This is frighteningly plausible scenario. Hit the nuclear site and claim it was the Ukrainians
One million shells is still only about 2500 a day.
The scale of the ammunition shortfall is incredible.
One million a month would be better but not possible and the political will is not in Europe for that.
Bad Day for Russia. Oil depot in Sevastopol gone and large chemical warehouse in Iran gone up in smoke.
Sorry I was going by your maths that they are using 7,000 shells a day and are only getting 40,000.
That wouldn’t do them for than 4-5 days.
only 2 places in Russia fit your description of new russia there, St Petersburg and Moscow.
the rest of it is largely the same or even regressed since the Soviet Union collapsed.
The following is a big unknown and I never see it factored in by any boardie and it is this. In all USSR/moscoys’s /Russia’s wars up to recently/now the population sourced to provide soldiers was very rural , very ‘compliant/obedient/willing’, easily influenced / little education, period of no mobile phones, little or no immigration to the west or anywhere else outside USSR/Russia, state in complete control of communications and soforth.
BUT because of progress in general in recent times -especially in education , improvement in general knowledge on an international level and most especially in the whole ICT sector you are dealing with a totally different mindset. The question then is will the potential conscripts have the same attitude/ interest / willingness/ eagerness in going to war as their predecessors ? Only time will tell.
Another careless smoking related incident in moskovyte controlled territory with an oil refinery near Sevastopol on fire:
The only fact I can be certain of from your post is that you have a high opinion of yourself.
One massive difference between Russia and Ukraine is their artillery accuracy, especially counter battery ability.
Second massive difference is that Ukraine won’t be crossing fields like it’s WW1 as the Russians were. Google Bradley IFV for starters.
A third massive difference is that Ukraine are fighting an existential battle. They won’t give in.
A fourth massive difference is YOUR over reliance on what Russia can produce and purchase compared to Ukraine (who have their own manufacturing facilities) and the West can produce. You reference a French problem. Which do you think gets resolved first, a bit of politics or Russian production incompetence. Do you think Poland etc won’t supply Ukraine.
Finally, what do you think more likely if Ukraine stalls and falls back…
my money would be on two, but I doubt it will get that far.
You should have more faith in Ukraine’s ability/resolve to fight and equally in Russia’s incompetence.
Ukraine will prevail regardless of the outcome of a particular offensive.
Oh, and finally - Russia’s economy - you don’t think that’s hurting massively, GTFO!
Maybe Xi did a deal with Zelensky for rebuilding?
They should be declared a terrorist group,and that's opens them to counter terrorist operations and strikes,
Wether it be Sudan ,Mali or libya they should be taken out with air or drone strikes ,
Wagner fighting in Sudan.
Time to take the head off that particular snake, seize all its assets, stop any money flowing and take over control of its information technology. Wagner must cease to exist.
@[Deleted User] You’re missing the basic fact Ukraine will not give in. What then? They keep going.
You need a hell of a lot of weapons and ammunition to keep going, former Soviet countries have emptied their stocks of older equipment and vehicles,they were promised 1 million artillery shell and in 5 months only received 40,000 ,
I understand the Ukrainans better than you , take off the blinkers and look around in the real world, inflation is hitting every country in Europe and further afield, unfortunately sooner or later if the Ukrainans don't make substantial gains,they could end up in real trouble with a long drawn out frozen conflict only where Russia occupies 15% percent of Ukraine instead of Donbas and Crimea,
I'm the one who said they can take back all of the occupied territories long before anyone posted on this thread,long before,
But the reality is if they don't achieve large Gains in the coming offensive, there won't be an endless supply of vehicles, weapons and artillery from international supporters, Russia is still raking in billons while ukraine has lost some of it's most valuable commodities,
This a fact,
Just strange you reference a photo being recently released showing 155mm shells not detonating on a thread about a war in Ukraine, which also use 155mm shells which Russia don't use, with zero reference made to the photo not being related to Ukraine.
If you read the actual post the I replied to jmreire made ,
I made no reference to Ukrainan dud 155 artillery,
Zero reference to Ukrainan artillery,
The Post that was referred to was discussing Russians issues .
Embarrassed or what
Not what I said at all ,
They were promised 1 million shells for the the whole of 2023 we're 5 months in and they have only received 40,000 shells, France has blocked production and purchasing of shells for ukraine,
If they had 1 million shells ready to go they would be a great position but they only have a fraction of that,
While there is claims they fire less thats going to have to change for the coming counter offensive, you cant have mass movement of men and vehicles with no aircover without massive artillery barrages to protect them as they move forward, because the Russian run artillery at timea no stop around the clock,
If you can't counter that artillery men and vehicles out in the open will face the exact same problem the Russians faced at Vuhledar and bakhmut crossing open ground and getting anilated with artillery
There was a photo released recently showing hundreds of impacts from 155 artillery in but no craters from detonations .
Did you ever post that photo?
If Putin decides to escalate to nuclear level's you can be guaranteed he'll go for a Chernobyl 2.0 in the south with Zaporozhye. Won't cause anywhere near the western reaction dropping an actual nuke would and they'll claim the Ukrainians were equally to blame.
F16s won't give them air superiority not even close ,
It will give them great multirole strike aircraft if they ever get them ,but even the Americans said recently the Ukrainans list of most wanted equipment modem jets barely make the top 10 list , despite various claims by various sources, pilots will take time to train proficiently in all aspects of the aircraft and it's various weapon's and sensors ,
It's not to take 10-14 days it will months possibly a year and that before you train maintenance crews to keep the jets in the sky , Western aircraft such as the f16/18s, typhoons take serious time to maintain,and that's before the Russian anti aircraft systems including manpads have to be avoided,so far other the the HARM /wild weasle missions the Ukrainian airforce have been restricted to flying low level and volley firing unguided rockets , because they are susceptible to Russian air defenses and manpads,
Where the Russians are Able to fly into the blacksea and Crimea and lunch various missles and glide bombs from 70+km to over 100 +km away,
Russia still has hundreds of aircraft including medium and heavy bombers yes Russian pilots are pretty **** but they are still a danger that the Ukrainans haven't been able to neutralise
You’re missing the basic fact Ukraine will not give in. What then? They keep going.
This may mean the war goes on another 2+ years, but Ukraine will not give in.
Russia (who even you eventually grasped) don’t have infinite weapons, but if they continue to shell civilian populations, Ukraine will not give in.
If this fact is too boring for you, and you lose ‘internet points’ there’s nothing you can do about it. Ukraine will not give in.
If Ukraine don’t progress as much as Gatling thinks they should during this offensive Ukraine will not give in.
You are also making another basic mistake, you think Putin will be happy to accept a peace deal (assuming Ukraine will 🙄) based on keeping what he has taken, what makes you think he’s that rational?
So, I’d like to finish by reminding you, Ukraine will NOT give in.
If this still isn’t sinking in you might go back to that old teacher tactic… write out ‘Ukraine will not give in’ 1,000 times.
UKR Panzer fists being assembled. Not long to go…..
"We do not know who Finbar Cafferkey was, except that for whatever reason he was fighting in a foreign land"
Disgraceful comment from the Embassy of Russia in Ireland to our Tánaiste. It would be great if Micheál Martin would ask the Embassy of Russia why his country is fighting in a foreign land.
What
I think people confuse Russia with the Soviet Union.
In Soviet times, I'm sure they could mass produce pretty much anything, they done it with artillery and tanks, but this it's just Russia now.
Where's all the modern tanks? The T-90 & T-14 are Russian tanks, I'm sure they can mass produce them yeah?
No, they are dragging.... (checks history book) 70 year old soviet tanks out of the scrap yards.
Artillery is great at a stalemate, where both sides are dug in and little movement, but (excluding the quick land grab in the first 2 months of the war, with less artillery used) Russia have gained **** all despite their artillery advantage. With (insert multiplier) x more artillery shells fired by Russia in the past 12 months. Russia gained 0.55% of Ukraine.... but Ukraine gained 8.13% back. (net Russian loss of 7.58%) So with all this artillery benefit.... how come Russia can't gain land?
I certainly agree with the holding back of key weapon systems to Ukraine, ATACM's/Jets/Cluster munitions.... I'd even add in cruise missiles. Are the West waiting for Ukraine to fall or fail before they give them everything they need? Or afraid of it being seen as an escalation?
By your maths, Ukraine only have 4 days left.
Over the next 2 years of the war. Russia will, hands down. It has the factories in place already but most importantly it has the will to produce them.a
If the West was somewhat serious about it, they would blow the reds apart within months. If.
In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king.
That a ficged up country like Russia can do ground and pound better than the entire West is not an endorsement of them, just a reflection on the tragedy of foreign policy in the West over 30 years.
Winning for Russia is holding most of what they have. If that means a million dead and an economy in tatters, they'll take it.
My approach is a much more muscular backing of Ukraine than seen to date or that would ever be tolerated by much of Western Europe.
There is an epic amount of bs spoken in Western Europe about backing Ukraine but the reality is much harder.
Scandalous remarks by the Russian Embassy here re Finbarr Cafferkey. There's a threatening tone there as well. Time Mr Filatov was called in for a chat and then told to take the next flight home.
Considering America has by far the most amount of Western tanks and the first Abram won't be arriving until September at the earliest shows Ukraine won't be running out of donated armour ever. As for air superiority they'll get that any year America decides they can get F16's. No shortage of Bradley's and other APC's either.
The only shortage is artillery but both sides suffer with this.
Point being Ukraine are more accurate with artillery than Russia is. The discussion was also around shell artillery and not rocket artillery.
Did you ever post the picture of the 155mm dud shells supplied to Ukraine yet?
Your not grasping the basics on the argument,
It's well documented that if the Ukrainans don't make large gains during the counter offensive they could we end up in a position where international backers don't have the supplies or vehicles to keep a long offensive going,
Here's simple one for you, ukraine were promised 1 million artillery rounds for the whole of 2023 ,were into may this week and Ukraine has only received a fraction of the 1 million shells promised I think 40,000 ,if they are going through 7000 shells rapidly how long do they have before those artillery strikes get restricted,they don't have unlimited aircover,so the thousands of new armoured vehicles including tanks and Ifvs will he heavily reliant on artillery to cover their advances the same applies to mass infantry movements,
But before you mention nato and the eu France is currently blocking the production and purchasing of artillery and other ammunition,
If Russia has more guns and more ammunition and can source more than nato can , what then ,
Russia can still reduce cities to rubble with artillery and air strikes they are still dangerous no matter how incompetent there leadership is
Russia had to go to Iran and North Korea for shells, Ukraine can get more from the West. Looking at it long term, which side can produce more?
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://we.vanillicon.com/v2/e050b53be62f0ae2404c620976170938.svg)
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://we.vanillicon.com/v2/eedacf599b4135dfd56d6fdbddcbd867.svg)
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://w8.vanillicon.com/v2/82d003fd2122b93acc890998f11fd913.svg)
