When a beaver has more success against Ukrainian defenders than the orcs 😂
Super embarrassing for you too considering what a fan of Putler you've been in the not too distant past.
BTW how's the imminent collapse of the EU going for you, also long predicted?
Safer in the Ukranian trench. Would probably be dinner in the Russian trench.
that is the laziest form of engagement possible
Where’s that exception in the conventions of war?
What we're getting more recently is "Well Russia has ALWAYS done poorly in the first year" as a direct reference to WW2.
Forgetting their previous failures in WW1, Russo-Japanese, Afghanistan etc.
Russia does well when it's fighting some regional insurgency.
I agree with some posters here who say there's more chance of Russia imploding than Russia winning.
@Addmagnet "But you always start from the premise that it is never 'ok' to kill POWs."
Agreed. But if they kill them, under duress, I'm ok with it. That's my argument.
The American election in 2024 is probably what gives Putin hope. He'll keep grinding for another 18 months until then in the hope trump gets elected. He trump fails Ukraine is safe. If he gets in things Will get tricky with reduced American support.
If this was to happen and Russia starts winning a grinding war I can see Poland getting directly involved and then things get really messy. There's no way they will allow Russia on their Ukrainian border.
I'm still hoping they'll enter as "peacekeepers" on the Ukrainian/Belarusian border to free up Ukrainian troops and resources for where they're actually needed.
In practice all over the battlefield. And this is not simply a war, it is terrorism on an industrial scale. How can you apply the rules of war to all out terrorism?
Decide for yourself how to apply the rules of war in this situation (these are Russians in the foxhole. video falsely reports Ukrainians)-
(WARNING, GRAPHIC) Brutal Footage Shows Russian Soldier Ambush To Ukranians In Foxhole - Videos - VidMax.com
Putin will be hoping bigly that Trump gets back in.
I agree.
If Ukraine still don’t have the capability to win the war in 18 months then they may never be capable. The Russians must be broken this year. If not Ukraine has a high chance of being abandoned regardless of who wins that election. Imagine during an election debate a candidate declares they want to give financial and military assistance to Ukraine with no plan to end the war. I can’t see it, I think both US parties will want to back away from it next year.
If they manage to free up these frozen assets from the Oligarchs and re-route it to Ukraine.... essentially the Russian Oligarchs will be paying for the Ukraine supply for the fight against Russia for up to 2 years with current projections...
And sure chuck norris and myself will head over to help finish it 😁
@RoyalCelt
Is there anything stopping Poland from doing that now? I can see how it would be an act of war to attack another military, but would it be an act of war to simply enter a warzone and say 'We're going to line out, here. We won't shoot first, but will fire back if fired upon.'?
Looks like the Russians may have made some inroads in bakhmut,it's been reported that they are in the center of bakhmut proper
"....a Russian installed leader in the region said.
His assertion ran counter to Ukrainian and Western descriptions of the situation in the city, which they have said is stabilising as a Russian offensive falters. Reuters has not been able to verify the battlefield situation."
I'm still leaning toward Wagner having an awful tough time.
If Poland entered and just manned the Belarusian border where currently there's no Russian attacks, Putin wouldn't do anything. They won't attack Polish troops there because that would justify Poland striking back in the rest of Ukraine.
Whatever about struggling to beat Ukraine they've no chance of beating Poland+ Ukraine. Especially with all the American weapons they're buying lately.
Well, then.... Why don't Poland put in some troops?
But they are having some success according the Ukrainan military general staff
Not with Steven Segal there , you won't 😂
Hugely disappointing if true about Bakhmut.
'Partial' success in a town they have been trying to take for the last 6 months isn't really that much to write home about. This is grinding attrition warfare. Street to street fighting. Building by building. The type of fight which typically favours the defenders in terms of casualty ratio. When do Wagner expect to capture this city? It was supposed to be weeks ago.
I'm sure someone will be along to tell us how bakhmut holds, which it technically true but bakhmut now has Russians inside the city, which in turn is dangerous
The fact that they are supposedly In the center of bakhmut suggests that either the Ukrainian are slowly moving back or are genuinely in a spot of bother,
It's going to be interesting to watch over the next 10-12 day's
Presumably because at the moment that would mirror Russia staging troops and equipment in Belarus and be open to criticism. But it may come to pass yet anyway that Poland will intervene. As for Trump, who seriously believes he can even get a ticket to run in the next election - seriously damaged goods and the Republicans have been burnt by him. Anybody but Trump would be how the party strategists be looking at it.
Doesn't matter a sh*te how Republican strategists are looking at it. I'm blue in the face saying it, but it's the base who decides the candidate.
Anyway, Trump may end up being Ukraine's greatest hope in the sense that he would give Biden the best chance of a second term and allowing the Democrats to keep it at least close in US Congress, thus leaving open the possibility of more funds/weapons to Ukraine.
Yes your 2 or your 4 seem most likely to layman me even if I wish it were otherwise.
The Western support (well read US there, as they have been the main mover [an organiser/coordinator - as well as what they provide themselves?] as regards supply of weaponry) does not seem to be sufficient for Ukraine to give a proper beating to Russia that might cause a rout + then a crisis and crack the regime. I suppose 2 could itself cause such a crisis in the regime, but maybe not, as Ukraine has pushed them back quite alot already and those retreats didn't appear to affect Putin's position. He just blamed his minions (and US/NATO etc.), and doubled down on his war.
That is deliberate IMO and stems from fear or caution being more charitable, not from cynicism or some desire to drag the war out and "bleed" Russia.
It is enough for Ukraine not to lose here and maybe take more terrirtory back (provided some "wild card" doesn't happen like Chairman Xi fully opening his weapons locker).
I have noticed it is quite quickly increased and/or adapated any time Russia tries a new strategy here that has success (e.g. the big focus on ruining critical infrastructure in Ukraine was followed by fairly rapid sending of much more sophisticated air defences that had been "off limits" before) or escalates the war (using sieges and creeping barrages on cities, brutality, war crimes).
Another day another fire in the motherland this time a gas pipeline 2000km away from the Ukrainan border,
One fire has directly led to others breaking out,
It not in Ukraine's interest for Wagner to disengage. Handiest way of keeping them engaged is to slightly retreat. Just keep them in the killing ground. This tactic is one of the oldest military tactics.
It was the tactic that Hannibal used at the battle of Cannae where Hannibal slaughtered 50k Romans. Hannibal however was not like General U S Grant who knew after any victory no matter you losses you have to push home the advantage.
The Ukrainian's do not want Wagner anywhere else but Bakhmut. They will do what is necessary to keep them interested l.
But remember
Bakhmut will hold for as long as it suits the UA.
BAKHMUT HOLDS still
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