If being an unaligned country with a large army is no deterrent to Putin's ambitions is it time for ROI to join Nato?
So we have three Russian ‘cargo’ vessels operating suspiciously off our west coast near the new subsea communication cables.
yet, no capability to launch a single naval vessel of our own to monitor them or deter them. Not one can be launched.
As an island nation, that is really superb. Best we could do was send an Aer Corps turboprop up and take photos of them.. 🤷♂️
might as well dispose of the defence forces and give photography Ireland more funding…
a possible threat or at minimum a situation to be deterred … “ sure, get a few pics, be grand “
NATO ? Can we afford it ? Seeing as we can’t afford to get our shît together to mobilise a single navy ship.
There are already SOSUS arrays off Scotland and Iceland... but huge gaps for submarines approaching the Irish and North seas from northern and southern Ireland.
Hadn't seen this linked in thread:
Ireland to consider expanding cooperation with Nato in areas of cyber attacks and maritime intelligence (irishexaminer.com)
They also slaughtered the Russians wholesale,
Besides maps can be redrawn at any time
The big thing that has people of a certain political bent in hysterics about NATO is the USA's involvement. They're stuck in 1970s Marxist reading group territory on the issue. You can smell the corduroy, moustaches and rolling tobacco off their opinions. It's lost on them that for better or worse (and it's not all positive, but mostly positive) that Washington DC has underwritten Europe's defence and security since the mid-40s.
Isn't NATO membership a bigger, more aggressive step than Ireland participating in EU mutual defence/future evolution of that (for several reasons) and much more likely to severely anger the "hysterical" people?
Anyway, I think very practical things are happening now at EU level e.g. a group of countries recently came together to organise a large ammunition order (for Ukraine).
We're just left out of it, it is moving far, far too fast for the often glacial pace of change here. The politicians are aware that something is happening and situation has changed, but I think (maybe I am wrong?) for most Irish people Ukraine may as well be on the moon or mars as regards considering impact the war there has on our defence/security here. It does not compute.
I don't believe the other members are going to be humming and hawing and wondering "oh wait up - hold those horses! what does Ireland think?" about collective security and defence (ala the bygone era of Lisbon referendum - a very different world).
If they think it necessary they will find a way and go ahead and do it (like recent moves into collective procurement of weapons), and we can get on the train or stay off (which will distance us from the other EU members that participate in it).
It resulted in the loss of approx 9% of Finland’s territory. The subsequent war resulted in further loss of territory and Finland being forced into a policy of “Finlandisation” to ensure its survival.
Remind us about the winter war
The main benefit to Ireland in joining NATO in the short term would be so we could eventually discuss mutual defence at EU level - should it ever happen - without large numbers of people here having hysterics about it.
The point I was attempting to make is that Russian still has the largest army in Europe. No other country can match it in manpower terms. When you are willing to suffer high casualties on a long term basis (and Putin is certainly willing), those extra numbers do matter because the opposing side is just ground down by weight of numbers.
Ukraine is mounting a heroic defence but the conflict is still one of Russia pounding Ukraine’s cities and towns and occupying Ukrainian territory, not vice versa. The conflict is essentially an “away match” for ordinary Russians.
PS I wouldn’t get your hopes up about Finland - Russia already occupies large parts of what were once Finland (ie since after Ireland left the U.K.) - including what was once Finland’s second or third largest city. Finland is joining NATO precisely because it knows it has little chance of holding off a Russian attack.
Scotland + all its the islands (as part of UK) should give them access to a great big EEZ that reaches far out into the N. Atlantic for easy access and locating their military sensors or other stuff.
I believe Iceland is a member too, so they seem fairly well set in this part of the world and don't really need Ireland much. I suppose (as you point out) it could help lock things down more, and make it tidier for the other members in this region if we were a member as well.
With very poor state of our own air corps and naval service the govt. here probably won't have a great idea what NATO (or indeed non NATO, Russian etc.!) military stuff is going on "out there" unless fellow Atlantic coast EU members and the UK (all of which are already in NATO) tell them. So in practice, Ireland not being a member is unlikely to affect their activities in the Atlantic much.
I'm pretty sure they would love to place numerous SOSUS arrays off our coast, essentially making the Irish Sea a submarine playground and close off the English channel from the Russian's approaching from SE Ireland.
You have an a bit of a fascination with the old militarism and empire building yourself Run Forest Run, just Russia's cuddly version (think you told us all [on other threads, repeatedly] Russia is ushering in the better, more harmonious and peaceful multipolar future world vs the mostly US/Western created global bodies and structures created post WW2).
"Paddy" eh? Maybe you should take time on Sunday to sit down and lobby your TD/political party of choice to have Ireland leave the EU and apply for membership of CTSO or the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation!
Turn Shannon into a permanent US air force base, for them to use as a launchpad
Which would have definitely happened if Ireland had been part of NATO from the start and would have been a vital asset as far as airbase and radar stations go. The US would have jumped at the chance and back then Ireland would have been very useful to NATO.
Now Ireland has nothing to offer, the land isn't of such worth for an airbase, no need for the radar monitoring as technology has moved on, and Ireland has nothing in the way of military of its own to offer.
The most useful thing that Ireland now has is to not be a part of NATO, but be a NATO friendly neutral country that can be used for peace talks when the need arises.
There is no useful resources in Ireland, no useful military aged population, and it's geographically no longer useful as the planes can get further without needing to stop for refuelling.
I've no problem with NATO, just don't see any reason for Ireland to join as its of no benefit to either NATO or Ireland.
No issues with Russian agression in Ukraine and elsewhere ,
No?
Why would we be hosting nuclear weapons exactly
It's always those most vocal in support of NATO, that seem to have a peculiar obsession with aggressive militarism and also are very likely to turn a blind eye to western atrocities and imperialism around the world...
Interesting that... very interesting.
I'm sure there are a few people around here, who would likely wet themselves with excitement at the prospect of US/NATO military bases on our Island. And possibly even the hosting of nuclear weapons too.
Turn Shannon into a permanent US air force base, for them to use as a launchpad for all the future wars they're planning? Hell yeah, sign paddy up for some of that action! Lets play our part in spreading more US style peace and democracy around the world! 🙄
Largest and lowest quality. Can't take Bakhmut after over a year, yet alone Ukraine. And its right there on the border. Lost countless numbers of personnel and equipment including a fleet flagship. Mostly for empty useless fields.
No other country? Part of me would like to see Russia try to gain an inch of Finland. I think your theories of unique Ukrainian resistance might not prove true there*. They've been stockpiling. (still a non-nato country, at least as of today, by the way)
In any case, its over for Russia as regards being a conventional threat to (rest of) Europe. Poland is going full hog now on security. Germany too. If Russia wants to try anything the clock is ticking down fast. The (probable) defeat in Ukraine will see Russias military knocked on its ass for a generation, never again to catch up with many EU countries. EU military integration will only increase too (pesco, SW-FL airforce integration, ND-DL land forces integration).
Tl;dr - Russia losing gear, EU countries buying gear, integrating.
*likewise Switzerland, or Austria.
Russia has still by far the largest military of any county in Europe. Ukraine has the second largest and even with that and a ferocious defence they have still lost almost 20% of their country.
There is probably no other country in Europe that could have put up such a resistance since for most European countries losing that much territory would mean the country was completely overrun and its government and armed forces were either captured, killed or forced into exile.
There is no commitment to a NATO style common military defence response anywhere in the EU Treaties, largely because we and other non-aligned countries insisted that there shouldn’t be and insisted that task was explicitly left to NATO.
There is a “mutual aid clause” that is a straight lift from the UN charter but that’s so broad you can meet it by sending medial supplies to a country being invaded.
And, no, an attack on an EU member would not mean the EU has to prove itself or cease to exist since there is no NATO style commitment in the treaties. We can’t simultaneously tie up the EU from doing NATO style defence and then claim it has failed to do something it isn’t allowed to do.
South Africa became a dominion within the Empire in 1910 (as did Ireland a decade later). Dominions though were NOT independent in 1910 (or 1922). They were administrative units within the Empire and Westminster had the power to unilaterally abolish any of them up until (roughly) the mid 30s. Even then, it was their various majesties that entered into international treaties on behalf of their dominions (a situation that applied to Ireland until 1949).
Bonkers.
Everything. Everywhere.
All at once.
You can bet they have a plan to do just that (unlikely I know). They had during WW2 but they believed it wasn't worth their while and would have upset Irish America.
annnnd
/thread
Very good.
But can you answer the question with anything specific. Im going to say no, you can't.
The only half decent argument I've seen was the internet cables effort. And Russia can cut internet cables anywhere in the greater Atlantic with few exceptions, so that sort of takes Ireland out of the question.
"Russia, by comparison, doesn't rely on the cables as much, and it has a substantial fleet of spy submarines to operate on them".
I knew it!
They never got over signing that treaty in 1921.
Anything....
Attack, foreign agression, sabotage of vital infrastructure,
The Brits. That is the only reason they are flying over Ireland warning off Russian jets from Irish airspace you know. They are secretly planning on invading Ireland themselves and don't want the Russians to get in before them. :)
against what?
We can do what ourselves exactly.
Defend ourselves, 🤣 🤣🤣🤣 no,
no we can't
Two sentences, one about internet cables, the other about Zelensky.
The rest of your post was a rant against Britain.
Four countries signed the Munich Agreement.
They are all members of Nato.
