A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

Personally I would say anyone who listens to what Christine Lagarde or indeed Phillip Lane say are only fooling themselves. These people are worse than clueless and have demonstrated this throughout the last 2 years. Baring in mind this is the woman that told the Irish public on the late late show that inflation came out of nowhere. I would watch what they actually do as opposed to listen to the absolute garbage they spout.

Who is in the know then?

Lots of banks back then were over-leveraged, under-capitalised, oversized lines, sitting on badly rated or misunderstood instruments, the whole nine yards. There were actually talks of saving Lehman's, an actual effort in finding a buyer, I think in other circumstances they might have survived, but not in that time. I remember talking to stressed out Lehman's employees in 2008 like it was yesterday :)

True. Nothing is invincible, but indeed the situation, especially in European banking, is much better than it was in 2007. Back then it was crazy town.

it’s not just capital adequacy Europe banks have stronger liquidity and less counterparty risk. Banking is a totally different beast to what it was in ‘08.

The big question is whether risks moved out to other sectors such as funds and in the event of a few of them going under would end up bringing the banks down. That’s my criticism of the regulator at present…they have been to focused on banks that they potentially could have missed something outside banking.

Not as bad as the Credit Suisse crisis meetings yesterday, and I'm not even in CS, just exhausting you know, man I need a break on a yacht :)

Anyway I don't think the current situation is anything like it was in 2004 to 2008. Certainly not in Europe. Things have changed a lot, in almost every respect. That said, fear/nerves/contagion is always a threat, as we're seeing.

Are you claiming you knew and now know every instrument being used/sold/resold, all non existing and now existing regulations etc and also the veracity at which they're being enforced or not enforced by regulators etc?

Are you basically a financial oracle? Should you be applying for legardes job ? I'm just struggling to understand what you think has changed. Greed is still there. Stock market is still predicated on gambling so there has to be losses etc.

No doubt risky business pivoted away from the spotlight in 08 and onward but you think the business itself just went away?

I'm not even sure why I'm asking you this as I know the answer.im just trying to highlight to you the absurdity of your position.

Looking like a 20 - 30 billion " loan out " for First Republic. A market cap of £6 billion but with $200 billion of assets on it's balance sheet. Makes you wonder what assets on banks are really worth doesn't it.

The tide will go out eventually and then we will see who was naked soon enough.

They show fear if they don't though and that's undesirable to say the least...they are caught between a rock and a hard place by trying to avoid consequences previous to this, they couldn't not put up that rate as not doing it could have had worse consequences, never show fear if you are in charge or its curtains imo.

Imo The problem is they are trying to reign in inflation while not causing a serious recession but in addition to control the psychology of millions/billions of people using levers like interest rates .....it may work, I mean on paper it should and in theory you should be able to model how everything interacts and what the outcome will be but theory can often diverge from reality especially if the group gets spooked or loses faith in the decision maker(s)

Oh right, i though market cap of any business was valued by the amount of outstanding shares at the current share price. It must just be a bank thing then eh ?

Anyone know if Zuckerberg has a good track on any past predictions he's made ?

Ignore away but the market cap of any business is determined by the amount of outstanding shares x it's share price.

I think the Q&A at todays press conference covered that scenario quite clearly.

"could be vulnerable"