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Cold Spell (of depth and duration uncertain!) starting Tuesday 7th March

Rebelbrowser

Hi all

Appreciate I will get criticism for starting this thread but I'm starting as:-

Cold spell threads are fun (even when they are a bust)
Its the last hurrah for this winter (and see 1 above)
There are a lot of us following, specifically, the potential for cold next week and having to post about it on the technical charts - which isn't correct
I said on a thread about 3 days ago that someone would open a thread - and so I'm now doing it to make my own prediction come true!
Most importantly, because the current indications mean there is chance we will see an event next week actually worthy of its own thread.

On that there is lots of model uncertainty. There seems to a general consensus now (and apologies for the non technical description, I'm not one of the more knowledgeable posters) that will see artic air descend from the N/NE over the entire country overnight Monday into Tuesday 7 March. I think there is a consensus also that it will be, to use a technical term, bloody cold on Tuesday.

Beyond that the consensus ends. The ECM, the most reliable model, has it as a 1 day "event" only before mild air pushes back in. Even as a one day event it might be pretty forgettable with no snow and, in truth, nothing remarkable in terms of temps, etc.

The GFS, being the American model, is far less reliable but, for what it is worth, has the spell lasting several days.

Moreover, all the models are flipping here and there and clearly it is a knife edge situation as to what happens after Wednesday.

The most up to date charts we have are the 6z GFS. They do show fairly notable weather for next Tuesday morning. I've pasted the charts for 7am below and they show temps down to -6, windchill adjusted temps down to -10, upper temps over the country of -8 and below as well as thickness values that would easily support snow if there was the precipitation.

Snow prospects definitely best for northern areas at first. If the spell is prolonged though there is always the holy grail scenario of atlantic fronts pushing up against, and ultimately sliding under, the cold air leading to a potential white gold fest. Highly unlikely but...

Just as a teaser, here's a chart of 10 March on the 6z GFS showing sneachta as far south as this here county (and yes, its only 1cm)

So all in all, there's definitely a good chance this could be a whole load of nothing, but there is a chance it could be something more than that and worthy of a thread.

If it turns out to be a bust, so be it, its fun to post anyway....

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BrandonBay86

I think all the weather warning whingers in north Leinster will be eating their words in the morning, about 30m right at coastal Meath and now turning white. If it freezes overnight it’ll be lethal. Met pretty spot on.

Rougies

It's always the same. People don't have any patience and don't look at realistic model guidance.

Full on snow here now in D.16 accumulating over 24 hours of rain as predicted. Although I had my doubts in fairness!

Kermit.de.frog

Belting don snow, trying to settle. Snooze you lose.

John.Icy

Aye periodically chucking it down here in D9 too with proper snow. Sticking to all surfaces too. The slide south of the front is beginning so we will see how things go by morning. Shows we were damn close to a proper event tonight if we got a few hours extra. If we manage a full covering it will be a good rescue job considering some of us Dubs resignation earlier.

thomasj

Crazy ! Was out 2 hours ago and while it was snowing heavy , the place was saturated and didn't think it would stick .

Anyway 2 hours later and the place is winter wonderland and still coming down heavy !

Clonsilla Dublin 15!

Kermit.de.frog

Light/Mod sonwfall North County Dublin

Dazler97

Proper snowing in firhouse will take pics in a few, another hour I'd say and the place will be completely white, already sticking to grass 😀

BrandonBay86

Chucking it down with big flakes now at coastal Meath, ground wet but sticking to cars

lordleitrim

Starting to stick/settle in Clonee/Dublin 15 now.

pauldry

Measured the snow outside and it measures 0cm.

Maybe Friday night Saturday morning might bring a snowy morning or Tuesday next. Still plenty more chances since temperatures are due to be cold a lot in the next month.

By the way my son threw a snow ball at me today. There was some on the bin from the sleet. When he hit me with it I acted like it had broken my bones and he burst out laughing so I did have fun with my 11 year old in the snow today despite there being no snow.

cnocbui

Snow has stopped, pretty clear.

Taken a short while ago.

Dazler97

Ye I'm staying up for a while also in d24 , I'd say that warning will be removed by 4am by the looks of it , if it snows further for an hour or so I'd be happy 😊

coady billy

Kermit am I wasting a good night's sleep I have curtain rash at this stage Dublin 24,

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120338684#Comment_120338684

Look how wet that shyt is. It's like paper maché

BLIZZARD7

All snow and ice pellets now !

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120338690#Comment_120338690

Measured 13cm of snow on the ground Ben Dash Co Clare at 230m elevation

Technophobe

Still snowing here..its white everywhere too now..hopefully lots more to fall but probably not based on the knowledgeable posters updates..still better than nothing.

South Meath near Trim

20230310_005018.jpg

TTLF

No no think I’ve had more than enough now- just want peace and tranquility in the weather

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120338698#Comment_120338698

The 528 dam line looks appetising in the context of an approaching Atlantic low into a northerly airmass. But no. I need to go into rehab after the last week of model watching. That said, there is a whiff of 'ninja' 🌨️ off next Tuesday

Rougies

>Cannot understand what went wrong with the forecast further north and east.

Nothing went wrong. Exactly as forecast by models really. Anyone looking at ECM and GFS snow charts need to use this as a lesson, they are low-res models. Arome and Arpege high res models pretty much nailed it.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120338683#Comment_120338683

Looks like too little too late at this point

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120338696#Comment_120338696

Gable end night light doing the lighting effects there 😃

Elmer Blooker

anyone up for more punishment next tues after the weekend warm up?

BrandonBay86

Stunning photos, looks like the surface of Mars !

[Deleted User]

Cold wind from the north and east, and warm fronts from the Atlantic gives us snow, just like 1982.

WolfeEire

A few final photos taken just now before the inevitable drip drip kicks in tomorrow after what will be a very cold night in my part of Clare. 10cm exactly at 150m asl.

Started snowing at midnight last night and continued through to 11am. Had a three hour power cut today. Had sleet and ice pellets for about four hours to 3pm and then a transition back to snow which ended at around 9pm. This evening's snow was heavier than anything overnight. A location near me recorded 11.5cm but it is slightly higher elevated. That's the highest total I have heard of in Clare but anecdotally there were as big or higher totals on the higher summits in North Clare.

Would have to say that the models that verified for my location were predominantly the French models (Arome, arpege etc), the JMA and GEM. Delighted all the same to record a proper snowfall for the first time since March 2018. Cannot understand what went wrong with the forecast further north and east.

Thanks to @Rebelbrowser for setting up the thread. It was both infuriating (at times) and fun tracking this particular event since last week. 👍

lolie

My sister near sent this about an hour ago, a few mile outside nobber in meath. Snowing steady for several hours now.

BLIZZARD7

Still too much of a mix in my part of D14 unfortunately.

TTLF

It's been snow here in D14 for awhile, but it's all too blustery & light to stick to anything honestly.

Kermit.de.frog

Mostly snow here now, North County Dublin