I do like the idea of the Russians getting profoundly nervous right about now. There's power just in the psychological boogeyman of an AFU counter-attack. In fact, I think it's a concept you could take right out of Sun Tzu's Art of War about terrifying the enemy with the very idea of a devastating offensive and watch them fall into disarray. If the Russians did not believe that Ukraine had some serious offensive power, they would be committing so much time to putting these defences together. So many of these hundreds of thousands of conscripts brought into the Russian military may not have been handed a gun and told to fight, but rather handed a shovel and told to go dig.
Won't change anything..
We will get a commitment to 2% but not in any binding way,and back to square one
Some Russian lads in Bakhmut are about to have a really bad night.
I expect that when the main Ukrainian offensive comes it will be like kicking in a rotten door.
Exactly,its as much psycological warfare as it is direct
And with the lies and promises these young men have been given from their Russian commanders and leadership in Kremlin,,only to see Ukrainan soldiers overunning your trenches full of hatred,isnt a situation you want to be in,to late to regret then.
And one advantage Ukraine have,they know their enemy and they know themselves and what they fight for.
Lets talk in 2024,and see what the situation is with Russia and China
It won't change a thing Nato hasn't changed a thing in decades,the best thing that could happen to Nato is for the US to pull back and tell the Europe you need to lead by example and stop expecting us to spend to protect Europe,
It's like our defense approach we don't need to spend anything sure the yanks will come and save us
Russia is years behind the west in almost everything that matters, average income, technology, population growth, life expectancy, health, education, levels of corruption etc. etc. And now they are clearly demonstrating to the world how inept their military are. The only excuse their military might have had is that their weapons are sub standard.
Air defence war between Russia and Ukraine: Kinzhal vs Patriot
Experts study how Ukraine managed to destroy a Russian hypersonic missile thought to be impossible to intercept
Still zero evidence it actually happened at all ,
The Americans Said the patriot intercepted a missle , not a kinzhal or dagger.
If a patriot hits another missle very little will be left of said missile and the what evidence that has been shown doesn't match a kinzhal missle,
Propaganda
Time will tell, seems to be some progress right now, as always I'd say let's see where we are by late summer
What do the talking heads on this thread reckon re the Ukrainian offensive.
If it has started would a drip feed of info around small breakthroughs be how it will play out?
Or would it be more likely we'll absolutely know when it kicks off?
Wrong,at the Wales Summit in 2014, NATO Leaders agreed that, within a decade, Allies who are spending less than 20% of their annual defence spending on major equipment will aim to increase their annual investments to 20% or more of total defence expenditures. In 2022, 24 Allies met the NATO-agreed 20% guideline compared to seven in 2014; and 24 Allies spent more in real terms on major equipment than they did in 2021.
Many new countries in the EU and former Soviet states have had major upgrades and modernisation of their defences.
And Russias invasion of Ukraine definately have changed alot since then
It has already started. Ukraine were not attacking anywhere up until the last few days. Now they are in several places along the line of contact
It is not going to happen all at once, it will be going on all summer
Jaysus, those shark missiles are 2 million pounds a pop.
Measure twice, cut once.
You've probably heard the term operational silence being kicked around. I expect that if Ukraine do want to launch a big attack somewhere, we'd hear about it only after it has begun, or at least that would be the aim.
Although it would frustrate those of us who hang on every bit of information that comes out re:Ukrainian advances, little concrete information is probably a very good thing. A rumour of a Ukrainian advance here, a supposed explosion there. A large column of tanks seen moving toward Bakhmut or one toward Melitopol. Huge group of lights seen over St Petersburg. Drone attack?
Noise and deception. Rumour and intrigue. The spectre of a counter-offensive; its shadow. That, in psychological terms, has nearly as much use as the real thing. The more the Russians panic and go crazy, the better.
In 2014 .
But in 2022 and all of the previous years it hasn't happened.
Soooo
More
Wagner still moving forward in bakhmut despite their flanks under attack
In other news, a wasp has this morning has advanced further into a venus fly trap. Expects to reach the nectar shortly and has poo-pooed rumours of the outer leaves closing around it as 'pure plant-based propaganda'.
Big or small, the Russkies have been on tenterhooks the last month or two, waiting for the "Big One", so when there's an attack of any kind, they jump big time, and especially when you think that most of them are not there by choice anyway.
The Kinzhal missiles are not sub standard. They are probably superior to the ATACMs Ukraine hasn't been supplied with. 6 of them were used in a missile wave a couple of months ago. All of them got through so likely took out their intended targets. That photo was of just one of the consequaences of those hits.
I recently saw an an analysis that concluded the Orcs do not have a single truly competent senior military leader, so ultimately Ukrainian victory is all but certain. Unfortunately, I don't think all their weapons are so poor as to not be dangerous. Their SU-35s are still capable of shooting down anything Ukraine has - before they are even detected. Their FAB 500 glide bombs work. With 500 Kg of explosives, it doesn't matter if their precision isn't quite as good as a western variant. Their missiles work well enough to have killed thousands of Ukrainians, and given how many they fielded in the last wave, they seem capable of making them fast enough to still be a serious problem.
Did you see the massive explosion in Pavlohrad? 34 injured, including 4 children, with 2 dead. Unfortunately, as well as storing some old missile boosters, it probably was a factory involved in the manufacture of rocket propellants and was a major loss for Ukraine, in addition to the civillian casualties. That was taken out because just 3 out of 18 missiles managed to get through the air defences.
Orc weapons mostly are not as good as the western ones Ukraine is being supplied with in small quantities, but unfortunately they are good enough to do the job and they are making more.
I don't think the "big one" has started myself and tbh don't know if/when it will. Their counterattack assaults around Bakhmut consisted of 2-3 tanks at most from what I read. If that's enough to make gains with minimal losses they might think it best to keep chipping away, like they appear to have been doing the past couple of weeks. If a major weakness is spotted from all the probing attacks and recon then maybe we might see a significant commitment of numbers to make a killer incision but they're going to be careful.
At this stage it's clear the Ukrainians are smart enough to know that only fools russian. Sorry 😶
Death of a thousand cuts...
Quote " and is now only 900 meters away from cutting the O0506 inside the city." My God, when advances are measured metre's practically, the 00506 reference may as well be on the dark side of the moon.
This, they're pushing when everyone around them is falling back. They'll be encircled if it continues like this.
In WW2 when the Germans were losing against the Russians there were still small places where they were winning even though they were losing overall.
Not to mention that many similarly high value targets will be within its range. Didn't the Moskva have sister ship?
Except head of wagner Prigozhin has been one of the first to come out and say that the situation on the flanks is "worst expected scenario happening" or something along those lines, so clearly they are aware of whats going on either side of them.
So I don't think anything is getting poo-pooed as propaganda. He's well aware of the situation and well able to order a withdrawal, question is, why doesn't he?
Hopefully there are no tricks up their sleeve and its just incompetence. They still have a large number of new T90Ms and other vehicles newly delivered to somewhere in Ukraine, as seen a few weeks back.
I know it’s the daily mail but it’s such a lovely headline- I hope it’s true:
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