Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Irish Times up to their old tricks again this morning. Headline "Irish house prices rise 8.9% in first three months of 2023".

When you get into it, it's actually an 8.9% increase in the median house price between Q1 2022 and Q1 2023. The rest of the article is pretty much an ad for some new property tech company.

If the IT frames it as a rise in 3 months when in reality its an 8% year on year rise, it is very misleading

My own two cents is that the slowdown, such as it is, will not last. The ballooning of prices in the last few years was caused by the state's reaction to the 'rona. I.e., shutting things down and flooding the country with funny money. Naturally, things cooled off when "normal" market conditions returned, and likely rate hikes and uncertainly played a role also.

However, the demand for housing here has not changed, and there is still plenty of money floating about. I would love to see a crash as we badly need one, but I just cannot see where it's coming from.

Of course you can measure it. if prices are dropping they are dropping for a reason. We have an under supply of properties and had ravenous demand up until last year that is a fact and yet with more and more increases in our population and no increase in supply we are now seeing prices dropping so why is that, the demand is still there, the only parameter that has changed is the access to cheap credit which was there 12 months ago and this access to cheap credit is no longer available to anyone getting a new mortgage and this has quelled demand this is a fact. We are facing at least 2 more interest hikes before July. Look proof is in the pudding lets see if current month on month decreases we are seeing continue for the rest of the year. So this basically boils down to affordability its not just the price of the property that people and banks have to factor in they now have to factor in the repayments and the good auld stress tests.

Is this Misinformation, malinformation, disinformation or fake news - Its a bollox story used by the mainstream to push narratives and agendas.

Imagine the Ditch or some 'disruptive' news outlets stated something so misleading - Politicians and the mainstream would have a field day attacking them and portraying them as 'fake news'

Been watching houses for 3 years now through some crazy times, but this with multiple bidders up to €1.23m after a few weeks on market might be the new record for craziness that I’ve seen.

https://huntersestateagent.ie/properties/17-anglesea-park-killiney-co-dublin/

Ok so if prices are so affordable and we have a record number of people looking to get on the property market and a near all time low stock of supply what does that tell you about affordability and why have we seen 5 month on month drops in the county that is the most desirable place to live in??. Price in simple economic terms is supply vs demand so its not garbage to come to the conclusion that if access to cheap credit has gone this has greatly increased the amount of people who would have been in a category of looking to buy a house to the category of those who can no longer afford to buy a house. (its not just the head line property price, its the repayments and the stress tests that banks have to do for every one before giving out a mortgage) Demand is being seriously diminished by interest rates otherwise prices would of continued going up and the proof is 5 month on month drops in the face of our ravenous demand vs p1ss poor supply paradigm. The proof of the point I am making is staring you in the face with those price drops.

Ha I saw that go up a few weeks ago, immediately thought it was very underpriced and would go for well over a million. They wouldn't give us a suitable viewing time so we said we'd leave it for a few weeks, might as well let somebody else go first and see what the actual price is going to be. It was €1.13m when we enquired at the start of the week 😱

I'm bidding on something else and am the only bidder thus far after nearly a month on the market, it needs work though so maybe the decent quality stuff is still in high demand. That Angelsea Park house is hardly in turn key condition either though.

The CSO have stated 5 month on month drops. In dublin its over 2% of a drop in the months from Oct 2022 to Feb 2023. Let me flip your argument on its head we have a near record level of low supply so if demand was not being diminished we would be seeing property price continue to rise as it was up until around Q3 of last year ye know just before interest rates started jacking upwards.

@awec

What is your definition of affordable?

Housing may be affordable to state bodies with deep pockets filled by many that are priced out and funds who pay no tax

What proportion of the non home owning population between age 25 and 40 can afford current prices in your opinion? My guess would be between 15 and 30% climbing as they age within that range.

What ever happens they borrowed and used it for revenue generating assets that move the country forward economically.

Water under the bridge, but builders were working on projects that now appear surplus to requirements like commercial real estate.

With regards labour, can always be sourced were the will to do so present. Many of our nurses are not even from the EU, despite the country educating sufficient numbers to cover our own needs. Many other examples of sectors that sourced labour internationally

Yeah, you’re definitely right that new build inflation has been remarkable since 2020. We’ve seen new builds near us increase their asking prices by €500-€600k (40%-50%) from their first soft launch two years ago and quickly selling out anyway.

With the cost of doing any work these days, I don’t blame people for wanting a walk in ready house - which that Anglesea house most certainty isn’t!

The clowns could not operate a bit more discretely. Now this is plastered all over international media, this will spark investigations into where this money is coming from