one man band the better imo. He's costing them more sales than any lack of advertising
Sorry I'll try to tone down my musk hate
Yes the M3 is amazing, especially the performance model, best value car in the country, 50k is a steal for that weapon
Fair enough, didn't realise they worked so well, I'd keep them on too for that difference
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