If being an unaligned country with a large army is no deterrent to Putin's ambitions is it time for ROI to join Nato?
The Russian embassy have already layed a little egg suggesting we're a legitimate target of hybrid warfare following the Tánaiste's words of condolence to family of the man from Mayo.
If you want ignore the substance and implication of that directly worded threat to the state go ahead. Policy makers would be fools to do so.
I'll repeat, the Russian foreign ministry issued a threatening and intimidatory statement directed at the state, and you want to ask who on earth would be mean to us?
Anyone from anywhere that might choose to attack us for any reason whether sane or insane.
To draw a comparison with a country that is actually neutral, Switzerland. No one seriously expects anyone to invade Switzerland anytime soon but historically they have had that happen from all of their neighbours, so their country is geared toward repelling an invasion as soon as it might happen.
That means they can mobilise approx 2 million - fully equipped and armed - soldiers within three hours of a conflict starting. They can and do keep M16 assault rifles plus ammo, uniforms etc etc in the closet at home ready to go. That’s what being neutral actually requires.
With us, we’d probably be completely overwhelmed before most people knew anything had started. Therefore there almost certainly wouldn’t be any form of Irish state - ie an unoccupied territory with a continuing domestic military defence and functioning government - that wasn’t overrun, for other countries to supply munitions or aid too (which is what posters on this thread have claimed would be the case).
That’s not an argument for our current policy. Rather it’s clear evidence that the current policy is wholly inadequate and needs to be overhauled.
What would happen if we were currently invaded? Would our strategy be to ask an invader to put their invasion on hold and camp out where they landed while we spend a couple of months launching a recruitment drive followed by several months basic training so we could mount a defence against the invader? :-)
With us, we’d probably be completely overwhelmed before most people knew anything had started.
Unless someone has invented transporter technology this is very much not true.
Switzerland is surrounded on all sides! The only country that is ever going to realistically invade Ireland is the UK.
We're surely near the bottom of Russias list anyway.
The juice just cannot be worth the squeeze. And their bruised hands are a wee bit full for the foreseeable future.
You have heard about maritime invasions - only around for a couple of thousand years - plus the more recent parachuter led ones?
In both cases the objective is to land, seize an initial chunk of territory, bring additional troops and equipment into the seized territory and then using the additional troops and equipment to expand out of that initially seized territory. It’s a proven strategy and it does work. And there are a lot of countries that could pull that off.
And, as for your point about the U.K., were we actually neutral, as many incorrectly claim we are, that would require us to have the military defence capacity to defend against the U.K. too. And, in the absence of that level of capability, most countries join military defence alliances…
What squeeze?
F*cking around with Ireland in a hybrid warfare capacity or in our maritime area is consequenceless. We don't have any credible defence capacity and no mutual security with anyone who would ensure their ar*e gets reddened it if they did.
It is the idea that this would happen without significant warning that is ludicrous. We'd absolutely know it was coming. Beyond which the point or purpose of anyone doing it is beyond fanciful.
We are incapable of defending ourselves against the UK if they chose to invade - there is nothing we could do about that.
I'm ambivalent on joining NATO as I've said many times, have no strong feelings against it. But talk of marine and airborne invasions of Ireland is just a bit much.
There’s nothing ludicrous about it and it’s a major assumption to make that you’d have plenty of advance warning and loads of time to launch that recruitment drive, join a military alliance at the last minute etc.
And to point out the obvious, the Russian ambassador has issued us with a “significant warning” just days ago.
Lastly, to actually be neutral requires a country to be able to defend itself against all comers which would include the U.K. in our case - just as it includes France, Germany and Italy in Switzerland’s case. As I pointed out before the alternative for countries that can’t manage that is to join a military defence alliance (not necessarily NATO but it’s the only game in town in Europe at the moment).
I agree.
Neutrality is a worthless concept without the resources to back it up.
I have long argued that remaining non-aligned is a far greater impetus for building up our military capabilities, than joining NATO would be.
We're in a new and very dangerous World now kids, with shadow wars and strategic cyber and infrastructural sabotage going to be a big part of it.
Its pretty clear the Russians consider us no different to a Sweden or a Lithuania or a Croatia and Lord knows our senior Government figures have been at pains to express that we are NOT politically neutral, over this past 15 months.
So, its either a massive military and security investment in Ireland, or its NATO. Neither is not an option. Not any more.
I never said we'd have time to launch a recruitment drive or join a military alliance. You said it would be over before people even knew it was happening which is just hyperbolic nonsense.
Switzerland's plan isn't actually to defend itself for the record, its to immediately give up all the cities and retreat to the mountains.
They also rigged all of their bridges and tunnels with explosives to take them out, swiss nationals train to shoot their service rifles out to 800m + with iron sites accurately, something most militaries don't actually do ,
The "Swiss Redoubt" (i.e retreat to the Alps and seal off mountain passes), hasn't been their doctrine for many decades, perhaps up until the end of WW2 yes. Swiss doctrine is to defend the entire territory. Much of the Redoubt infrastructure has been dismantled.
They still maintain thousands of bunkers and fortresses throughout Switzerland a and they still keep in place the ability to remotely detonate bridges and tunnels, but they have cut military forces numbers and closed some of the redoubt fortresses and Defenses, but overall they will still operate certain doctrines if needs be
Defending the entire territory is impossible. Zurich and Bern aside, all the main cities are ludicrously vulnerable.
I suspect their actual doctrine is trust that the EU/NATO and various alliances they are surrounded by means that no defence is actually going to be necessary.
They used to (the bridges and tunnels) but I believe that has been stopped.
I think they actually kept the ability to remotely detonate certain infrastructure,
They've kept and maintain thousands of bunkers and gun positions, which suggests that they still operate incase of foreign aggression,
But oddly their airforce don't operate 24/7
yet very Swiss...
Ultimately their military needs are running into the fairly normal political problem that people don't want to pay for it anymore.
But yet are buying 36 F35s jets ,
And people complaining about us needing to massively increase defense capabilities
Commercial satellite imagery services are quite widely available and relatively cheap. So even our Govt has access to see what is where when they want, and thats if they only use the commercial ones, they also very likely have arrangements with other nations security agencies to receive information from their many ever vigilant military grade satellites.
Also a quick look at marine traffic tracking sites will reveal the huge number of commercial vessels out there, even in remote seas up by the Norwegian coast and Faroe islands. They're all communicating. A giant sprawling network, all keeping an eye out, reporting any noteworthy events over open radio frequencies. Anything noteworthy passing through commercial lanes will be widely reported.
So I think its safe to say if there was any major threat coming our way we'd very likely see it coming, or hear about it. Either directly through our own active intelligence services watching, or secondarily through the wide networks of communications which cover our globe for governmental or even just commercial reasons. It just takes one fisherman, or agent, or just 1 nerd (of which the planet has many), and our govt is alerted. To move a whole lot of ships over 6000 kms from Russia to Ireland, through a whole lot of traffic, while multiple satellites are looking on, and while multiple security services, and the public are routinely checking up on you, is going to have tiny odds of ever being a surprise to anyone.
So, its probably safe enough to say that we're not waking up to news of any invasion. Just too much tech out there.
That's you're security doctrine. Hoping a "nerd" or fishing vessels anticipate threats. You should really write to the Department of Defence.
yeah, it can be a bit of a schizophrenic country really.
For what its worth I think we should invest heavily in our navy but I'm pretty ambivalent about the need for jets for the air corps.
Well no, Im saying its next to impossible to sneak a substantial force up to a distant island these days. You're going to be seen, by any number of means. Trade vessels, satellites, commerical and govt entities, and the general public.
If you disagree go ahead, tell me how. (is it submarines?)
Lads Don't worry I've an idea let's scrap the defense forces and the fishermen will protect us ,
Don't know wether to laugh or cry
Nerds and fishing boats. Genius.
You really hate that I'm right.
Feels good.
Your record on the thread has been an oscillation between concocted history, a complete ignorance of Irish legislative and constitutional reality, Kremlinite fake news and dissident republican denial-of-reality. You're security doctrine of Donegal fishermen and nerds in basements is icing on the cake.
If you feel good after all that, well, I'll just say that Prince Andrew apparently felt pretty good after his infamous ITV interview as well.
And the only solution is Nato? Joining such an alliance on that basis would be beyond foolish.
Again, who is going to launch this maritime invasion?
The hybrid warfare threat is at least realistic
So tell me is it possible in these days to sneak a substantial naval force up to a distant island without being seen.
Yes or no.
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