Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Russia would face reprisal in that instance. Ukraine would be within its rights to target Russian launch systems with its own missiles. As you know, Ukraine has hit strategic targets on Russian territory, and this would continue in the situation you describe. I have to think, also, that Ukraine would get a lot from NATO in terms of missile defence systems, significantly stilting the threat.

Ukraine won't be able to push back into Russia to defeat them or get them to at least ask for a ceasefire, although Russia might start asking for that in an attempt to keep Crimea but doubtful Ukraine will listen.

Once Russia is removed from Ukraine then you could have NATO doing more joint training exercises with Ukraine which would be the only way to get Russia to stop making pot shots over the border for fear of hitting NATO forces. Then over time Ukraine gets more EU and NATO integration and Russia has to back off properly.

Russia could start asking for a ceasefire to keep Crimea, and that then might be a position to be able to start extracting money from them for rebuilding and getting Russia to demilitarised Crimea and maybe even get them to clear any military out from a zone around the Ukraine border.... But they would never go for that.

The Russians stalling (for now, at least) in Bakhmut and the decision by Ukraine to pour more troops into the region shows once again that the intelligence which Ukraine is receiving is good. It wasn't just a nationalistic folly by Zelensky to continue to try and hold that city, as had been suggested.

Not true at all, Ukraine has limited air defense systems,they can only cover limited number of areas and could get overwhelmed with the right tactics

Having more planes than your enemy doesn't matter much if you cannot, or will not, use them effectively; if you will not properly leverage that advantage. Russia can clearly appreciate the tactic of massing men, but they can't do that with planes? It doesn't make any sense. There's obviously more to the story than "Russia has more planes than Ukraine, but aren't doing that much with them because, uh...".

I hope that this is true. My big fear was that Zelensky was overruling the generals on attempting to hold Bakhmut.

I honestly thought it was only a matter of time until it fell. That British MoD update sounds very promising though.

If Wagner can't take Bakhmut then Prigozhin may has well off himself right now and save himself the worry

Why are you trying to defend the indefensible?

Like everything else in the russian military their air force is mostly a fiction. If it was as great as you say it would have squashed the Ukrainians ages ago.

Yep "culmination" seems to be the word (hopefully).

Most of Russian regulars seem to be doing little according to reports the last few months or more.

Bakhmut front is all wagner, who have their own artillery and planes

Donetsk front is DNR militia

Only at Ugledar and in north Luhansk are there actual Russian army operating, incl RU airforce. It seems the modus operandi is to let others do the dirty work and the dying.

RU will never have air superiority, but they are also not a depleted airforce. Likely political reasons in airforce that mean they arent as active as others, self preservation for airforce really as they would get shot down. Far too many MANPADs and AA batteries.

Great analysis on the Russian winter offensive and the reasons why Ukraine stayed in Balhmut

https://youtu.be/EWKwPeSnvTE

What was a bit of a surprise was the analogy of the American Carpenter and material costs and the same costs for the Russian Carpenter. According to that, there's not all that much difference cost wise between what the Russian and the US each spend on aircraft.

A few weeks ago I believed that bakhmut would fall in a week or so or at least the Ukrainians would have to withdraw completely, as it didn't seem to make sense to hold on and risk enciclement. It came very close but it appears that Ukraine is slowly winning the 'arm wrestle'.

For sure, the incidents I spoke about were no joke, . There's nothing much to joke about if you are living in Russia I can tell you.

And are also fully aware of the consequences of using them. Even their so called "Friends", the Chinese will not tolerate that.