I've given up trying to workout or figure out what's going to happen there.
It's the whole fog of War thing, which to Ukraine's credit have been using well in this conflict. It's in their interested (and the Russians too I guess) that Joe Publics like ourselves cannot get a clear picture of that fight. I think we'll only know how any of this went long after the fact. Kind of like how in recent months we've learned how the Battle of Hostomel actually went (and how close to disaster Kyiv was).
how many times do you have to be told that Georgia were the aggressors who started that war?
I don’t think Reuter’s are Putin bots do you?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-georgia-russia-report-idUSTRE58T4MO20090930
That report really doesn't paint Russia in a very good light, does it?
The UN blamed Russia for the escalation.
Remember the last you posted it 🤣 🤣🤣
How's your army doing elmer???
Interesting point.
Can you predict the weather?
I posted last year that I taught that Bakhmut might be used by the UA as a kill zone against Wagner group. I have seen noting to change that opinion.
While Wagner us still intact there has been serious damage done to it and to its reputation. Yes it has been horrific for the UA soldiers involved there as well but the Wagner group is now probably not the force it was when the war started and it is now struggling to recruit for what we are told
That has nothing to do with alot of the comment from last May about parlous state of Ukrainian military ("outclassed").
They seem to be holding their own.
They may do even more than that if the "West" supports them more with the aim of giving Russia a really good beating here, vs (IMO) main strategy during this war of watching what Russia does next and increasing support to Ukraine to check that move.
Shame it wasn't deployed just a little bit sooner.
I imagine Wagner find it handy enough to recruit mercenaries when said mercenaries expect to be pitted against poorly trained/armed militias from developing countries. Not so easy when the mercenaries know they are going up against Western backed/trained Ukrainians and Western Tech.
Ya it's grand going out to an African state where you are back up to there regular army. You are up against poorly armed rebels with no military training and poor equipment.
You can do a bit of murdering, raping and looting. The risk factor is may e 1-2 get killed a year out of a thousand
Really,have you heard of Putins hybrid warfare?and seperatists movements?
Russias interference and influence in Moldova,Georgia and Ukraine is the reason for the conflicts,nobody else
I'm sure he's being facetious but the underlying point is true. There are a lot of accounts masquerading as OSINT where the primary goal is pushing a particular message and gaining followers.
On the contrary, there are many actual OSINT organisations/accounts out there who can back up everything that they report such as Oryx. That's the gold standard.
I was listening to the latest episode of the Battleground podcast. They attended a briefing from Western officials where they were shown intelligence reports where the deduced reasoning for why Ukraine was continuing to hang on in Bakhmut was pretty much that. Or, as they put it succinctly, "to kill Russians".
Ya gonna blame the weather for this howler too? 😂
Ya you have to kill them somewhere Bakhmut is a good a place as any. Again I taught last Autumn it was an ideal killing zone
Might not be true,
It's not on the ft website who supposedly made the claim,from what I gather the Ukrainans are still training on the systems.
Be interesting to see any real confirmation
I think it's this article they're referring to, which is certainly not as definitive about it as the Kyiv Post tweet implies:
Ukraine is understood to have received one of two Patriot air defence systems promised by the US and Germany, but it is not yet operational. It is also expecting some Patriot launchers from the Netherlands.
I noticed it when this all kicked off it went from one or two well known accounts that were operating for years and gave accurate assessments and analysis,then all of a sudden hundreds popped up claiming to be exmilitary or something else and all unvarifible sources,
12 months ago people couldn't find Ukraine on a map but now believe they are experts on all things ukraine.
You do wonder what of the alternate reality where western based equipment was already in-situ before russia invaded, i.e. if Ukraine had all the equipment they have received and been promised to date ~this time last year, would putin have even tried to invade or just sat complaining and sabre rattling.
When I saw the heading, I tried to guess why the leopard was pretending to change it's spots. One was; 'I wonder who failed to invite him to their party.'
The analyst said Orban was fretting after not being invited to the summit of leaders of all Eastern European countries in Warsaw, where Biden was personally present.
How any Hungarians, or East Europeans, could have a soft spot for the Orcs is beyond me.
That's what I was thinking,
Not seeing it on other outlets or sites , other than Ukrainians are training on them
I'm sure he still would have invaded. They certainly wouldn't have gotten as much land initially.
Can you imagine how that 40 mile Russian convoy outside of Kyiv would have faired with HIMARS.
USA was already arming Ukraine since 2014. If you are talking about tanks, HIMARs, Patriot systems etc - these cannot be secretly delivered overnight to Ukraine. They have to be approved by congress. Russia would simply have brought their timetable forward.
He absolutely Still would have invaded,he had the numbers and time on his hand he thought it would have been another 2014, some words said at the UN and redline statements and nothing else meanwhile ukraine would have been reduced to a tiny landlocked state russia in sole control of the black sea ,
Moldova and Belarus would be integrated back into the motherland and suddenly Russia would be om Polands and elsewheres borders,.
But putin and the majority of people didn't bet on the Ukrainans standing and fighting.
I'd also say pressure from having the 4th highest inflation rate in Europe is having an effect also. A lot of his political success came from the alleged stability of the Hungarian economy, if that's shaky then his political future is clouded because people don't like their freedoms eroded but they especially don't like a struggling economy.
Tweet says received, so I assume it's crossed the border into Ukraine. I know it takes time to physically deploy. There was another tweet I was going to post, which clarified it (delivered, not deployed etc...), but it also mentioned this will finally enable Ukraine to shoot down ballistic missiles (there's been some debate here on that, so I wanted to spare that drama again)
Not by much though, would putin have invaded while trump was busy downsizing and trying to dismantle NATO? Before NordStream 2 was mostly complete or while most countries were locked down in a pandemic? (those are also reasons why the equipment being there couldn't have happened) but you'd be looking at the likes of Kazakhstan now and looking to what they should be doing (given how impotent the russian army has turned out to be against an organised smaller force).
Well it's for certain that had Biden told Putin at some point during the massive buildup; 'I hope you aren't planning on doing anything rash, I have given Ukraine 4 nuclear weapons and the means to deploy them.' The invasion never would have happened.
The US's fixation and obsession with non-proliferation is partly resposible for this situation in the first place. The easiest and cheapest way to protect Taiwan against China would be to do the same, in secret and only announced as a last resort.
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