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Boards weather forecast contest for April 2023

M.T. Cranium · 2023-03-30T07:12:30+00:00

* Predict the IMT (average monthly temperature for five locations, 1981-2010 average was 8.4 C) * Predict the MAX at the 25 locations normally reporting on the met.ie website. * Predict the MIN at the 25 locations normally reporting on the met.ie website. * Predict the PRC as a percentage of normal (based on eleven…

M.T. Cranium

Predict the IMT (average monthly temperature for five locations, 1981-2010 average was 8.4 C)
Predict the MAX at the 25 locations normally reporting on the met.ie website.
Predict the MIN at the 25 locations normally reporting on the met.ie website.
Predict the PRC as a percentage of normal (based on eleven locations around Ireland).
Predict the SUN as a percentage of normal (based on six locations around Ireland).
BONUS: Predict the maximum temperature at Oak Park on Easter Sunday 9th of April.

Deadline for on-time entries is 0300h Saturday 1st of April. The usual late penalties apply. MIN forecasts with access to reported values overnight 1st-2nd will also have a 15/20 scoring cap as well as the late penalty, applied only if that forecast succeeds from known information.

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pauldry

Tomorrow looks like a MAX of 12c in Oak Park so yall prob be scoring bottom up MTC. (Me zero!)

M.T. Cranium

After the first week of April ...

IMT on 8.8 which is 0.7 above normal.

MAX 15.7 (Mountdillon 7th) _ no doubt will be higher later anyway

MIN -1.4 (also Mountdillon 7th and Mullingar)

PRC 71% of normal

SUN 98.7% of normal

Bonus awaits tomorrow.

WolfeEire

Max of 12.1c up to midday at Oak Park

M.T. Cranium

The outcome was 12.3 and Pauldry was correct about how this would be scored except that I started the table with scores of 1/10. Generally groups of two but some tighter clusters of three similar scores with 25 forecasts plus Con Sensus and NormaL.

FORECASTER ______________ Oak Park 9th ___ Score

Pauldry ___________________ 17.1 __________ 1

200motels _________________16.8 ___________1

MrSkinner _________________ 16.2 __________ 1

Joe Public _________________ 15.5 ___________2

john mac __________________15.4 ___________2

Kindred Spirit ______________ 15.3 ___________2

DOCARCH _________________ 15.1 ___________3

Bsal ______________________15.0 ___________3

Cornerstonelad _____________14.8 ___________ 3

sryanbruen ________________ 14.6 ___________4

Dasa29 ___________________14.5 ___________ 4

Gonzo ____________________14.3 ___________ 5

WolfeEire _________________ 14.3 ___________ 5

___ Con Sensus ____________ 14.3 ___________ 5

Mr Stonewall _______________14.2 ___________ 6

Adam240610 ______________ 14.1 ___________ 6

Sunflower3 ________________ 13.9 ___________ 7

Tae laidir __________________ 13.7 ___________ 7

Rameire ___________________13.6 ___________ 8

Appledrop _________________ 13.5 ___________ 8

Dacogawa _________________ 13.2 ___________ 9

Jpmarn ___________________ 13.2 ____________9

___ NormaL ________________12.8 ___________10

waterways _________________ 12.0 __________ 10

M.T. Cranium _______________ 11.7 __________ 10

_________________________________

appledrop

Thanks M.T a good few 12 recorded throughout the day at Oak Park so we will have to wait and see what the highest one is.

Happy Easter everyone🐣

M.T. Cranium

Meteociel says 12.3, but we won't know for sure until Met E confirm that. Also having a dull weather day here, snow very slowly disappearing from the neighbour's lawn, robins finding enough bare ground to keep them interested. A bit cooler here though, 5 C. Our normal probably passes your normal around mid-April and stays ahead until mid-October. This past winter we started with a sudden reversal and the winter has been with us ever since about the 20th of October although it feels vaguely spring-like here now (until you look around). Down in the nearby Columbia valley, no snow left down there at all and grass greening up, but no sign of any budding activity around here. Down at the coast they have cherry blossoms out and trees are coming along. How about there? Trees opening out yet?

mr.stonewall

Tree buds are slowly opening a subtle thing of green coming back to hedgerows. The sudden swings in coolness of temps to a bit of warmth. Is holding things back.

On the important front, personally grass growth is running behind by about about a week to 10 days. The impact of march on soil moisture deficits has been huge and will take a bit do time to sort a spring drying.

M.T. Cranium

The scoring posted earlier has been confirmed above, from 12.3 C. Waterways at 12.0 had the closest forecast. NormaL was 0.5 off and I was 0.6 low. Dacogawa and JPmarn were 0.9 higher at 13.2.

pauldry

-2.5c Mullingar

Tae laidir

Must have been corrected.

Only shows -0.1 now.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120476733#Comment_120476733

The -2.5C was this morning which will be shown tomorrow.

DOCARCH

Min. of -2.6c at Mount Dillon yesterday.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120480045#Comment_120480045

Says -2.7C now.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT on 8.2, with the second week average 7.6, 0.8 below normal.

MAX 15.4 and MIN -2.7

PRC up to 131% after a wet second week (190%). This guarantees an outcome of at least 60% plus whatever else falls.

SUN at 96% of normal with the second week average at 93%.

BONUS already scored (Oak Park 12.3 C on 9th),

I would imagine about half the field would be happy to see the established MIN hold on, but just for fun I will post a table of what each forecaster needs to maximize their score for April. (separate post in a few minutes)

M.T. Cranium

Required averages or outcomes for maximum scoring

As mentioned in previous post, these are the values you would need to maximize your score; they refer to the interval 15th to 30th. Every forecaster retains the same maximum as we are nowhere near it yet. For MIN, either a score or a future lower minimum is shown. Also your bonus score is shown. Late penalties are included in the final entry, your potential score if all the second half outcomes work out.

FORECASTER ______________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___BONUS __ Score (max possible)

Kindred Spirit _____________ 10.4 _ 20.0 _ -2.8 _ 040 _ 130 ___ (02) ____ 92

Sunflower3 _______________ 10.3 _ 21.4 _ (20) _ 050 _ 106 ___ (07) ____ 97

Dacogawa ________________ 10.2 _ 22.4 _ (06) _ 000 _ 126 ___ (09) ____ 85

Joe Public ___ (-4) _________ 10.1 _ 22.4 _ -3.9 _ 054 _ 145 ___ (02) ____ 88

Tae laidir _________________ 10.1 _ 21.1 _ -2.9 _ 098 _ 108 ___ (07) ____ 97

Gonzo ______ (-2) _________ 10.1 _ 20.4 _ (15) _ 026 _ 130 ___ (05) ____ 88

Pauldry __________________ 10.1 _ 19.4 _ (14) _ 070 _ 145 ___ (01) ____ 85

Adam240610 ______________10.0 _ 19.8 _ (11) _ 056 _ 110 ___ (06) ____ 87

Bsal ______________________9.5 _ 20.0 _ -3.0 _ 064 _ 114 ___ (03) ____ 93

Appledrop _________________ 9.5 _ 19.2 _ -2.8 _ 090 _ 087 ___ (08) ____ 98

Mr Stonewall _______________9.2 _ 19.5 _ (15) _ 020 _ 126 ___ (06) ____ 91

john mac __________________8.9 _ 21.6 _ -3.1 _ 120 _ 116 ___ (02) ____ 92

___ Con Sensus ____________ 8.9 _ 20.1 _ -2.8 _ 054 _ 120 ___ (05) ____ 95

200motels _________________8.9 _ 21.3 _ (14) _ 048 _ 109 ___ (01) ____ 85

DOCARCH _________________ 8.8 _ 20.2 _ (02) _ 054 _ 126 ___ (03) ____ 75

MrSkinner ___ (-1) __________8.8 _ 20.1 _ (14) _ 062 _ 116 ___ (01) ____ 84

sryanbruen ________________ 8.8 _ 19.6 _ -4.1 _ 040 _ 107 ___ (04) ____ 94

waterways _________________8.7 _ 22.0 _ -3.0 _ 068 _ 124 ___ (10) ___ 100

___ NormaL ________________8.6 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 070 _ 107 ___ (10) ___ 100

WolfeEire __________________8.6 _ 19.1 _ -3.0 _ 030 _ 122 ___ (05) ____ 95

Rameire __________________ 8.4 _ 20.0 _ (04) _ 060 _ 091 ___ (08) ____ 82

M.T. Cranium ______________ 8.4 _ 19.4 _ (18) _ 036 _ 116 ___ (10) ____ 98

Dasa29 ___________________8.2 _ 19.0 _ (13) _ 070 _ 126 ___ (04) ____ 87

Jpmarn ___________________8.1 _ 19.5 _ -3.8 _ 020 _ 145 ___ (09) ____ 99

Cornerstonelad _____________8.0 _ 20.9 _ -3.9 _ 028 _ 145 ___ (03) ____ 93

______________________________________

_________________________________

pauldry

It's over 20c in Shannon and Athenry currently

Scratch that Mt Dillon now 21c giving it the min and max for month.

DOCARCH

High of 21.4c yesterday at Mount Dillon.

M.T. Cranium

Updated potential scoring table

See the previous version for details, this new version accounts for the MAX of 21.4 reported yesterday. As with MIN, you either see a score for that, or a future value you would prefer. If we don't increase on 21.4, your potential score would drop in the same way that was explained for MIN not changing later.

FORECASTER ______________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___BONUS __ Score (max possible)

Kindred Spirit _____________ 10.4 _ (06) _ -2.8 _ 040 _ 130 ___ (02) ____ 78

Sunflower3 _______________ 10.3 _ (20) _ (20) _ 050 _ 106 ___ (07) ____ 97

Dacogawa ________________ 10.2 _ 22.4 _ (06) _ 000 _ 126 ___ (09) ____ 85

Joe Public ___ (-4) _________ 10.1 _ 22.4 _ -3.9 _ 054 _ 145 ___ (02) ____ 88

Tae laidir _________________ 10.1 _ (17) _ -2.9 _ 098 _ 108 ___ (07) ____ 94

Gonzo ______ (-2) _________ 10.1 _ (10) _ (15) _ 026 _ 130 ___ (05) ____ 78

Pauldry __________________ 10.1 _ (00) _ (14) _ 070 _ 145 ___ (01) ____ 65

Adam240610 ______________10.0 _ (04) _ (11) _ 056 _ 110 ___ (06) ____ 71

Bsal ______________________9.5 _ (06) _ -3.0 _ 064 _ 114 ___ (03) ____ 79

Appledrop _________________ 9.5 _ (00) _ -2.8 _ 090 _ 087 ___ (08) ____ 78

Mr Stonewall _______________9.2 _ (01) _ (15) _ 020 _ 126 ___ (06) ____ 72

john mac __________________8.9 _ 21.6 _ -3.1 _ 120 _ 116 ___ (02) ____ 92

___ Con Sensus ____________ 8.9 _ (07) _ -2.8 _ 054 _ 120 ___ (05) ____ 82

200motels _________________8.9 _ (19) _ (14) _ 048 _ 109 ___ (01) ____ 84

DOCARCH _________________ 8.8 _ (08) _ (02) _ 054 _ 126 ___ (03) ____ 63

MrSkinner ___ (-1) __________8.8 _ (07) _ (14) _ 062 _ 116 ___ (01) ____ 71

sryanbruen ________________ 8.8 _ (02) _ -4.1 _ 040 _ 107 ___ (04) ____ 76

waterways _________________8.7 _ 22.0 _ -3.0 _ 068 _ 124 ___ (10) ___ 100

___ NormaL ________________8.6 _ (11) _ -3.0 _ 070 _ 107 ___ (10) ____ 91

WolfeEire __________________8.6 _ (00) _ -3.0 _ 030 _ 122 ___ (05) ____ 75

Rameire __________________ 8.4 _ (06) _ (04) _ 060 _ 091 ___ (08) ____ 68

M.T. Cranium ______________ 8.4 _ (00) _ (18) _ 036 _ 116 ___ (10) ____ 78

Dasa29 ___________________8.2 _ (00) _ (13) _ 070 _ 126 ___ (04) ____ 67

Jpmarn ___________________8.1 _ (01) _ -3.8 _ 020 _ 145 ___ (09) ____ 80

Cornerstonelad _____________8.0 _ (15) _ -3.9 _ 028 _ 145 ___ (03) ____ 88

______________________________________

Your maximum possible score if MIN does not get colder and you are at a colder value is your current "maximum possible score" minus 1 point per 0.1 your MIN is below -2.7; e.g. Appledrop is at 97 instead of 98, JPmarn is at 88 instead of 99, if MIN does not move down. The same logic applies to the new MAX of 21.4. However, if we do see a warmer MAX there will likely be a boost required.

Congrats to sunflower3 who so far has hit both MAX and MIN on the actual values to date.

Note: as we get rain, some of the lowest required rainfalls will be exceeded and actual scores will begin to replace those lowest values, if I do update this table again before end of the month.

Jpmarn

This little place in Co. Roscommon gets on the map when it comes to temperature. Mt. Dillon so far is the hottest and coldest place this month responsible for both MAX and MIN.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT is 9.0, third week average 10.1 C (1.3 above normal).

MAX 21.4 and MIN -2.7

PRC is now 95% of normal, after quite a dry week (24% of normal). This raises the guaranteed outcome to at least 67%.

SUN is up to 108% of normal, with this past week quite bright (133.3%).

BONUS already scored from 12.3 C ...

... will update the best possible scoring information next.

M.T. Cranium

Basically for IMT near top of forecast table, a near average week is required, for those near bottom, coldest possible outcomes from guidance, would say most likely outcome from current 9.0 is around 9.2 at end of month (a few days of below average temps now, but warming back to slightly above normal).

MAX and MIN are probably set but could change slightly too.

PRC is more likely to go up a bit than down, but probably won't change much from current 95%.

SUN may end up very close to normal.

I may have a go at revising the values needed or just estimating scores, not sure which is preferable but will wait a day or two to see how some forecast issues are resolving, you can continue to use the previous table realizing that almost half the required values from that are now known, so for most near the higher portion of the forecast table, the required IMT is about what is being predicted now, and for many a relatively dry week would be good, sunshine amounts required for rest of the month are fairly close to a departure of three times what you predicted overall since after today's rather cloudy outcome, the actual value for 22 days will be close to normal, so if you went for 110% you will need about 130 per cent now, if you went for 90% then 70% for the remainder of the month would be good. It's going to be about the same situation for PRC given the slight increase in rainfall over the weekend.

M.T. Cranium

Updated preliminary scoring table

I have changed the format to scores on most likely outcomes, as shown in the first line of the table, which remains in forecast table order. The scores for MAX and MIN are either best possible for already established values, or your current score for those, with an asterisk showing that those scores could improve. (anyone without asterisks would not want to see new values established as their current scores would drop). Some very good scores in this estimated outcome.

FORECASTER _____________ IMT _MAX _MIN _PRC _SUN ___BONUS __ Score

___ Estimated values _______ 9.2_21.4_-2.7_100_100___ scored (12.3)

Kindred Spirit _____________ 23 _ 06 _ 19*_ 09 _ 08 ___ (02) _____ 67

Sunflower3 _______________ 24 _ 20 _ 20 _ 12 _ 10 ___ (07) _____ 93

Dacogawa ________________ 25 _ 10*_ 06 _ 03 _ 08 ___ (09) _____ 61

Joe Public ___ (-4) _________ 24 _ 10*_ 08*_ 12 _ 06 ___ (02) _62-4=58

Tae laidir _________________ 24 _ 17 _ 18*_ 09 _ 10 ___ (07) _____ 85

Gonzo ______ (-2) _________ 24 _ 10 _ 15 _ 08 _ 08 ___ (05) _70-2=68

Pauldry ___________________24 _ 00 _ 14 _ 15 _ 06 ___ (01) _____ 60

Adam240610 ______________ 23 _ 04 _ 11 _ 13 _ 10 ___ (06) _____ 67

Bsal _____________________ 22 _ 06 _ 17*_ 14 _ 09 ___ (03) _____ 71

Appledrop ________________ 22 _ 00 _ 19*_ 12 _ 08 ___ (08) _____ 69

Mr Stonewall ______________ 20 _ 01 _ 15 _ 07 _ 08 ___ (06) _____ 57

john mac _________________ 19 _ 18*_ 16*_12 _ 09 ___ (02) _____ 76

___ Con Sensus ____________19 _ 07 _ 19*_ 12 _ 08 ___ (05) _____ 70

200motels ________________ 19 _ 19 _ 14 _ 11 _ 10 ___ (01) _____ 74

DOCARCH _________________18 _ 08 _ 02 _ 12 _ 08 ___ (03) _____ 51

MrSkinner ___ (-1) _________ 18 _ 07 _ 14 _ 14 _ 09 ___ (01) _63-1=62

sryanbruen ________________18 _ 02 _ 06*_ 10 _ 10 ___ (04) _____ 50

waterways ________________ 17 _ 14*_ 17*_ 15 _ 08 ___ (10) ____ 81

___ NormaL _______________ 17 _ 11 _ 17*_ 15 _ 10 ___ (10) _____ 80

WolfeEire _________________ 17 _ 00 _ 17*_ 08 _ 08 ___ (05) _____ 55

Rameire __________________ 16 _ 06 _ 04 _ 13 _ 09 ___ (08) _____ 56

M.T. Cranium ______________ 16 _ 00 _ 18 _ 09 _ 09 ___ (10) _____ 62

Dasa29 ___________________15 _ 00 _ 13 _ 15 _ 08 ___ (04) _____ 55

Jpmarn ___________________14 _ 01 _ 09*_ 07 _ 06 ___ (09) ____ 46

Cornerstonelad _____________12 _ 15 _ 08*_ 08 _ 06 ___ (03) ____ 52

______________________________________

(scores subject to adjustment at end of month)

pauldry

Got down well below MINUS 3 in Mt Dillon and Markree last night. Possibly minus 4.

Tae laidir

Mt. Dillon -3.4 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

Will adjust that scoring table later, might need to introduce minimum progression now so the drops in scoring may not be all of the seven points implied by this new MIN.

M.T. Cranium

Updated estimated scores (from new MIN -3.4)

FORECASTER _____________ IMT _MAX _MIN _PRC _SUN ___BONUS __ Score

___ Estimated values _______ 9.2_21.4_-2.7_100_100___ scored (12.3)

Kindred Spirit _____________ 23 _ 06 _ 14 _ 09 _ 08 ___ (02) _____ 62

Sunflower3 _______________ 24 _ 20 _ 13 _ 12 _ 10 ___ (07) _____ 86

Dacogawa ________________ 25 _ 10*_ 00 _ 03 _ 08 ___ (09) _____ 55

Joe Public ___ (-4) _________ 24 _ 10*_ 15*_ 12 _ 06 ___ (02) _69-4=65

Tae laidir _________________ 24 _ 17 _ 15 _ 09 _ 10 ___ (07) _____ 82

Gonzo ______ (-2) _________ 24 _ 10 _ 08 _ 08 _ 08 ___ (05) _63-2=61

Pauldry ___________________24 _ 00 _ 07 _ 15 _ 06 ___ (01) _____ 53

Adam240610 ______________ 23 _ 04 _ 04 _ 13 _ 10 ___ (06) _____ 60

Bsal _____________________ 22 _ 06 _ 16 _ 14 _ 09 ___ (03) _____ 70

Appledrop ________________ 22 _ 00 _ 14 _ 12 _ 08 ___ (08) _____ 64

Mr Stonewall ______________ 20 _ 01 _ 08 _ 07 _ 08 ___ (06) _____ 50

john mac _________________ 19 _ 18*_ 17 _12 _ 09 ___ (02) _____ 77

___ Con Sensus ____________19 _ 07 _ 14 _ 12 _ 08 ___ (05) _____ 65

200motels ________________ 19 _ 19 _ 07 _ 11 _ 10 ___ (01) _____ 67

DOCARCH _________________18 _ 08 _ 00 _ 12 _ 08 ___ (03) _____ 49

MrSkinner ___ (-1) _________ 18 _ 07 _ 07 _ 14 _ 09 ___ (01) _56-1=55

sryanbruen ________________18 _ 02 _ 13*_ 10 _ 10 ___ (04) _____ 57

waterways ________________ 17 _ 14*_ 16 _ 15 _ 08 ___ (10) ____ 80

___ NormaL _______________17 _ 11 _ 16 _ 15 _ 10 ___ (10) _____ 79

WolfeEire _________________ 17 _ 00 _ 16 _ 08 _ 08 ___ (05) _____ 54

Rameire __________________ 16 _ 06 _ 00 _ 13 _ 09 ___ (08) _____ 52

M.T. Cranium ______________ 16 _ 00 _ 11 _ 09 _ 09 ___ (10) _____ 55

Dasa29 ___________________15 _ 00 _ 06 _ 15 _ 08 ___ (04) _____ 48

Jpmarn ___________________14 _ 01 _ 16*_ 07 _ 06 ___ (09) _____ 53

Cornerstonelad _____________12 _ 15 _ 15*_ 08 _ 06 ___ (03) _____ 59

______________________________________

It may be necessary to adjust some scores later for minimum progression.

*MIN or MAX can still improve.

(scores subject to adjustment at end of month)

--------------------------------------------------------

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ______________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Oak Park 9th

Kindred Spirit ______________ 9.4 _ 20.0 _ -2.8 _ 083 _ 112 ___ 15.3

Sunflower3 ________________ 9.3 _ 21.4 _ -2.7 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 13.9

Dacogawa _________________ 9.2 _ 22.4 _ -1.3 _ 064 _ 110 ___ 13.2

Joe Public ___ (-4) __________ 9.1 _ 22.4 _ -3.9 _ 092 _ 120 ___ 15.5

Tae laidir __________________ 9.1 _ 21.1 _ -2.9 _ 118 _ 101 ___ 13.7

Gonzo ______ (-2) __________9.1 _ 20.4 _ -2.2 _ 078 _ 112 ___ 14.3

Pauldry ___________________ 9.1 _ 19.4 _ -2.1 _ 101 _ 120 ___ 17.1

Adam240610 ______________ 9.0 _ 19.8 _ -1.8 _ 093 _ 102 ___ 14.1

Bsal ______________________8.9 _ 20.0 _ -3.0 _ 097 _ 104 ___ 15.0

Appledrop _________________ 8.9 _ 19.2 _ -2.8 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 13.5

Mr Stonewall _______________8.7 _ 19.5 _ -2.2 _ 075 _ 110 ___ 14.2

john mac __________________8.6 _ 21.6 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 15.4

___ Con Sensus ____________ 8.6 _ 20.1 _ -2.8 _ 092 _ 108 ___ 14.3

200motels _________________8.6 _ 21.3 _ -2.1 _ 089 _ 101 ___ 16.8

DOCARCH _________________ 8.5 _ 20.2 _ -0.9 _ 092 _ 110 ___ 15.1

MrSkinner ___ (-1) __________8.5 _ 20.1 _ -2.1 _ 096 _ 105 ___ 16.2

sryanbruen ________________ 8.5 _ 19.6 _ -4.1 _ 085 _ 100 ___ 14.6

waterways _________________8.4 _ 22.0 _ -3.0 _ 099 _ 109 ___ 12.0

___ NormaL ________________8.4 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 12.8

WolfeEire __________________8.4 _ 19.1 _ -3.0 _ 080 _ 108 ___ 14.3

Rameire __________________ 8.3 _ 20.0 _ -1.1 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 13.6

M.T. Cranium ______________ 8.3 _ 19.4 _ -2.5 _ 083 _ 105 ___ 11.7

Dasa29 ___________________ 8.2 _ 19.0 _ -2.0 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 14.5

Jpmarn ___________________ 8.1 _ 19.5 _ -3.8 _ 075 _ 120 ___ 13.2

Cornerstonelad _____________ 7.9 _ 20.9 _ -3.9 _ 079 _ 120 ___ 14.8

_________________________________

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks,

IMT on 9.1 (and continues to be after 29 days but jumped from 9.06 to 9.14), fourth week average 9.3 near normal for time of year. Expect it to round off to 9.2 after today.

MAX 21.4 and MIN -3.4

PRC was 90% of normal after a somewhat dry week around 60%, and is now 92% after Saturday's scattered showers, and with what has been reported today, will finish around 95%.

SUN was only about half of normal and the monthly average has fallen to 94% which means the likely end point is perhaps 90%.

BONUS already scored, see above.

I will update the preliminary scoring some time tomorrow, with the bank holiday I expect MS data on the 3rd so final scoring will happen then.

appledrop

Thanks M.T, surprised the rainfall is that low as we have had another horrible wet month in Dublin, well above LTA.

The rest of the country must have done better than East Coast for rainfall this month.

M.T. Cranium

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120540821#Comment_120540821

The southern locations in our grid are mainly responsible for the (marginally) below average outcome, Dublin is running about 25% above and so are some of the other stations. Even so, the contest grid outcome will be fairly close to normal.

M.T. Cranium

IMT finished on 9.3 and I see very little differential now in either PRC or SUN from my estimates in scoring (100%) so I will wait for the MS on the 3rd ... one point differences will be mostly negative from the last scoring estimate where 9.2 was used (the top two scores in the forecast table are up one).

So unless the MS contains unexpected revisions, that last version of scoring will be fairly close.