General Mud has control of the battlefield, the Ukrainians don't want to get their shiny new tanks all dirty for no reason so will wait until Mud makes a retreat. Spare a thought for the infantry who are supposed to accompany the tanks. They don't work best when up to their knees in thick glue. The previous territory regaining offensives were characterized by speed.
This has to be the most intelligent comment I have seen concerning a potential peace process. The Chinese need to take note; it's positively Confucian in it's inherent pertinence:
To put forward peace proposals, one must first visit Ukraine - Borrell
24.04.2023
Long before the Russians were forced to withdraw, I said the supply situation was untenable for them.
Hope so; good riddance.
Looking at the map circling the city's and towns is not bringing any tactical insight,of course they are going to have defense lines around the cities and towns, Mariupol is going to be one of the primary targets in any counter,
What were they thinking in the first place?
That's a shame :-)
The Russians are clearly prepared for a strike south towards the Sea of Azov and have picked seemingly logical locations to build defences. However, you'd wonder about the quality of those defences. Decaying Dragons Teeth and pillboxes made of likely the same quality of concrete? The mines themselves might not even be viable anymore after rotting in Soviet storage (although mines are unfortunatly bastards for longegity)
A lack of managment or intelligence on the Russian side might also ensure that they efforts won't work as intended. I'm hopeful that the AFU will have good intelligence about the Russian defences ahead of an offensive.
you picked a selection of major towns with major road and rail crossings ...
master strategist, absolutely no one would have thought of fortifying them, please don't let the Ukrainian military move one step further without your wisdom.
I don't think the first part of what you said is accurate.
I asked last year what were people's expectations around the ending of this. A lot of folks said Ukraine would retake Crimea by Summer 2023, I seem to remember one prominent person here suggesting that Crimea would be liberated by April 2023.
Most of the stuff you read here that's trying to be pro-Ukraine propaganda is having the opposite effect. All the silliness that Russia are suffering casualties at a rate of 10:1, that they are running out of stuff, that they are close to collapse, etc. only works in the Russians favour.
Unless it's a very elaborate deception, the critical ammunition shortages that the Ukrainians are currently having only confirms what I have been saying for a long time here - that the West don't seem serious about providing Ukraine with what they need to win.
Absolut won't be going to Russia after a huge backlash from the swede's themselves,
I was spamming Jameson with emails and social medias messages listing every warcrime , photos from bucha, Mariupol theater,Kiev and Odessa, couldn't even get a reply or acknowledgement from them,
Fair play to the Ukrainans who had flyers and digital advertising against them .
French owners what do you expect
😁
The wisdom here a few months back was that the Russians fortifications were a joke, that the Russians would collapse, or run away, or that they would be easily bypassed.
I guess we will see just how funny they are when Ukrainians have to die trying to take them because of an unwillingness to supply Ukraine with what it needs to end the war.
There digging deep trenches ,ok so Nato and the US gave them bridgeing vehicles they can easily roll over trenches and keep going if needs be ,we know they are actively getting nato intelligence from the air and likely satellites too , these big defenses can all be bypassed one way or another,
It's not going to be a one sided fight unfortunately as we've seen in bakhmut Ukraine will take losses hopefully not enough to slow any progress,
Actually I'd love to see unidentified aircraft accidentally on purpose bomb Russian defenses to punch large holes along the lines just to give a hand,
it's been well documented that they have been digging in since the start of the mud season, so you're not presenting some sort of revelation....
how well those fortifications are, are a different thing.... considering the mess the Ukrainians made of the Russian's in Vuhledar, similar tactics would make it quite easy to lay siege to problematic fortifications while manoeuvring round easier flanks... you will get a week max in trenches, I'd imagine a day or two if you bombard it.
Russia has 200k casualties, Ukraine has 120k casualties according to figures in the US military.
Actually I think we do agree on the first point. What I meant was the same people confidently predicting Crimea back in Ukrainian hands by this summer will be predicting the same thing next year, the timeline is just always pushed back every couple of months. Same with Russians having no ammunition left. Whereas in the real world the BBC this week ran an article saying the Ukrainian lack of ammunition could be a key factor in this counter offensive.
A year ago I quoted a military guy who said what to me is still the simplest and most plausible summary of the war so far: neither side is strong enough for outright victory, but neither side can afford to lose (Ukraine for existential reasons, Putin because he'd be ousted from power). Hence here we are one year later
I started talking about it about 6 months ago when people were laughing and joking about how easy it would be for the Ukrainians to get through them.
Let's see if your prediction that a Russian line will last for a week (max) when the Ukrainians launch their counter attack.
The casualties rates for the conflict sonl far is 1:1 to 1:1.8 , while 1:10 or 1:7 and so on has been bandied around for a good while the casualties rates are quite close,but that will likely change during upcoming counter offensive, especially now the Ukrainans will have a much bigger and better organised forces along with vehicles, tanks,IFVs and heavy weapons that they didn't have access to 12 months ago,if they neutralise Russian artillery off the bat , Russian forces will be in serious trouble,that's their only read advantage is 24/7 heavy artillery strikes
Russian disinformation to fool the Ukrainians? It seems to be the case on any other story from this war from Russia why not in this case.
make a note of it in your diary - "gloat for internet points to some random on the internet"
You do a lot of guessing, a lot of it to the misinfortune of Ukraine. So far your guessing has been wrong, thankfully. Sad though it is for you I am delighted.
Even before this episode I thought he looked a bit frail.
The article was published before the leak and cited US military sources.
Any more supplies to bakhmut will have to go on foot through muddy fields or the elusive underground tunnels
For me the course of the war is fairly obvious. Neither side can win an outright victory and the west will never give Ukraine what it needs for a swift win. They want to drip feed the Ukrainians equipment to slowly grind the Russian's down and hopefully push Putin out of power but the risk of complete swift humiliation for Russia risks Putin doing something stupid like using nukes and the west won't take that chance.
It's probably a smart strategy from the west as for as long as western soldiers aren't returning home in body bags the general public are more interested in the latest football scores or who's been voted out of the jungle on ITV than the plight of Ukraine so the politicians aren't worried.
Exactly. People exclaim "Peace talks" as if it was some kind of magical incantation that will fix things instantly.
I do need to supplement the Ruble payments I've been receiving from the Kremlin.
hang in there... you'll be able to own non skid marked underwear some day.
Yeah he doesn't like the he did 12 months ago,he's really aged
Yes, my Russian propaganda from the New York Times.
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