The DUP refusing to let Sinn Fein have First Minister means a December Assembly Election. Will the numbers change in a fresh Election?
What parties seats are vulnerable or who might make gains in any constituencies ??
There is going to be a strong push from the likes of the Alliance, SDLP, Greens and UUP away from the structured devolved government to allow for more variation and options for the second designated party to take seats if the first doesn't as well as the formation of proper coalition governments.
It will be difficult for the likes of DUP and SF to learn to compromise in these situations, but they are absolutely necessary for Northern Ireland.
Stormont previously collapsed on 16 January 2017 when Martin McGuinness walked out of government. It took until 11 January 2020 until it was restored.
It could be that the DUP are attempting to take this record away from Sinn Fein.
Alot of the comments im seeing from places id say are mainly alliance/nationalist voters seem to be resigned to Stormont never coming back now so you might be right.
This is my opinion.
I think Nationalists know the statelet has failed, and know it will never work.
So they will be happy enough with the direction of travel to Direct Rule, because that won't fix the issue at the heart of the failure and the conflict/war and Brexit and the Protocol - the stupidity and calamity of Partition.
That it (partition) is now coming back to bite both Unionists and the British will not be lost on anyone in the Nationalist community.
Will Nationalists quietly accept direct rule though?
I'm quite shocked they're not rioting on the streets already. But I Suppose if one side's telling tale tales, or flat out lying, about the threat of the Protocol then like Brexit itself you can somewhat understand why the public are sleepwalking through this limbo.
I think the British government is going to sideline Unionists. I think you'll see them heading towards Direct Rule if Unionists remain intransigent after a new agreement on The Protocol.
Jesus will Stormont ever come back if its gone this long?
For the first time ever I would understand if people in NI were rioting in the streets due to being denied proper representation and governance for this long.
I don't think it is a simple as that. Even in the article you are quoting the SDLP are suggesting that compromises are on the way on the Protocol that will allow the DUP to take a different decision. The real crunch for them will come if there are changes and there is a decision to be made.
Emma DeSouza nails down exactly what the DUP are trying to achieve.
So apparently Jeffrey has said repeated that the DUP won't re-enter Stormont until the protocol put in place by their government has been replaced. As they already know that this won't happen, this simply shows that the DUP are still unwilling to sit in an assembly led by SF (ignoring the will of the people effectively!).
mod: Right, the two of you put your handbags down or I'll take them off you!
It really is tedious having to watch the two of you sparring against each other constantly.
I have accepted it,
It's held it's own.
I object to your demeaning choice of words and have given another view on it. You seem to think you have carte blanche here. I am entitled to my opinion just as you are.
Bizarre response. I am not going down any more rabbit holes with you, it is tiresome.
A simple factual statement that the total nationalist vote has decreased slightly or flatlined at best since 2011 is somehow driving you into all sorts of fantastical twists of my words. It has nothing to do with whether an individual party finishes top of the pile, it has nothing to do with electoral battles between different parties, it is not an opinion poll, it is a simple statement of fact about election outcomes that you seem unable to accept.
A Nationalist from the largest party is being locked out of the First Minister position blanch. The statelet was designed so that would never happen (a Nationalist in the most powerful position) and you claim stagnation. Ok.
Stagnated or held its own, I don't have a particular problem with words, just noting the facts that the nationalist vote hasn't moved the dial.
You don't need to be a nationalist to vote for a UI if that is what you are alluding to. Otherwise it is an electoral battle between different parties and we can see who is winning that.
I wasn't talking about any political party, I was pointing out the factual information that the total nationalist vote in Northern Ireland has stagnated at best since 2011.
There's a lot of parties 'stagnating' on the island so.
And the most recent election sees the nationalist parties at 39.8%, in line with that poll, and below the 41.1% achieved in 2011. Stagnation is the name of the game.
This was a poll, not an election.
Even if you add in Aontu for 40%, that still leaves nationalist parties BELOW the 41.1% achieved in the Assembly elections in 2011.
Hardly evidence in support of the unstoppable demographic imperative?
The much vaunted advance of the Alliance party seems to have stalled too.
40 - Aontu on 2%
Downcow also forgot to count them above.
Nationalist vote now appears permanently stuck at 38%, most interesting aspect of the recent poll.
No problem being opposed to something...problem arises when you use your own people as hostages.
Not going to end well as a strategy.
No alternatives to the Protocol that satisfy The EU
No alternatives to the GFA that has majority support.
Unionism has just reverted to Never Never Never and is hoping somebody rides to their rescue.
….and all this doesn’t even consider that Alliance voters are reported to be 75% union supporting (if delusional).
TUV support = SDLP support.
remarkable to say the least. John Hume would never have dreamt it
That’s a spin and a half :-)
tell me am I reading this right?.
All the nationalist parties have a minus at them. While the unionist block moves further ahead 42:38, if I am counting correctly, but maths never was my strong point.
….and remember that every single representative of that 42, council, stormont and Westminster are opposed to the protocol. Yes 100%. It’s remarkable, 100s of political representatives and not one single one has broke ranks to say protocol is ok.
Mad to think that SF are just 10 points behind the entire Unionist vote.
The DUP losing votes on their stance and the UUP holding their vote with a slight increase is the significant figure here. TUV can split the vote but will really signify very little, still a one MLA party.
