Following on from here
New Munster chat thread folks. warning deserved there. https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=109477571#post109477571
I trust that you'll never gift an opposition team a scrum in your 22 by way of a terrible decision. But in the off chance that you do, and proceed to inform your forwards that it's their fault for then conceding a try, I strongly advise that you arrange for a third party to film that encounter.
Not that this will increase your odds of survival, more so if you trust the cameraman to transfer copyright to your estate, your next of kin might get a few quid via the black market for snuff films...
I think you'll find that's pronounced "daycent kid".
is that POM level of "decent" ???? 😉
Pretty much. I don't think anyone would claim Carbery to be anything more than decent, I just find it hard to square "Carbery is shyte, time to give the jersey to Crowley" with "Crowley has two starts at 10 all season". It would be a big move to give him the start this week or next.
Not quite the same situation - Ross Byrne (whether you rate him or not) has a huge amount of experience and is tested upto European level. Crowley, whether a higher ceiling or not still has a lot to prove at 10 at any level.
I would be surprised if Munster pivot away from Carbery at this stage of the season, but they will know best where he is. His confidence must be in the dog house but again he might be the sort of character that just gets on with it.
Business end of the season really isn't the time to be bedding in a new out half. If Carbery were injured I wouldn't be massively surprised if Healy started instead.
What's my point, you may well ask. I don't think the Munster management are quite as ready to ditch Carbery as the fans are.
You could substitute "Ireland management" in there prior to the 6N and that sentiment would have been the same. But they decided on a change. Equally:
Here's the rub though - he's not competing with Sexton at Munster.
He evidently wasn't with Ireland either; he was competing for the back-up spot and subsequently lost that battle.
I've been saying on here for 18 months or more that I think Crowley will be our starting 10 in the medium-term (ever before the EI tour or his start vs Australia). I wouldn't have any qualms if that started now (but equally I can understand why they may stick with Carbery for the remainder of the season).
Completely a fair view.
I've heard a lot of teams having long layovers in Doha (6+ hours) while I believe the regional hub can be managed better.
I think more about the London to South Africa direct as its easier to get a sleep on that type of flight imo.
There's also often a regional flight in South Africa at the end so whatever the situation is it won't be direct.
If you wanted to fairly distribute the data from that game:
The 14 points conceded while Sexton was on the pitch brings his average to 13.
The 28 points conceded while Carbery was on the pitch brings his average to 20.
The 28 points conceded while Carbery was on the pitch brings his average to 20
Is that fair distribution? By your metric, we were 100% worse defensively with Carbery that day - but in reality, we conceded 14 in 30 mins with Sexton (0.46 pts/min) vs 28 in 50 mins with Carbery (0.56 pts/min), so the difference is actually only 20%.
But it's irrelevant, we don't need any stats to tell us that Carbery is not remotely as good in defence as Sexton and any stats that tell us different would be nonsense. Here's the rub though - he's not competing with Sexton at Munster. Munster don't have a genius-level OH waiting in the wings to take his spot so it's a lot less clear-cut.
You say it's only a matter of time before Crowley takes the jersey. Maybe it is... but looking at it with your model, Crowley was on the pitch for all 80 minutes of the Glasgow game. Go back to the Scarlets game, Munster conceded 14 points in 53 minutes with Carbery on the pitch, and 28 points in 27 minutes after he was replaced by Crowley...
The defensive issues we've seen in the last two matches go way beyond the out-half. Like, Carbery has been absolutely slaughtered all week for "THAT PASS" - fair enough - but that pass only resulted in a scrum ten metres out. From there, Glasgow go wide right and Munster have loads of defensive cover, but proceed to miss three tackles in rapid succession (Daly, Kendellen and Coombes) before Glasgow crash over. It's not Carbery or Crowley's fault the forwards got mauled over the line from 15 metres out for the first try, or that Haley just waved the guy through for the second try.
What's my point, you may well ask. I don't think the Munster management are quite as ready to ditch Carbery as the fans are, or they don't share the unshakeable conviction that Crowley is the better OH.
Good analysis, Neil; the irish rugby website gives a match timeline, so if I get a chance, I might have a look at exactly that, scored vs conceded with their time on the pitch, but I'd imagine it'll only confirm what you've done above.
Quoted the wrong post above.
Fairer (and easier) to just consider Carbery the starter for the first test, since he came on after half an hour.
If anyone wants to do this for the rest of the games they may be my guest.
None of the URC teams are in London, so the "12-hour direct flight" is irrelevant.
For Irish teams, it's either 14-16 hours via a major European hub.
Or it's ~18 hours via Doha.
(assuming a minimum 2-hour layover whatever way you go)
And don't Qatar Airways contribute to the flights via a sponsorship or something?
I'm personally of the opinion that I like the South African teams.
That said it needs to make sense and travel is one of the things that needs to make sense.
If the South African teams are in the league and in Europe it should be putting us in a position where teams can just fly London to South Africa direct. I know its much more expensive but its so much quicker. If it doesn't financial make sense to fly direct it doesn't make sense for them to be taking part in NH competition.
its not just now though, the travel involved in the pool stages is a joke too.
what can they do about it? they could have not added teams that are located quite far away to one or both competitions
i think thats fair, they have added to the competition a bit but the logistics are over the top
It is but what can you do about it? It is a very big issue but we cant add weeks to season. some teams may just get unlucky with timing of their visits to South Africa in league being at time of european knock outs and getting drawn against south african side.
While I don't have a huge issue with the SA teams being involved, in fact, I think they've added to the URC and may do too to the Champions Cup but the travel is a huge issue for European & SA teams travelling to away matches.
They should. Munster just got caught out with unfortunate timing of their league games. Theyre in the league and rightfully are fully entitled to qualify and play in the european cups as well.
Via Dubai
this is why i dont think the SA teams should be in the 'european' competitions - to have to do two SA trips in the space of 4 weeks or so is a bit ridiculous, especially at the business end of the season
Does anyone know how Munster travelled to South Africa.
12 hour direct flight or 36 hour around the world and tonne of transfers.
But Sexton started all three games in NZ.
That brings his average up to 15.5 pts per game compared to 17.7 for Carbery.
A few things are becoming clear, and I'd say it's only a matter of time before Crowley has the 10 shirt at Munster.
Irish games since the beginning of 2022, wins highlighted in green.
Only two losses had Carbery at 10 (admittedly it was against France and NZ)
However looking at the averages more closely:
He is good for at least one extra score conceded per game. It's a small sample, but even if you take out the NZ game (where we shipped 42), his average is still nearly 18 points conceded per game. Farrell is a defense-first coach, and it's a simple formula: whoever runs the attack from 10, if we concede less than two scores, we probably win.
I wonder if Munster soon realise this. It fits completely with the impression I think a lot of us have had recently, that a lot of our tries are coming through midfield. It also may not even be defending per se, but just key moments on exits that grant easy entry, etc. (THAT pass against Glasgow).
There just seems to be a risk factor, mostly in defense, when he plays. It would be interesting to see what this analysis would look like for Munster games...
If the Munster staff and medical team think he's ready to start then he'll start. Given his injuries since he joined Munster i can fully understand them being a bit more careful with his reintroduction.
Given the fact that its Fineen Wycherly then if he doesnt start then I'm 100% sure he's not ready for a start.
He's been training a couple of months, he's had his gentle reintroduction, and the alternative is Fineen Wycherley... gotta play him from the off
If he does, it would be a similar introduction to when Carbery returned from his injury issues; 2 games off the bench, then a start. Albeit very different positions.
Snyman has to start. What would you be holding him back for?
Fineen Wycherley is a weak link in that tight five. He's too small for the second row, but too slow and lacks dynamism for the back row.
Thomas Ahern would be a significant upgrade if he was healthy.
Likely team is
Which I think is far too conservative a selection. POM, Murray and Frisch will make the team more stable than last week but Sharks will have a much stronger 15 and we are relying on their continued lack of cohesion.
I think Murray vs Casey is probably the closest selection call? Would personally prefer Casey, but not big issue either way (particularly after Murray's form in the 6N). I expect Carbery to start, and not sure with regards Snyman, but wouldn't be surprised to see him on the bench again either.
With the games in SA last season, we tired badly as the games went on (presumably altitude a factor), which obviously isn't a factor here, but conditions will still be tough. Need to see a reaction from last weekend tho...
Think Beirne is a huge loss tbh.
I would be surprised if Carbery doesn't start. For all Carbery's limitations, they don't seem particularly bothered about giving Crowley the job and an away knockout in South Africa would be a big ask of him. (I also think Carbery is much more highly regarded by the coaches than by the fans)
I would be pretty confident of a Munster win this weekend. No reason to fear the Sharks, they look great on paper but that's about it.
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