We won't know until tomorrow what and how many missiles were launched and how many were intercepted.
Only takes 1 to get through air defense and hit an ammo depot, doesn't mean Ukraine air defense is lacking.
It's also an area that's not on the usual list of targets, hard to imagine Ukraine either having an ammo depot or bringing in supplies for the offensive via railway (Russia claimed they hit the railway depot) and not having air cover. Usually with the mass missile launches you hear of air defense taking them down. It's also strange that from the take off of the bombers to the explosion was only a couple of minutes. Something about it all seems different than the usual mass missile launches.
17 bombers with the capacity to launch up 16 missles each ,or drop 20,000kgs of bombs ,
Whatever they went after it was specific and not a random fire and hope we hit something be it civilian or military
TU-160 heavy strategic bombers took off from Engels just under an hour a go. Reports range between 3 and up to 10. It looks like a very major assault is underway - unless it's just muscle flexing which seems highly unlikely.
Going to be long night in Ukraine, Russian submarines and other vessels on the move in the black sea as well,
Reports of missles inbound for ukraine .....
Hopefully it's not happening
...
This isn't good....
Looks like it could a grim night alright
Yeah some reporting up to 120 may have been launched including ship weapons
Bunker boy must have been passed about the oil refinery and terrified about the upcoming offensive
Wondering a couple of things
Have the leaks about low AA from the UAF convinced the Russians it was time to strike
Have the UAF delayed too long to begin the counter offensive and now the Russians are stopping it before they begin.
Seemingly they are still launching
Reports of NATO activity in Germany, Romania and Turkey. They could be trying to assess where these are heading and help the UAF out.
Some speculating that it's RAF Tornados in Turkey and probably completely unrelated.
Any reports of impacts or intercepts. It's been over an hour since the first reported launch and nothing... so far.
This is bizarre. An elaborate trolling by Russia? Reports of no missiles have entered the airspace of Ukraine.
Probably too early. First news reports.on twitter (even the reliable ones get it wrong) that some missiles had entered Ukranian airspace 30minutes ago.
But there are still reports that more launches are currently taking place.
Also bizarre that 31 minutes ago they said they had.
Also reports of Russian shelling in Kherson
More NATO movement
Edit: link not working
https://twitter.com/UKR_Report/status/1652842433288232962
Trolling usually means just launching bombers and using training frequencies.
All of the reports of launches have just been codes which you would expect with a launch.
It's a code, not a radar signature. Could be a change of training tactic or as you say trolling, but a new way to do it.
OSINTdefender stating they think first wave of missiles might be decoys to sniff out AA.
I don't think it's anything to do with the Crimea attack,the Russians airforce has been fairly active lately with regular strikes using missles and glide bombs , they have been launching drone and other weapons too ,but while many are getting intercepted they are also eating into the Ukrainans air defenses stocks , which unfortunately there is an infinite supply or stock readily available, look at the Israeli iron dome system probably the Air defense systems in the world but only activated if there's a chance of a mass loss of life due to the shear cost of Operating the system,
Russia has been slowly degrading the Ukrainans limited systems over the last few months yes we are seeing interceptions being celebrated we are also seeing more targets hit ,4 of one system and 3 of another is nowhere near enough to cover Ukraine,they need hundreds across the whole country as missles,bombs and drone can come from Crimea,the black sea, Russian territory and Belarus, there's just too many gaps to plug,
Calls for F16s won't change anything in the current climate despite some of the claims made lately ,the biggest help they could get in from Nato aircraft actively patrolling Ukrainian skies to deter and interpret Russian Aircraft,
They definitely haven't delayed the counter offensive,it could have been a disaster going off without the men , vehicles,tanks and supplies in place first along with other supports and during mud season,
They need to wait until everything is in place and they can stick to the plan,
Kermit may have called it correctly.
how do these decoys work?
Is there actually a missile launch, just code transmitted or are they dummy bombs?
Well whatever is the truth of what's actually happening tonight, NATO seem to be busy. Possibly as confused as i currently am lol.
Now claims of confirmation...
hiding real ones with the decoys?
Normal missle with no warheads , just a solid or similar nosecone,the cruise missle recently discovered in Poland was primarily designed for a nuclear weapon ,
You can also trick radars with radar signatures of weapons and aircraft so air defenses activate and launch at shadows essentially,
If the missiles are real the first of them would surely be beyond Ukraine airspace at this point?
If nothing in the Next few minutes it's safe to call it a night,
But I get the feeling reports might start coming in quickly
I'm not sure how they can be a decoy if there's no physical missile to waste an AA missile being launched.
It's not like Russia are scanning all of Ukraine for radar signatures and reprogramming the targets to target AA systems.
Not like they have stealth aircraft with HARM missiles etc...
Reports now, but not going to post unsubstantiated stuff. Apparently Ukraine officials have confirmed missiles have entered their airspace in the last few minutes.
Unfortunately I think we'll know shortly.
More launches reported from the sea of Azoz
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