If the government called a general election tonight who would you vote for from the list below?
FF
FG
Greens
SF
Labour
SD
PBP
Independents
Threadbans
Skimpydoo
Do you actually understand the difference between a poll and our electoral system of proportional representation and the single transferable vote?? FG will not be able to buy a transfer in 2 years time. They are becoming the most toxic party in the history of the state and that's saying something considering FF's track record. Fine Gael have alienated everyone except vulture funds and senior bankers. It will be an anyone-but-FG vote for the majority of voters. Transfers will decide the last seats in every constituency. Your beloved FG will lose seats, guaranteed. They couldn't even keep Dublin Bay South!
As for the Greens...screwed.
true, the conspiracy theorists' are a funny lot, theres no conspiracy, our governments simply dont know what to do about our current and accelerating problems, our oppositions equally dont know what to do, again, poles are poles, forming governments isnt going to be easy from here on in, they will also be highly fragile and susceptible to collapse..
Of course I know the difference.
Transfers don't decide the last set in every constituency, they only decide it in some. In our current situation of polarised politics, the influence of transfers are overblown and really only affect where there is more than one party candidate. There are 40% of voters who will never ever give SF a preference which was why SF needed to do so well on first preferences the last time out but will struggle to pick up second seats.
The good thing for FF and FG is that they don't need to win second seats everywhere, they will have one each. It is SF who will desperately need the transfers next time out if they are to make gains.
We both know that SF would have won way more seats in 2020 if they fielded more candidates. I was utterly shocked they won a seat in Galway West which is a 5 seater. They were normally a non entity in GW. Farrell almost topped the FPV poll and I had never heard of her. I am afraid you are deluded if you think FF and FG will win a seat each in every constituency. They were scraping for many in 2020. We shall see. Plenty of chaos to come too.
In some constituencies probably, certainly in parts of Dublin. There was no excuse for Mary Lou not to have running mate. But there was a probably a reason.
In Galway West if they had ran 2 there is a strong possibility neither would have got elected.
FF suffered badly from running 3 candidates in some constituencies which diluted the vote too much.
Good election strategy is more important than just flooding the place with candidates.
I am not saying GW would have elected two SF TDs but she came from absolutely nowhere. I don't think we ever had a SF TD before. I think she has lost her council seat in previous local elections.
What you said was
SF would have won way more seats in 2020 if they fielded more candidates
My point was running more candidates can lead to less seats unless it is done correctly.
I don't think we ever had a SF TD before
That wouldn't be exclusive to Galway West.
Look at Clare.
Now That turned sour and I would reckon her political career is over and SF's in Clare going forward.
But Farrell and Wynne were very much out of the blue protest votes as one many others.
The question is how do you build on that, the element of surprise won't be there in 2 years, you distinguish your self on a national level and pump the parish at local level.
The problem at national level is there was too much consensus. The main 2 being Covid and the War.
It will be an interesting 2 years, but that is a long time in politics.
Galway West is a great example of a constituency were transfers didn't matter.
The first five candidates by first preference were the five TDs elected. FF and FG will take a seat each there next time, the only question is whether O'Cuiv runs again. If he doesn't FG could take a second seat ahead of the new FF candidate. Also possible that FG could take a second seat at Grealish's expense. Catherine Connolly's vote is preventing a Social Democrat from taking the seat and also blocking SF's advance. For SF, the lack of a credible second candidate means a second seat is out of reach.
If there are changes in Galway West it is likely SD or SF instead of Catherine Connolly and FG instead of O'Cuiv or Grealish.
Catherine Connolly will not lose her seat. She is hugely respected now. I would love O'Cuiv to feck off but he is popular out west. FG will never get 2 seats here next time out, you're dreaming. The ring road issue has a lot of people very angry.
I never said Catherine Connolly would lose her seat, I only said that SF for a second seat or SDs for a first seat would have to take her seat.
In a five-seater, 25% evenly spread between two candidates can almost guarantee two seats. Last time out, with only 18% of the vote, (10,800 votes) FG were closest to the last seat. If they could find another 1,500 votes they wouldn't be far off, but it is extremely difficult to see how they could lose that seat in the next election, given the current polls.
To put your mind at ease though, I see no change in the constituency, subject to them all running again.
When you recruit for any job, do you look for:
1) People who have some experience doing the job, or
2) People who have no experience doing the job?
Current polls have not taken into account how they have treated people in nursing homes, the vulnerable and people like me who have cancer.
There was a story in last Sundays Business Post about someone who is in remission 5 years but can't get a mortgage. The government is stalling on bringing in regulation that would allow a person who is in remission for 5 years or more not to have to mention they had cancer when they apply for things like insurance or mortgages.
People won't forget this and there is no way in hell they will end up with as many seats as they have now.
They are doing a good job so far with housing and health not to mention the refugee fookups.
Keep dreaming, there is no chance of FF or FG winning the seats you claim they will. In my constituency Dublin Bay South they won't win any seats and Bacik will lose her seat.
What experience did Zappone have when she became a minister? Especially as it was her first and only time as a TD.
This is the sort of post that is completely blinkered to reality and to common sense.
In the by-election, the three parties combined got 61%. In the previous general election they got 49.4% between them. In saying that neither Labour, FF nor FG will take a seat in Dublin Bay South, you are forecasting a combined first preference total of around 15%.
Who will take the four seats? Chris Andrews will take one, Eamon Ryan maybe another, but do you seriously think that there will be no seats for FF, FG and Labour?
Many posters can be accused of only seeing things through their own politically-tinted glasses, but your analysis of the constituency is just complete nonsense.
If the government bring in regulations like you suggest, insurance costs rise for everyone.
Galway West is a strange constituency to be fair. I don't think Grealish will go again or retain his seat if he does. O'Cuiv is a strange one - he has many fiercely loyal voters in Connemara. If he retired, another FF candidate would struggle to get near O'Cuiv's popularity. After SF's unexpected shock election the last time out, first ever GW TD - who knows how a 2nd candidate might go. Naughton will also struggle because of the ring road issue. Kyne hasn't a hope. FFG have been promising to ease our traffic problems for a long time now and nobody believes them anymore. The SocDem candidate might just scrape in if he runs a good campaign. Connolly will top the poll.
The only thing that matters to me in the makeup of the next government is that the greens are part of it so they can continue with their important work.
What experience did the other 14 Ministers around her have?
It shows you the political void. When fg retains so much support, from loyal voters, that it massacres. Peasants on 40k plus paying mental tax. Prirkth number one should be reducing marginal rate to forty percent total, maximum...
Who is the socdem candidate you refer to? Hardly Owen Hanley is it?
Naughten has announced he is not running in the next election.
Niall O'Tuathail. He ran the last time and did ok.
As you say foul ups.
Not conspiracies.
Housing and health are systemic and Mr Putler threw the wild card on the other.
That is Denis naughtem that is not running in Galway Roscommon.
Hildegard Naugthon is from Galway West
Yeah he is ex Fine Gael too. Usually a loyal IND.
I see . Would make an excellent candidate no doubt. I think his political career has passed he hasn't done much locally in a few years which would go against him. He has a young family i presume and is a software developer or consultant so might not have the appetite for it.
I have heard him speak a few times. Smart guy and knows his stuff especially around IT sector and Health. We need bright young people like him in the Dail, not the self serving gombeens of the past.
@skimpydoo It's very clear you only started this thread because you are banned from the Government thread
Well you are now banned from this one as well
