Whole lot of wishful thinking in here.
The reality is the Chinese are gonna prop Vlad up til he wins or he dies. They don't want a failed nuclear armed state on their border.
If Putin goes, it all gets a lot harder to manage.
It's not going how the Chinese expected at all ,I'm sure they were hoping for a quick Russian victory followed by access to the black sea ports , followed by a quick jaunt across the water for the Chinese to Taiwan, instead they have watched the Russians fail at every turn and the wests military rapidly rearming and rebuilding, along with the Koreans and japanese military industry picking up pace for production of tanks, weapons and aircraft,
Chinese weapons won't change the outcome of this war ,if China gets involved we could see Europen States saying we going in too ,
Meanwhile in Moldova
China won't send troops in but they will send weapons.
They also like the idea of the west running down its reserves.
China knows which side its bread is buttered (hint: look at their export statistics)
Of course,they need a massively weak West to try show how they are the Top Dog now ,
But can they fight, we've seen how Russia has done, from Afghanistan, Chechnya,and now ukraine,
China needs a strong West, to sell to.
Without functioning export markets China is fcuked.
10,000 would be nothing. In the 96 and 97 protests against Milosevic, Serbs got 200,000 and 300,000 out on the streets in Belgrade out of a population of 7 million. More protested in the regional cities and it still wasn't enough to dislodge him at the time. It took 300,000 again in 2000 to finally get him out; by that stage his police and security forces could see that the game was up. As others have posted already on the thread, for whatever reason, Russian citizens don't seem to have the ability/desire/motivation/whatever that other countries have. It is probably more similar to North Korea than China/Iran.
Looks like Israel is targeting Iranian drone production at the moment,
I wonder if they asked permission from Putin first, if they were allowed to bomb Iran again.....
The Chinese are going to become a whole lot less confident of their fighting ability when they discover that most of their gear is made in China.
Those Himars they bought on Wish were really 1000 screamer rockets sellotaped around a plank.
You never know with China, they see themselves as a globally dominant super power, unhindered by the annoyance of Western ideas like Democracy, rights etc.
Ironically they don't mind their Western created Communism.
Look at what their Comrade in Russia did, exports be damned it seems.
Most of the world isn't that concerned about Ukraine or Russian aggression, the Chinese might see this as the opening gambit of redefining the global order.
Between Russia and China, a lot of the key resources of the world are sown up.
who wouldn't like to control a sponsored puppet in the kremlin.
they'll all have a preferred replacement in mind. a friend they'd like to see on the inside.
its speculated that it happened in US elections. who knows if it did or didn't, thats very contentious.
and its been speculated that it happened in UK elections ... and well, lets just say thats a bit less contentious. 🤡
Happened in the EU parliament too, a month or two back.
America gave them a green light.
Main reason Russia is pushing for Chinese drones. Iran has been loosing their drone factories over the past month.
Might be the first time on my life im actually happy with something the Israeli military has done.
What do you think happens to an economy based on exports if their main markets disappear?
First they came for the Communists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Communist
Then they came for the Socialists
Because I was not a Socialist
Then they came for the trade unionists
Because I was not a trade unionist
Then they came for the Jews
Because I was not a Jew
Then they came for me
And there was no one left
To speak out for me
Only 20% of Chinese GDP is from exports. On the smaller side of most modern economies, just under half of it goes to what we'd consider the West.
The days of China just being a workshop of the West are gone 20 years.
I'm not saying that exports aren't important to them, they are but the Chinese economy is focused on domestic demand first, exports to Asia 2nd, the West 3rd.
The Western share is falling steadily each year.
This guy I believe is on VMTV tonight show saying Ukraine and west should have negotiated with Russia from the start to give away part of Ukraine.
It's (by far) the biggest exporter in the world. Their strategic interest is completely tied up with maintaining those markets.
Seen him.
Another OAP who needs to retire quietly instead of ranting Russian propaganda, reminds me of someone…
Interested to get his take on Northern Ireland.
It is but it's domestic economy far out weighs its exports and local neighbors like South Korea alone import half of what the yanks do.
Most of Europe exports to GDP of 30 to 50%, ourselves, Germany, Belgium, the Dutch are 80 to 135%. The Chinese are bout 20%
Exports are important to them, as they are all but it's economy is at the titan stage because of the domestic economy and South East Asia.
If Beijing decide to arm Russia , It's not going to be sanctioned in Asia or most of the world.
Has it the critical mass and economic size to weather a crash in exports to the West, certainly. It would still be very painful though and probably bloody.
It may well call the West's bluff, knowing that the pain for all will be immense. China has been building up key resource stores for years now, a majority of global wheat stores are now in China, same with metals etc.
They have planned for every eventuality, Western Europe is only getting around to discussing external threats.
Tldr: no one thought Russia would, they did. China is a lot less dependent on the West. It's may push its luck.
Good analysis but how much of the internal Chinese market comprises the sale of raw materials, components, etc... that get assembled into finished goods exported from China?
For example, do the PCB's, Screens, metal frame, batteries and case parts of your typical Smart Phone sourced from suppliers within China count as internal market trade or exports where the finished smartphones are exported?
"Ukrainians have reminded us what freedom and democracy are about. They are shaking us awake from decades of lethargy and overconfidence, and reminding us that freedom and democracy depend upon us and what we do" Timothy Snyder.
"Russia will disappear from the face of the earth when the Ukrainian sun rises" Dzhokhar Dudayev.
Слава Україні.....
Posted yesterday, but if we knew a year ago it only took some bad language for Russians to take the hump and Fuk off… 🤔
Disappointing
Not great news on the tank front, Abrams tanks not arriving for at least another 12 months some have suggested it will be 18 months before they are shipped from the US,
We're here 12 months since the actual Invasion started,the invasion that was all in our heads,
12 months on. The only thing to say today is to hell with Putin's Russia and, however difficult things look at the moment, may Ukraine prevail and some day soon be fully free.
Hear hear!
From the point of robust supply supply chain logistics does Ukraine want 59 high maintenance Abrams tanks? Better off going all in for the Leopard 2's IMO.
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