The DUP refusing to let Sinn Fein have First Minister means a December Assembly Election. Will the numbers change in a fresh Election?
What parties seats are vulnerable or who might make gains in any constituencies ??
You are indeed correct. You were told on many occasions by good republicans that the NIP wouldn't be amended. It has been. They were wrong.
You won't get them to admit it.
On the Stormont Brake, that is interesting. Say an EU measure is detrimental to Northern Ireland and the DUP seek to block it, but SF refuse to do so. How will that look for SF?
The carry on of the DUP would make the Klu Klux Clan look like reasonable people!
Considering which side in the last 7 years has told the most lies mistruths and ridiculous spin I think your hunch might be premature. One side(the EU and Ireland) is being very plain in their briefings the other side(UK government and Torys) ate refusing to use specifics. Even paisley junior has called this point out specifically as being too hard for the DUP to ever get to use.
There's not one mention of an electronic land border anywhere in there. What will be happening is data sharing so if/when non EU approved items cross the border and are found in the EU there is cooperation to track it back and punish those responsible, even potentially removing the green lane access for whoever brought it into NI and allowed it illegally enter the EU . Again none of this goes against the original NIP or changes it measurably it's all within the original scope for adjusting it.
Much as I have struggle with the process of greening ni with the Irish language, maybe this is the moment for unionists to be magnanimous and be more supportive of its encouragement. Much easier from a position of strength.
I will find is much easier now to come back fully into the fold of uup, if this realises my optimism from my first ready of it. - realising we still need confirmation of the position.
a good day for unionism. One year without stormont was a very very small price to pay.
You guys almost had me convinced over the past few years with your tedious arguments, that I was being over optimistic about the negotiations. Thankfully even I have been pleasantly surprised how far we have got so quickly. Don’t know yet until we see legal text if this is just another staging post or whether we have reached the goal.
here we have the ‘economic island’ scuppered and the electronic land border called for by uup instigated.
I agree, but I hope you remember what you have just posted about what eu and roi are briefing. My haunch is you might get a surprise.
You need the accompanying legal text.
Well I have no idea who, but one side is briefing wrong then. Here is what British gov are saying.
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There’s one prediction I got right anyhow! I hadn’t named francie directly, but I think you all knew he would be first to prove me right
You were told the Protocol would be 'amended' but would stay - it has. As does the border in the Irish Sea and customs infrastructure,
I know many on here will deny this, even when it is written in black and white.
how many times (I guess hundreds) was I told this was not possible
EU and Dublin are briefing that the Stormont Brake requires cross community support. Sunak has been vague, saying, 'the people of Northern Ireland'.
We'll just have to wait for clarification but either way the bar is very high to render it unlikely to be used.
Indeed, the fact that this exists will ensure everyone is well behaved:
66.It is important to note that the permanent disapplication of the rules would mean divergence between Northern Ireland and Ireland (and the broader EU), and thus it would be a matter for the EU how to deal with the consequent impact on their market. Recognising this, the EU will have the ability to take 'appropriate remedial
measures'.
Just like the UK continues to be perfectly entitled to disapply any provision in any international, or national, treaty or law - there are consequences when it occurs.
However, if it's considered a unionist win to have it written down in this form, then great! I'm as excited as the next person to see things move on from pretending this wasn't true :)
It was explained on ni news as the same as the petition of concern ie requires 30 signatures, and then of course it couldn’t survive a cross community vote. So seems very easy to call it (although it won’t be needed as the fact it exists will keep manners on the eu).
as for two parties, I didn’t realise that, but it’s irrelevant as there are 3 unionist parties in stormont.
This is victory for the DUP if they would only play it as such.
They can claim to have held out against Brussels, Dublin and Westminster to secure a better deal for The Union.
A bigger prize however, is having Sinn Fein chomping at the bit to assume the role of First Minister in Stormont. The novelty of that position will soon wear off, and the next election would surely see a return to DUP as the largest party.
SF would then have to invent new crises to bring the institutions down, their true intention all along. However the long standing claim of exclusion would have been proved false, and it would be their turn to face the wrath of public opinion. A functioning Executive is the greatest threat to SF of all and the DUP are their greatest asset in keeping it dysfunctional!
That's more or less what Paisley said.
'It's too hard to get to it' , is what I think he said.
Is this Stormont Brake effectively meaningless then from the DUP point of view?
Looks like it needs 30 MLA's from at least 2 parties to be considered so should be safe enough?
That's my understanding listening to both the PM and a few others.
The Petition of Concern from the GFA comes into effect.
Also, the 'it can't be trivial' and 'they must 'show lasting effects' are high bars.
Still need the other 'avennues of remediation' explained.
I dunno, please explain this Stormont Brake more Francie. From what little I've read, it will allow Stormont to reject any new? EU legislation affecting NI and that it will require cross community support at Stormont.
Does this include existing EU regulations?
And does it imply that the DUP & SF both have to agree on the 'brake'? Or can nationalists/ unionists as defined still have a veto?
I am moving towards liking it. Some huge developments. If you look back at my early posts in other threads about the problems of the protocol, I am pretty confident they are all gone. Ecj still oversees eu law - but the areas of eu law are now massively reduced. And they can’t really play silly buggers or we can block all new rules through the Belfast brake
Live in the HoC now. Will be interesting to hear the tone of the DUP contributions.
Council elections on 18th May. Perhaps the DUP's plan is to sit it out until then, taking credit for the changes made while at the same time avoiding giving Allister ammunition to call them sell-outs by going back in.
Someone should maybe tell him its too soon so....
Well, he's out in public saying it.
Too soon francie. Unionist people need to take our time. We’ll pull the dup into line again if needs be - either direction
I enjoyed the reference in the first paragraph to the damage ‘rigorous implementation’ would do. Exactly the words used on the letter from all non-unionist parties. Did think they would dare spank the nationalists like that.
Paisley is not having it downcow, you still going with him?
Just realising this is the one you were trying to get in on first with your spin francie. It’s a very nice read
