Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Loans weren’t as big in the 90’s and neither were wages….it’s all relative!!!!

you also need to remember that rate rises won’t impact all mortgage holders the same and the fact that LTV’s on the overall bank books implies that there are a lot of mortgage holders where rate rises will have a reduced impact on them. Also the trend of a reduction in overall mortgage book size as more mortgages are repaid than issued also indicates that the same.

What about buyers who bought similar in 2007 vs say 2014?

Had they the same repayments in 2022?

I would say claiming we are bankrupt is extreme. But at the same time, we have been having some great tax revenues from Corporations. We are spending every penny that we earn, very little has been put to long term projects like building social housing. But rather has moved to leasing which is going to cost the state the same money during good time and bad times.

The idea that we will always have this great cash flow from corporation is just but a dream, when this stops the state will have to cut cost (as it happened during the last crash) and/or increase taxes for the ordinary citizen (as it happened during the last crash)

Also your assertion that we should be using GDP as it looks better is not valid in the Irish context - https://www.politico.eu/article/ireland-gdp-growth-multinationals-misleading/

Rate rises won't affect cash buyers or people who were looking to have mortgages well within means. It will hit those seeking to go to full 3.5x and more.

If you take it a 5 year fix might cost 2% more than last year. Then over 5 year period on say 400k mortgage (buying 500k house at 80% loan to value) thats 8k pa and 40k over the term of 5 year fix more they are paying vs same 5 year fix last year. So for buyer to be in same position financially as prior year then a 40k lower purchase price would be needed. I.e. if house was now 460k they are no better off (lower upfront payment but lost again in higher int payments).

So Im not saying prices drop but it does impact purchasing power and ability to service debt for lot of people. Maybe supply is so bad and savings so high that buyers shrug it off. Time will tell.

Do you really believe this? Do you think adding an additional 2 monthly mortgage repayments per year is easy for a couple at 57k gross per year each?

I would be surprised that people on this salary have 3.5k easy on hand without making any sacrifices somewhere else.

Do you think that your mortgage repayments in 2022 were less than someone who had bought a similar property to yours in say 2007? I'd imagine they were. Possible trackers notwithstanding!

Not sure why you are trying to argue something different and irrelevant. The original point I responded to was:

Even taking trackers into account (I said notwithstanding, not ignoring) it is the case that there would be circumstances for people who waited who would have been in better off financial position compared to those who jumped in at the top. That you might know one or two cases which were not better off does not prove that the only part of the original post. Talking about "many" does not prove an assertion as to "all".

i get the sense that it is january and that there are approx. 4000 more homes on the market on daft compared to Jan last year or a 30% increase on last year ((17000-13000)/13000) these figures can be interpreted many ways too soon to say anything definitive just yet

Over 1,000 per month per room, 2,000 for a 1 bed apartment

Pricey

Which wouldn't be too far off 6% and rising. A game of pass the risk parcel before it blows up.

2 major US real estate funds have cancelled redemptions to prevent selling and price discovery. This may work as the markets are kiddy expecting a reverse in interest rates.

A reverse in interest rates will likely lead to much higher inflation. Very dangerous year ahead for assets

I'd say we are not too far away from this in Ireland also

The vendor is getting out of 100% their investment in the property and then buying debt instead. Completely different asset class.

It isn't a property company realising some gain in one property to use to develop their next project.