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Tues 11th/ Weds 12th April 2023 strong winds, warnings likely.

Meteorite58

ECM about the most consistent I would think with track and wind speeds, GFS has eased off again on the 06Z, had been showing very strong winds on previous run- lot of chopping and changing, UKMO very strong and stormy overland but cant take it too literally this far out as prone to very much overdoing it in the early runs. ICON was consistent in its approach similar to the ECM if a lot stronger but has eased off on strength this morning and giving it a more ragged look with winds at different intervals. GEM a bit out on its own with a different look all together on latest run. Australian model showing a very strong wind event also.

Can see that the storm deepens very rapidly and is still deepening at landfall. Taking a reading of probably about 1000 mb at 99hrs and 961hPa at 120hrs giving a drop of about 40mb in less than 24hrs. Formed along and exiting the left side of a very fast jet positioned to bring it close or over us. Fairly strong thermal gradient also brining in cold airs with it giving the chance of some wintry showers plus convective heavy showers with hail and will see if thunderstorms possible.

Would think at this stage a fair chance of strong winds. Will see how the models progress with this.

Just seen this on Met Eireanns site:

TUESDAY: Wet and windy on Tuesday with wind warnings likely to be issued. There is potential for impactful conditions so stay up to date with the forecast for your local area.

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Meteorite58

ECM rolling out, not developing the system to the north of us as rapidly or as deep as the other models and that bit different also so not showing winds of note on Tues and strong winds overland Weds on the run in the Yellow warning range gusting 80 to 90km/h. Not resolved yet by far.

Met Eireanns forecast hasn't deviated much all day which would be at odds with tonight's ECM run for Tuesday. Very much holding onto the uncertainty phrase.

Met Eireann : Tuesday: Exact details are still uncertain for Tuesday but currently the forecast suggests southerly winds veering westerly will be strong and gusty with gales in some coastal areas. Rain will continue to extend northeastwards becoming widespread, and at times heavy, during the morning before clearing to showers later in the day. Highest temperatures will range from 7 to 11 degrees. Cold and windy on Tuesday night with widespread showers and gusty conditions at times. There will be a chance of hail and isolated thunderstorms and a few brief wintry flurries over high ground cannot be ruled out. Lows will range from 0 to 4 degrees generally.

Wednesday: Remaining windy on Wednesday with frequent squally showers feeding in from the west throughout the day. Some of the showers will be heavy with a chance for further isolated thunderstorms and hail and the showers may merge to longer spells of rain at times. Highs on 8 to 10 degrees in fresh to strong and gusty westerly winds. Cold and breezy on Wednesday night with clear spells and scattered showers, some of hail. Lowest temperatures of 0 to 4 degrees in fresh and gusty southwest winds.

M.T. Cranium

Brief windy spell mid-day Tuesday for the south and east (gusts to around 80 km/hr), then a more sustained interval of very strong winds developing by evening, peaking later overnight, largest impacts coastal Connacht and most of Munster, would say gusts to 110 km/hr fairly widespread in exposed locations from midnight to late morning Wednesday, also very chilly for time of year, could see wintry showers on slopes and hail showers near sea level. Some squally showers at times later today also. The evolution suggests stronger winds will take a long time to spread any further north than about Tipps to Wexford during the Wednesday mid-day period and peak gusts (after the earlier Tuesday peak) in Dublin area likely to be Wednesday afternoon but more moderate, 50-80 km/hr west-northwest.

Meteorite58

Weather Warnings

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick, Galway, Mayo

Met Éireann Weather Warning
Very strong west to northwest winds developing. Widespread gusts of between 90 and 110 km/h expected, stronger in coastal areas and over higher ground. Wave overtopping in coastal areas.
Valid: 01:00 Wednesday 12/04/2023 to 17:00 Wednesday 12/04/2023
Issued: 10:58 Monday 10/04/2023
Northern Ireland Warnings

Yellow - Wind Warning for Antrim, Down

UK Met Office Weather Warning (www.metoffice.gov.uk)
A period of strong winds bringing the potential for some disruption later on Tuesday and perhaps into the early hours of Wednesday.
Valid: 15:00 Tuesday 11/04/2023 to 03:00 Wednesday 12/04/2023
Issued: 10:37 Sunday 09/04/2023
Updated: 10:58 Monday 10/04/2023

Meteorite58

Yeah turned out Tues not as windy in general than earlier modelled, but ARPEGE still showing it to be quite windy but this is a bit out on its own for now and then it doesn't show it as windy on Weds but the other models are in fair agreement and maybe bringing more counties into the yellow wind warning level. The SW possibly in the high Yellow range touching Orange in coastal areas perhaps.

Meteorite58

I edited the title as it doesn't look like this system will have the same impacts as earlier thought.

AROME showing blustery squally conditions later Tues sweeping up the country topping up the rainfall totals with heavy localized rainfalls. ICON captures this also to some extent.

Meteorite58

ECM 06Z bring more counties into the Yellow Warning range on Weds, high end in parts. Could see some counties Orange yet.

.Donegal.

In the latest update possibility of severe gales for the SE of Ulster

Tuesday:

The morning dry with some sunshine at first, then cloud and heavy rain spreading from west in the afternoon. Gales, perhaps severe in southeast, later.

adocholiday

Yellow warning issued for the east coast for tomorrow evening

Meteorite58

European models a bit stronger, ARPEGE probably a fair average, very windy in the SW early Weds, windy and blustery across the country during Weds with heavy squally showers.

adocholiday

Strange that no yellow warning was issued for tomorrow for more counties. The forecast average winds and gusts for Wicklow at least are the same if not stronger for tomorrow afternoon than the winds today.

Edit: never mind they've issued it now!

chris2007

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Leinster, Cavan, Donegal, Monaghan, Leitrim, Roscommon, Sligo, Tipperary, Waterford

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Very strong northwest winds developing. Widespread gusts of between 90 and 110 km/h expected, stronger in exposed areas.

Valid: 08:00 Wednesday 12/04/2023 to 20:00 Wednesday 12/04/2023

adocholiday

Status Orange - Wind warning for Kerry

Met Éireann Weather Warning
Stormy for a time with damaging gusts in excess of 110km/h
Valid: 02:00 Wednesday 12/04/2023 to 08:00 Wednesday 12/04/2023
Issued: 15:54 Tuesday 11/04/2023

Status Orange - Wind warning for West Clare

Met Éireann Weather Warning
Stormy for a time with damaging gusts in excess of 110km/h
Valid: 02:00 Wednesday 12/04/2023 to 05:00 Wednesday 12/04/2023
Issued: 15:54 Tuesday 11/04/2023

Looking like a rough 24 hours or so ahead, have we ever had an orange wind warning in April before? A pity because the new leaves on the large horse chestnut I have in the garden have just unfurled and I reckon this spell is going to do a serious number on them now.

seanin4711

Building an ark here in Galway since 10am

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120465497#Comment_120465497

Yes, Storm Hannah in April 2019 which was also a red for Kerry.

Interesting how they're singling out "West" Clare.

SleetAndSnow

Have headed down to west cork from the city to "Storm chase" haha, right on the coast. Will be interesting to see the conditions, haven't had a storm in quite a while! Was lashing on the way down, sunny spells now but winds building. Have charged up numerous phones and powerbanks anyway just incase

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120465599#Comment_120465599

Ah yes had forgotten, just went back to the old thread there 40 pages of posts. It was a fairly significant event and in late April too, with some red warnings in the mix. Don't think this is shaping up to be as bad thankfully.

lucalux

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120465599#Comment_120465599

One step closer to more localised (and possibly relevant) warnings? here's hoping

squarecircles

So Met Eireann dont name storms anymore even if they reach orange criteria it seems.

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120465701#Comment_120465701

Conspiracy theory with no foundation whatsoever: They want to have no named storm this year so they can say climate change is having an inordinate impact on the weather and increase Met Eireann's funding to have a working Shannon Radar...

.Donegal.

Donegal had an orange wind warning a couple of months ago and they didn’t name it which made sense to me as it was nothing worth naming. I thought orange warnings started at 120kmh but these two issues today mention above 110kmh so not quite the same(unless they changed it). I think they were county specific about a previous warning recently as well, west galway or something like that.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120465599#Comment_120465599

Yeah and wasn't it West Clare that did really well for snow recently? 2 dumps of it which would be rare enough in Clare.

.Donegal.

Red marine warning

Status Red - Storm warning from Valentia to Loop Head

West to northwest winds at times reach violent storm force 11.

Valid: 05:00 Wednesday 12/04/2023 to 08:00 Wednesday 12/04/2023

DOCARCH

Strange we don't have a storm name for this (yet). They have been named for less! Maybe something to do with Biden visit?

SleetAndSnow

Drastic increase in wind on the coast, heavy hail showers now too.

JanuarySnowstor

The warnings look fairly spot on to me, but further inland like West Cork looks close to orange also. A potent system but coinciding with the middle of night means disruption should be limited. Damage looks likely for Clare/Kerry 2am to 6am

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120465947#Comment_120465947

I can see loop head from my driveway in north Kerry.... Damn. 🫣

Carol25

I’m wondering is this politics with the Biden visit as this should surely be a named storm otherwise

Kermit.de.frog

Some sleet, snow may occur in parts of the Midlands and East for a time through the early hours later tonight as the occlusion sweeps through. A surprise dusting for some maybe?

Beechwoodspark

why have Met Eireann not given a name to this storm?

They have given names to far less powerful weather events over the years!!

Is it something to do with optics as Joe Biden is heading over here???

pauldry

It's storm Antoni and Joe will have to hunker down. There I've named it since Met afraid to.

Met Eireann have named it the "dodgy day" storm

Landing helicopters during US President Joe Biden's visit to Co Louth tomorrow will be tricky, as tomorrow will be a "dodgy day", according to Met Éireann.