The situation at Soledar looks really bad. The defending Ukrainians have their backs to the river Bakhmut with supplies being funnelled through vulnerable bridges (marked in blue) that are likely already being shelled by the Russians.
Unless something changes dramatically and soon, Ukraine will have to withdraw to the opposite side of the Bakhmut.
Interesting to hear Solovyov support the act of war crimes - I can't see any situation where he doesn't eventually end up on trial at The Hague (Nazi propagandists were on trial at Nuremberg, not just politicians and the military).
Russia are not going to be defeated akin to the Nazis - there will be no unconditional surrender. As much as we would like it otherwise, they'll all be able to happily continue their lives, albeit confined to Russia and some other supporting territories.
That is sickening!
Not sure how reliable the source is but just seen a report that Ukraine's troops in Soledar have now been instructed to withdraw.
Could be misinformation hoping to convince some Ukrainans to fall back weakening themselves even more,
It's only Monday things will change day to day for the next while, remember before Kherson people on here had suggested the Ukrainans were in dire straights and cut off ,and retreating
Kherson was liberated
Also some reports of ammo dump of the invaders near Kreminna being destroyed with Ukrainian forces close to the city.
Ground freezing in the north east of Ukraine could see movement over the next few days so stalemate may be replaced by advances and hopefully success for Ukraine in removing the invaders from their land.
Russia doesn't need to be invaded or defeated though for there to be a war crimes trial or international tribunal. It could go ahead even with Russia being a sovereign, independent state and unoccupied. Milosevic for example was extradited to The Hague.
Have the UA soldiers been told to withdraw or have the journalists embedded with them been told to withdraw? Can read it both ways.
Good point. I guess it is more likely that it is the journalists being told to withdraw.
There's one possible alternative to that scenario Podge, but Putins biggest threat to Life, Liberty and the pursuit of happiness, might not come from external sources, but from within.
I wonder will they be going after these folks like they are far right groups in the EU as recent news mentions support for crimes is a crime. OFC the EU has no jurisdiction I know that but the Hague. Non of this should be Swept under the carpet.
Supply routes reported to have been cut off. Usually means a withdrawal is issued soon after.
Fall of Soledar will likely mean a withdrawal from Bakhmut in the near future.
Dunkirk was a defeat for the Allies but the withdrawal was a huge success. Kherson is something similar but on a smaller scale.
Listening to people on this board would make you think the war is effectively. Far from it I am afraid.
Yeah UK Ministry of defence says this is likely.
Canon fodder pays off occasionally.
Quantity has it own quality
They are throwing cannon fodder ahead of regular forces
If Ukraine dosent win they will be fodder for Poland
Give them tanks & f16 ffs.
I'll bet any amount you want that there will never be a Nuremberg style trial for the architects of this war. More often than not tyrants and their henchmen get away with this stuff
Just because you dont like what he's been sayig as of late does not make it any less true. All his posts & conflict maps are based on geolocated videos, mostly Ukrainian ones. Or are the Ukrainian army discredited too?
I'd be fine with that option too. We'll see what happens
Opinion piece on what supplying Bradley's and potentially Abrams to Ukraine means. In my view, they're for ferreting out dug-in rats, and indicate a shift in tactics.
Russia still have a chance of holding the territory that they have and gaining more in Donbas.
At eye watering cost though and only held by putting some conscripted bollox in every house with WW2 surplus rifles, permanent trench warfare.
That could go on for years at a low level of conflict. A victory of sorts but a running wound that they would have to keep pouring money and men in to.
They are just as likely to be routed again in other parts but the longer it goes on the more chance that they have of holding what they have.
It's why Europe needs to become serious about supporting Ukraine.
Across Western Europe we are already past 1 trillion in Energy price supports, nevermind the damage to the wider economy, never mind the additional costs to rebuild Ukraine.
Puts the lethargy of Europe in to context.
Some volunteers in Bakhmut warning people to get out of Soledar, and also to avoid the bridge in Krasna Hora.
Additionally Russians are claiming to have taken Krasna Hora, although this is unlikely yet. More likely they are attacking it from one side and shelling the town.
Ukraine may destroy these 3 bridges over the Bakhmutska to slow the Russians down near Bakhmut, would mean the next nearest crossing is by Soledar and would be a pinch point for Russian forces to attack.
Absolutely a plausible scenario (the only really plausible scenario for his downfall alas).
But there isn't going to be mass courts for propagandists, enablers and underlings. If Putin is deposed it will be by those underlings after all. I'd settle for just him meeting a sticky end.
Not a good morning for the UAF
But holy fcuk the amount of lives the Russians have thrown at this. Could well be a pyrrhic victory.
Is there a primary reason for the drip feeding of weapons to Ukraine?
Why don't the US and EU just send absolute **** loads and let Ukraine annihilate all the invaders and every military installation in Russia within reach of missiles?
Genuine fears of escalation into open conflict with Russia. It was, and is somewhat still, a valid concern - you can't take anything that has the potential of ratcheting up into nuclear conflict lightly! However, I think a historical view of the period will suggest that we were too cautious about this.
This MBT discussion is particularly ridiculous. They are going to do it sooner or later and there is clearly growing pressure. Just bloody do it now.
It would make you question why with the drips off gear how many Ukrainian lives are been lost that might have been saved.
Its just prolonging the war.
F16's would be utterly pointless and wasteful in this war. Russian aircraft are staying well back and we don't see the pics of downed jets the way we did at the start. In that sense Ukraine already has "air superiority". Why? Ukrainian anti aircraft weaponry makes it too risky. That weaponry costs far less, requires far less training, infrastructure and support than jets. Fighter jets are very effective for a fully integrated and wealthy military like the US for example, more of a pain in the arse for militaries like Ukraine. For actual results a couple of HIMARS are worth more on the ground than a couple of dozen F16's in the air. Official Russian spin and scuttlebutt on Telegram rarely if ever mention the Ukrainian airforce, they froth at the mouth trying to tell the world about how HIMARS and the like don't matter. That should tell us all we need to know about which weapon platform is more effective. A fw dozen modern battle tanks would be welcome alright.
Both Russia and Ukraine have already "lost". The question remains how much of a loss both will end up with. Unless something changes radically, Russia has pretty much no hope of moving much beyond the gains they've made so far. Look how long Russia has taken to get even close to taking Bakhmut. Look how many men they've lost and up against a much smaller force. On the other hand what Russia has already taken looks pretty secure for them for the moment. They just have to keep piling bodies into that area to shore it up. As you say quantity has its own quality. That will make it very hard for Ukraine to drive to the south coast for example. Unless again something shifts radically, on and off the battlefield.
Off the battlefield both have lost, but Russia's losses are so much higher and more longterm. Ukraine has the support of the world, especially the places in the world that actually matter.
Found a some way positive report from Soledar:
Lots of comments like this on Twitter but I don't think that is the case.
The situation at Bakhmut is weakening, albeit slowly. I don't think it is in danger of falling in the near future, certainly not in the next few days or weeks.
If Soledar falls, then Ukraine will fall back behind the Bakhmut river. The river isn't that wide, but it will be difficult for the Russians to get across given how militarized the entire area is. My guess is that the northern part of the Bakhmut front will stabilize behind the river.
In all the noise over Soledar, not many people are talking about the attempted Russian advance in the south of Bakhmut. It looks like the Russians are trying to cut off the village of Klishchiivka which has been an important strongpoint protecting a major highway that you can see in the map. It remains to be seen how effective this advance will be.
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