The DUP refusing to let Sinn Fein have First Minister means a December Assembly Election. Will the numbers change in a fresh Election?
What parties seats are vulnerable or who might make gains in any constituencies ??
Read the post again. Everyone knows what is being referenced.
That’s not what I am saying but you do have to accept that if they turn around and refuse to operate an internal border within the U.K., there’s very little that Ireland can do about it.
Yes we could have a trade war but we don’t have the physical “hard” border infrastructure to do that and any form of sanctions would damage us also in the process.
As I pointed out what people refer to as a “hard border” here wasn’t one by international standards. Had there been one, “the Troubles” would have been curtailed since moving munitions across the border/making a quick getaway/financing it all by smuggling would have been almost impossible.
If a land border has to come in, it would be to EU and Schengen standards which is more extensive than what we ever had.
Avoiding the point made. Have at it,
Not avoiding it at all, merely clarifying my point.
If you want to pretend that we had a hard border when we didn’t by any international standard and the number of cases of cross border terrorist and smuggling were public knowledge, fire away.
It won’t alter the reality that if one does have to come in, it’ll be to a much stricter standard than we had back then.
You pedantically corrected people when you knew exactly what was referenced.
And you clearly have no idea what the hard border was like or what it did.
I'm amazed that the palace didn't knock this on the head before it went anywhere, but how and ever it is quite clear now what Sunak is doing.
He is getting all 'his ducks in a row' (as Bertie said) to isolate the DUP.
He seems to believe he can handle any ERG rebellion and by meeting NI and UK retailers and business to get their blessing, NI political parties etc all that will be standing against his agreement will be the DUP.
The threat of no powersharing is no threat at all, it seems. He seems confident the NI electorate will back a majority of MLAs who support the Protocol next time out. Could see an election in NI by the summer.
Interesting week ahead.
Can he take the ERG though? From everything we are led to believe he is incredibly weak within the parliamentary party. But we also know the ERG and especially the Tories as a whole don't really care about the DUP or NI and they are as always just a means to an end so what is Sunaks bargaining chip?
Can he take the ERG though?
that's what remains to be seen and why it will be a fascinating week again. Dusting down my House Of Commons player.
P.S. It of course may also be true that the DUP have indicated they will sign up via back channels. But they don't seem to be giving any signals of a climbdown.
Indeed.
I frequently had to show a lot more than a passport to be allowed to continue my (legal) journey.
Nothing compared to what poor Aidan McAnespie endured when he crossed.
Some people haven't a clue.
Interesting to hear Suzanne Breen (political editor of the Belfast telegraph) saying this morning that the EU are rarely brought back to the table and the dup should be very proud that they managed that and that their approach achieved dividends. That said, the unionist community can not accept the deal being muted. The big question is will the DUP and will it then split?
Unionist newspaper pats Unionists on the back.
I love the idea that unconstructive, institutional belligerence is an "approach". As if the DUP were secret geniuses all along. I'd say it wouldn't pass the smell test but there's a thin, delusional minority who think that party are anything but a set of fundamentalists incapable of governance.
Belfast telegraph (and Suzanne breen) unionists. Catch yourself on francie.
I can’t see your summer election, no matter which way this goes.
given the deal is what is being muted then there will not be an election for a simple reason:
if the dup support it then they will be devastated at any summer election (they would be the mates of the eu and gov, so why would they want them devastated)
if the dup reject it they will increase their vote in any summer election (the would be the enemies of the establishment, why would they want to give them opportunity to increase mandate)
so def no summer election.
for once in our history the people have the dup by the nose and they best not capitulate with the deal being muted.
that all said, on a positive note we have travelled many more steps in our journey to get a fair deal.
Looks like he's doing the deal with or without the DUP.
Which means he thinks he can get around the ERG, Which in turn means he is willing to throw the DUP under the bus. As it ever was, so it is now.
The ERG would face the threat of a GE which would annihilate the Tory party and the ERG.
Would Sunak carry that out if his bluff was called? Would the ERG risk him doing so?
As for the DUP, the trouble with buses, there will be another along in a while.
We what do we all think now?
could go any direction.
my hope is that all the talk over the last days as to concessions reached, are correct.
I think the key is how far it goes in removing eu control over ni. My guess is that it is going to land where eg TIV and a few individuals in dup can’t accept, and where most of the dup and majority of unionists can accept.
that’s only a guess!
ERG are not going to object if the rumblings are true, Baker thinks it is a fabulous deal.
That puts the DUP between a rock and a hard place and it looks like they are gonna fold the tents.
Will they are won’t they. I hear very positive stuff about it’s contents. Had no time to read it yet.
Very interesting, thanks for that.
The DUP would be mad to reject this deal. It puts Northern Ireland firmly into the position where it benefits from access to both EU and UK, making a united Ireland in the future economically penal to Northern Ireland.
Have to say, the Stormont Brake is a masterstroke in appearing to give something knowing full well it will never probably be possibe to use it.
Von Der Leyon very confident at the presser to say the EU/ECJ is the final arbiter.
Just realising this is the one you were trying to get in on first with your spin francie. It’s a very nice read
Paisley is not having it downcow, you still going with him?
I enjoyed the reference in the first paragraph to the damage ‘rigorous implementation’ would do. Exactly the words used on the letter from all non-unionist parties. Did think they would dare spank the nationalists like that.
Too soon francie. Unionist people need to take our time. We’ll pull the dup into line again if needs be - either direction
Well, he's out in public saying it.
Someone should maybe tell him its too soon so....
Council elections on 18th May. Perhaps the DUP's plan is to sit it out until then, taking credit for the changes made while at the same time avoiding giving Allister ammunition to call them sell-outs by going back in.
Live in the HoC now. Will be interesting to hear the tone of the DUP contributions.
