they may try to attack in the sparsely populated part of Kharkiv region, so they can attack Kupiansk from 2 sides and attempt to reclaim some of the territory lost last year in their collapse. Ukrainians have reported new military camps outside Voronezh and Kursk, so they think attacks may come from these toward Kharkiv and possibly Sumy.
other than that, more bodies thrown at Ugledar and Avdiivka. Reports of convoys of wagners arriving in Mariupol and Melitopol, likely these will be thrown at both Ugledar and Velyka Novosilka
if they had any tactical nous at all, they would not wait until the anniversary of their invasion to do all this as everyone so clearly expects, but its Putin so a great patriotic show for the motherland is what they'll get. (Just dont show the aftermath)
Yes your right
The design objectives for the storm breaker SDB 2 GBU-53/B are quite different from those for the GBU-39/B. The SDB 1 GBU-39/B is a weapon optimised for fixed targets, especially hardened infrastructure and basing, whereas the GBU-53/B is intended for attacks on moving battlefield targets, especially vehicles and heavy armour. In the simplest of terms the GBU-53/B is a glidebomb equivalent to the AGM-65 Maverick missile, but with a more flexible and countermeasures resistant seeker.
So yes two different uses for them,but for the GLSDB its the GBU-39/B thats used
Ammo shortages for the orcs are getting critical. They are tearing each other apart on social media over it.
The orc collapse will come a lot sooner than you think.
I have not really seen much commentary about this in the press, or perhaps I have missed it, but has there been a notable decline in Russian missle attacks on Ukrainian cities since the early/mid winter assault. I remember the almost daily headlines of "90 missles" from mid November to late December. While there are still attacks, are those days now gone?
Have they now failed to break the Ukrainian power network and realised they have wasted their most dangerous offensive weapons on civilian targets rather than military ones? Or are the missle defense systems now making the attacks ineffective?
For anyone wondering why the Russians are shooting themselves in the foot by starving their most effective current fighting unit (PMC Wagner) of ammo (and fresh prison recruits), Perun has an excellent video on the competing factions within Russia:
You will need to wait for his next reincarnation, he appears to have been site-banned and the bizzare racist thread he started in AH is gone too.
And yet it does
They will end up like the Rest.
Warning ⚠️ tweet contains highly blurred images of dead Wagnerites
I mean in relation to being ground launched rather than air launched at 30k feet over or near a target so it can literally nosedive down though the concrete vs ground launched and having to glide at a shallow angle to maintain maximum range.
There's a few videos showing them smashing through concrete aircraft shelters, maybe they can climb to gain a particular altitude that makes it capable of penetrating concrete
Combined with the Wagner groups complaints that they are now only receiving the same level of ammunition supply as the rest of the Russian army, it is all very telling.
Perhaps it is all not true!!! Perhaps the West with 10 times the population, a market economy, GDP per capita 5 to 10 times higher can actually out-produce a nation of Oil and Gas extractors.
Large numbers of people will be shanghaied soon after collapsing from too much vodka, and waking up to find themselves in a trench in Ukraine.
I binged the entire 5 episodes of that Chernobyl Series last night (highly recommend).
Not really related but it highlighted how constantly lying and the obsession with projecting power at any costs leads to utter incompetence. You can see why Russia is such a mess today.
Good video explaining here
You must remember that is only what they are letting you see.
The real losses of the orcs are much worse.
I have no doubt the Ukrainian sources of 1k orcs a day dying are true.
It's a pity he's gone again, I find stories about alternate realities intriguing.😋
Bizarre. A Russian soldier doing a bad rap routine. Pathetic and funny in equal measure.
Charlie Atlas, Joan Burton, Hemeriod something or other.
I wonder what his next name will be. Don't worry too much, I expect the entertainment to recommence at about 8 to 9am tomorrow morning again. He seems to be sleeping in later each morning.
I did find the comment below it stating "No Humans or Animals were harmed in the making of this photo" funny.
Berlin,they are actually still upset about what they believe is the illegal annexation of East Germany from the Soviet union,
They even went to the UN about it,
Is your wife doing anything to help put an end to the war? Does she speak with family back in Russia and tell them that Russian soldiers are raping and torturing ukranians? Is she sending them images and confirmed details of this? She may as you say be "completely against the invasion " but unless she is doing her best to pass on information to her Russian friends and family then she is pretty much like the Russians I know who are living in Ireland and they simply appear to be brainwashed, selfish, and indifferent to the suffering of others.
...
TBF, I'd probably skip the tea at that, even if they were still serving it.
Hopefully they don't meet a commissar on the way to guide them back in the right direction
While not ruling out the GLSDB attribution, I think the strikes last night might actually have been with JDAM-ERs. Bit of a coincidence that these are announced almost to the hour Biden visits Kyiv and then mystery explosions at distance happen, all within 24hrs.
5o miles is near enough 80km which is about the distance from UA held territory to Mariupol. Only time will tell.
I doubt it's 50 miles range launching from 200 feet.
That's some coincidence. I also began rewatching it this week (although I have been rationing myself to one per night). I'd highly recommend the companion podcast which features the creator, Craig Mazin, discussing each episode in detail.
Yeah the way that that erroneous 3.6 Rontgen reading went all the way from the workers in the plant, up the chain of command, all the way to Gorbachev, despite it clearly sounding suspicious seemed familiar from this current conflict. It's like the facts don't matter - there is no value in questioning them. All that matters is that you are covered and can blame someone else things if things go wrong.
Also the way that entirely incompetent people had reached positions of power suddenly becomes problematic when they actually have to make decisions about matters of great importance. The entire Russian military seems to suffer greatly from that syndrome.
Most people call the war the "Russian invasion of Ukraine", but Mick doesn't even mention Russia. If that's Mick's idea of the war, I wonder what his version of peace is like?
I've spent the last couple of days binging on analysis, Talking heads round-table chats, news articles, opinion pieces etc on where, through the fog of war, we really stand with respect to the war. Here is what I've gathered are the real worries behind the scenes in government corridors. As Trotsky once said: " You may not be really interested in the war, but the war is Interested in you..."
1. Europe needs to take this war more seriously. Ukraine is now the front line for Europe. Ukranians are essentially fighting for us.
2. Defence spending has increased by 60% in Russia.
3. US Armament factories are flat out producing shells for artillery and HIMARS but still needed to take back pre-positioned shell stocks from Israel and South Korea to divert them towards the Ukraine.
3.There is an underlying fear that, through sheer numbers ( of shells and people), together with dragging the war out and without NATO intervention, that Russia could actually retain the Donbass and decapitate the Kiev Government.
4. Countries such as the UK and Germany, who have let their militarys decline over the decades need to wake up and immediately ramp up production of supplies and weapons. At the moment, despite what some might say, Russia is out-producing Europe and the US in shells. Europe hasn't even begun yet.
Thoughts?
I agree with all of that. Putin is showing no signs of easing up on his murderous campaign in fact if anything he is threatening to ramp it up. I'm not militarily wise enough to know what should be done but I believe something drastic should be done to put an end to his campaign.
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