Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

We borrowed more in that time than any other to fund Nama and throw down the Anglo black hole.

Nama was very slow in releasing property to the market for fear of crashing the market and offloaded uk/foreign property first. It was 13/14 before any Irish property of note was seen on the market. They were notoriously slow and difficult to deal with with many buyers abandoning the process and buying in the private market instead.

Ronan lyons warned of the first supply concerns in Dublin in late 2012. Its notable that the state can set up a vehicle that can prevent prices from falling, but not use that same vehicle to tame rental and price inflation and supply on the other side

There is no “deadlock”.

immigration is positive, higher than building completions. And there are no net sellers - why would anyone sell to rent now?

irish property is simply too cheap.

I think that it depends on what you would call malice. I don't think that there is any secret cabal that cackles with joy whenever the homeless figures rise. That said, what I believe that there is is sheer indifference. No politician or seniour civil servant servant is ignorant of what the housing crisis is doing to Ireland. To me, to simply "not care" to such an extent is indeed malicious.

I see pepper finance were forced by the courts to honour a PIA for a couple with one of their vulture mortgages that is now fixed to 2.5% over 25 years.

Hope to see more of that now there's a precedent.

When we were looking to trade up a couple of years ago there was maybe 1 suitable house coming on to the market per month that we would be interested in. We got outbid all the time until eventually we decided to bid very high and won.

But ive kept the notifications and kept an eye on similar houses coming up just out of curiosity since then. Since last September, just 1 house that we would have been interested in has come up for sale.

Same for me in Limerick, went sale agreed 6 months ago, check every Myhome and Daft alert for the city as it comes into my email, there was not a single thing worth looking at in that time, my heart was in my throat waiting for the contracts to exchange these last few months, it literally aged me.

Forecast for interest rates, well worth a watch for prospective and current mortgage holders. US focussed but where they go all others follow

I do always think this is a bit unfair though. It’s profitable assuming the person pays. But on a basket of distressed loans, a fair chunk won’t, so the rate has to cover the underlying default rate of the portfolio overall.

I do feel a bit for those currently trapped with the likes of Pepper - but we must all accept the implications of imposing restrictions on ‘vulture funds’.

Amount vulture funds willing to pay traditional banks for distressed loans goes down. Overall cost at a portfolio level of default goes up for retail banks. Retail banks need to increase mortgage rates for everybody.

Im relatively ok with that in this instance but no doubt we’ll have SF jumping up and down to put restrictions of these funds then similarly complaining when we have the highest mortgage rates in Europe again in a few years. Totally ignorant to how it’s all connected.

There is people trapped in these mortgages through no fault of their own at rates up to 9%, its disgusting. I think your been a bit knee jerk.

Avant, though they’re insanely selective and have limited risk.

Non bank lenders include Haven, EBS, Finance Ireland, Avant, ICS.

Some these have restricted their lending, while others have higher rates as they are subject to market funding.

Question on this. Given that Pepper don't own the mortgage in this particular case should it not be assumed that it would be profitable for them irrespective of the rate on the mortgage? Is their profit not driven by the fee they receive to service the mortgage?

I wonder what leeway Pepper had in the court case to reveal the funding costs. Maybe they couldn't since they don't own the mortgage. The fund that owns the mortgage may not have given them permission to provide that information leaving Pepper with their half baked "its unfair" defense without anything to back it up.

I wonder since funding costs appeared to be the focus of the case if this was a deliberate tactic by the PIP.

Interesting to note that Pepper were willing to offer 3% variable.

Do you mind me asking why it’s taking so long to close? Seems to be a common theme but I can never understand why it takes so long.

Seems to be mostly down to solicitors being a joke, constantly going on annual leave, ignoring emails, random periods where they just stop working on your case for weeks and only start again after you ring them to ask what is going on etc. The sellers one sounds just as bad.