Wasn't blown up.....
Sorry that's not going to change,
And as I said, could really swing the advantage to Russia when the counter offensive begins.
The SBU is behind the explosion of the Russian A-50 aircraft in the Belarusian Machulishchi, writes The Economist.
The fact that it was Malyuk’s department that was responsible for this “bavovna” was previously said with reference to sources. Now the information is confirmed by a Pentangon data leak.
As Head of the SBU Vasily Malyuk said earlier, “the bavovna burned, burns and will burn.” And a number of experts noted that blowing up such a strategic aircraft is another super-complicated special operation of the Service. Obviously, a separate unit that deals with drones has intensified its work in the SBU.
Didn't happen, according to Gatling. No damage either. It was fake news.
Looks like someone was wrong to be so dismissive.
BUK and S-300 are the backbone of Ukraine's air defense. The threat of these systems forces Russia to fly low (if they choose to venture into Ukraine), attempting to stay under the radar horizon of these systems - which brings them into range of manpads if they happen to fly over one.
If Ukraine run out of ammo for BUK and S-300 - which they will soon if the leaks are true - Russia no longer have a reason to fly low. They can fly high, safely above the ceiling of manpads.
Because of Ukraine's hitherto-effective air defenses, if Russia want to hit a target deep within Ukraine they typically use a cruise/ballistic missile, a Shahed type drone or a glide bomb launched far away from the target (and potential SAM sites). They are low on stocks of all these and have slow production capacity.
If Ukraine's air defenses become degraded then Russia can fly further into Ukraine, destroy targets with guided bombs rather than use cruise missiles. This would be very bad news for Ukraine because Russia have barely tapped into their inventory of these yet.
Little Moscow.
It was well known for posting pro Kremlin articles on the invasion of Ukraine 9 years ago, doubt much has changed
And maybe russia and wagner group are doing the same and when Ukraine begins their counter offensive, they may may get more resistance from the dug in russians than they expected to.
Especially if the Russians have zeroed in where they expect the attack to come from.
Hope I am wrong.
Maybe the leaks were made on purpose with false info included in them on Ukraine in order to lull the Russians into a false sense of security!
Spot on. For the last 3-4 months we heard that Bakhmut was falling. Just as the Wagner group was giving up the UA started to conceed it to the Wagner group which has dragged in some elite Russian troops ( airborne/ paratrooper and commando type troops). In other words the UA has fixed the Wagner and some of the rest Russian troops in Bakhmut.
Watch what happens when the ground dries up.
Are the Guardian Russian Trolls now?
“The whole secret lies in confusing the enemy, so that he cannot fathom our real intent.”
Russophile’s taking the ‘Ukraine not going to have enough resources/no need to worry’ disinformation like champs. 😀
Wishful thinking like the West is going to give up on Ukraine is where Russophiles are at.
Considering that Nato countries are training thousands of Ukrainans every couple of weeks ,I'd say that report is well wide of the mark and that's if it's actually genuine
It would make you wonder where has all the money and weapons from the west gone if this is true. Either way, if Ukraine have not broken Russia by the end of the year this means that the west has practically abandoned Ukraine.
US has grave concerns about Ukraine's ability to mount a credibly large contingent to retake territory according to leaked docs.
The context being Ukraine realistically only has one shot at a big counter-offensive. It just has to work. Can only imagine the amount of planning going in to it.
Just reading on this thread about the war supposedly being over by the end of the year?
Doubt it very much.
It’s in chinas interest to have a weakened Russia tied up in this war so that it can keep getting as much cheap gas and oil off Russia that it possibly can.
China will keep buying up this cheap fuel and funding russias war effort, plus there’s evidence that they are supplying semiconductors to Russia along with non lethal aid.
A weakened Russia is goldust for China with its eyes on lake baikil.
Manpads will deal with most of them,as it stands the Russians are launching missles from aircraft on their side of the black sea,
safe from Anti aircraft missles ,
With the exception of those aircraft and helicopters being shot down regularly around bakhmut and elsewhere
Yeah im more talking about air defences for attack planes and helicopters.
But yet Russian missles regularly do get through,we already know that they have limited systems to defend the country so chance's are they might not be trying to shoot down every missle fired at them ,
Much like the Israeli iron done arguebly the Best Air defense system in operational but due the cost of operation it will only activate when there is a threat of mass loss of life
They are becoming more successful. Citizens even have apps that warn of missile strikes and the number of missiles launched in an attack. The reporter said that if there are say 10 launched they expect none to get through but if the number is say 80 then a few will.
Bakhmut while still holding out to a degree, Ukraine currently holding less than 15% of the city since the lastest push from the Russians ,it looks like Wagner forces push forward in street fighting, before handing over the area to the Russian military, while the Ukrainians have re-enforced the city at least twice they are still losing ground, despite inflicting heavy losses on the Russians , Russian artillery and aircraft seem to be tipping the balance in their favor
Interesting that Ukraine is making it's own ammunition in Poland. I'd imagine that factory will be busy for the forseeable future.
Unfortunately for the Russians they may be running low on some missles but ukraine currently operate multiple air defense systems,and most importantly manpads which are taking down multiple Russian aircraft per week,
I think history isn't going to be too kind on the stupidity of not at least training Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16s, F-18s or similar, starting around July last year.
Particularly since they sought and got $100 million in funding to do exactly that, last July. Why seek the funding if you had no intention of using it?
If true about Ukraine running out of air defence missiles, could have serious implications for the offensive.
Russia not being able to gain air superiority in the war has been a huge factor in Ukraine being able to hold Russia back.
Not necessarily true we don't know whats going to change and whats not come the summer,the maps could dramatically over the next few months essentially when the Ukrainians start the planned counter offensive, there's not going to be a lot of stalemates anywhere in Ukraine
I remember hearing Russia was the second best army in the world. Do you remember that or is your remembering very selective?
Russia will be defeated. It's already lost, just depends how many people Putin is willing to sacrifice (Russian and Ukrainian) to his ego. That's not to say this war cannot go on for years yet, but Ukraine cannot/will not allow Russia to win. If it does, Putin or Putin mk 2 will go for more Ukraine. It's absurd to think that Putin doesn't take this humiliation lightly. He's raging, and his rage will continue until he rights 'the wrong' of making Ukraine make him look like a tinpot dictator. Ukraine knows if they have a ceasefire now, Putin will march his muscovites back into Ukraine ASAP.
Now, Ukraine did so well that the West has backed them, will they be so 'lucky' next time? Who knows, the Muscovites may learn their lesson and professionalise, given time.
The leaked documents also reveal that the US expects the current stalemate in the Donbas to continue throughout 2023. This downbeat assessment is based on the best intelligence available (as of late Feb). So those expecting the Russians to run out of resources and forecasting a speedy conclusion to this are probably going to be disappointed.
The official also pointed out that it was alarming to see one of the documents from February titled “Russia-Ukraine: Battle for the Donbas Region Likely Heading for a Stalemate Throughout 2023.” The document notes the challenges with assessing the “endurance of Ukraine’s operations.”
“Gains for Ukraine will be hard to accomplish, but it does not help to have the private US assessment pointing to a likely yearlong stalemate revealed publicly,” the official said.
Which reports exactly? The Russians have run out of tanks - there is simply no other explanation for the reemergence of Cold War era T62 tanks with some minor upgrades and additions.
They also ran out of men. Again, this is undenyable. Why would they mobilise 300k or more people if they didnt have a manpower shortage.
Their stocks of artillery are finite. They have shown an ability to source far more artillery than expected - whether thrlugh larger old stocks, increased production over the last few years, getting supplies from North Korea, Iran or other vountries etc. There are reports that Russia is firing less ammo now than at times last year, though to be fair that could be for operational reasons rather than lack of resources. However, Prigozin and others have complained about the shortages of ammo at the front, so there is some evidence of supply related problems. Since Russia isnt as open about procurement as the US is, we can only speculate. But no country has unlimited artillery ammunition, barrells, gunners etc.
Again who exactly said that about Kharkiv? You might recall that shortly after that they also pushed the Russians back in a "tactical retreat" in Kherson. I dont recall anyone suggesting that the war was nearly over, but again the victory at Kharkiv signalled a turning of the tide and a significant bloody nose for Russia, from which they have not recovered.
Russia is still fighting and still dangerous, but for how long?
The documents leaked around 1 month ago and went seemingly unnoticed for several weeks - sitting on a minecraft server or something. Once they started circulating more widely, yes - some Russian trolls crudely edited some slides about casualty numbers. However since the originals were already circulating and with older timestamps it was easy to dismiss these crude fakes.
The documents overall are considered genuine, embarrassing to the US and a number of pro-West media outlets have written articles about them. Reports that Ukraine is almost out of Soviet air-defense missiles are coming from these pro-Western sources. It should not come as any surprise - these (BUK and S300) are Soviet systems - Ukraine had a certain quantity of missiles and once they're gone, they're gone. Some ex-Soviet countries might have the odd missile to give them but nothing significant.
I remember reports that Russia would run out of tanks, artillery, and men at various points last year.
We've had news reports for close to a year detailing how underresourced Russian soldiers were and how they were close to breaking.
We were told that the breakthrough at Kharkiv was the beginning of the end and that similar breakthroughs were only a matter of weeks away.
Russia is still fighting and still has plenty of men and materiel to throw into this conflict.
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://we.vanillicon.com/v2/e050b53be62f0ae2404c620976170938.svg)
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://w2.vanillicon.com/v2/23a17162c37eb6bc3dac0636b261afca.svg)
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://we.vanillicon.com/v2/eedacf599b4135dfd56d6fdbddcbd867.svg)
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://w7.vanillicon.com/v2/7270d983550b17037464bcf52151daef.svg)
