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Worst to first, zero to hero

mikemac

For 8 years in a row and 10 of the last 11, a team that finished last in their division the previous year has won it. So an incredibly high percentage, it's almost a given.

Below are the last place finishers from last season.

Who do you think has the best chance at winning their division and going zero to hero?

AFC East: Buffalo Bills (4-12)
AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals (4-12)
AFC South: Tennessee Titans (6-10)
AFC West: Denver Broncos (4-12)
NFC East: Washington Redskins (6-10)
NFC North: Minnesota Vikings (6-10)
NFC South: Carolina Panthers (2-14)
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals (5-11)

I think the Cardinals are the obvious choice
Maybe not the Bills :pac:

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Foxtrol

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

Bears have about 20 million in cap space next year (estimated). Not great like it's been the last few years, but not a nightmare. The problem comes when trubisky has to be renewed. Can't afford Mack and a QB.

The cap increase is the majority of that 20m and it is before they try to sign extensions to 3 starters, who are due to hit FA. Not sure if they have any easy cuts to make some space.

They're doing the right thing trying to spend big when they have a QB on a rookie deal, in both dollars and draft picks, which is why I agree with Thomond that it would have been a disaster if they hadn't shown this kind of improvement, especially with how surprisingly poor their division has been. Mack definitely changed things but expectations should have been higher to begin.

Oat23

Dion Sims is getting cut and only $330k of his $6,330,000 salary is dead cap. So there's another $6m freed up.

If Kyle Long wants to remain a Bear he'll have to take a pay cut and lower his $8.5m cap hit.

Line coach Harry Heistand is high on Rashaad Coward who was actually a NT when drafted, but is a RT now. He could well step into the starting lineup to replace Bobby Massie who is pretty crap and won't be re-signed. His cap hit was around $6m and Coward's is $500k. Massie's # is of course factored into the $20m mentioned above as he's a pending FA, but if they want Coward to replace him as the starter we don't have to spend big on a RT in FA.

Plenty of room to maneuver, and the only FA that is a must-sign would be Callahan. It would be nice to bring back Adrian Amos, Aaron Lynch & Josh Bellamy though. Pace has been very good with it comes to structuring contracts so I'm not worried about the cap.

mikemac2

annual bump

The Texans and Bears went from worst to first last season

For 17 of the last 19 seasons a team finishing last has won their division the next season

Your candidates this year are:

Jets
Bengals
Jaguars
Raiders
Giants
Lions
Buccs
Cardinals

Every year people say it won't happen but history and statistics show it almost certain at least one of these will be a division winner.

What do you predict?

N1977

mikemac2 wrote: »

annual bump

The Texans and Bears went from worst to first last season

For 17 of the last 19 seasons a team finishing last has won their division the next season

Your candidates this year are:

Jets
Bengals
Jaguars
Raiders
Giants
Lions
Buccs
Cardinals

Every year people say it won't happen but history and statistics show it almost certain at least one of these will be a division winner.

What do you predict?

With the news coming out of the Colts, you've got to pick the Jags this year. Can't see any other team doing it from this list.

ScrubsfanChris

Probably go with the Jags. Raiders should improve but can't see KC not finishing top.

eagle eye

Jags, Bucs and Cards look like the only possibilities. Decent QB in Jacksonville could completely change that offense, a very good HC makes the Tampa Bay a possibility and new QB and HC means there is a possibility of Arizone rebouding.

D9Male

I really don't fancy any of the teams this year.

Cardinals at a push. Maybe Bucs.

Onecoolcookie

Jags the most likely from that list I'd say

Leslie91

Jags.... or maybe even the Jets!!.

Guffy

Leslie91 wrote: »

Jags.... or maybe even the Jets!!.

They'd be my two as well

[Deleted User]

Certainly not the Bengals.

I'll go Lions.

adrian522

So, looks like no one did this last season....

This years candidates are:

Miami Dolphins
Cincinnati Bengals
Jacksonville Jaguars
Los Angeles Chargers
Washington
Detroit Lions
Carolina Panthers
Arizona Cardinals

No easy choices there!

ipitydafool

Probably Lions or Dolphins for this year? NFC north does seem more wide open, packers flattered to deceive last year and vikings or bears have plenty of question marks. Stafford was very good last year before injury throwing it alot more, maybe they surprise everyone even if Patricia one of the HC on the fav list to get canned first:) Dolphins did very well under flores last year given the gutting of roster and if Tua gets starting and fires, they starting to put some v good parts of team together, jones and howard the best CB duo in league. Patriots prob at their most vulnerable for 15 years and bills under allen still have alot of concerns, jets it can go one of two ways, apparently darnold doing well so far in training camp but alot have injurues and dont trust Gase at all. I think chargers can do well even under taylor, their defense is so strong but cant pick them over chiefs. Jags are a write off, bengals, panthers, cardinals and Washington are in divisions with at least 2 very strong teams.

Guffy

Miami or cards for me.

East is a cluster f*ck and a bit fitzmagic could easily do the job.

Cards are miles ahead of where they were last year and the 9ers have no one to throw to. Seahawks are obvs the team to beat there

Ohmeha

Think it will be another season without a worst to first but Miami would be the only one I think could have a chance

Foxtrol

Out of the options I think the Chargers are in the strongest position to come 2nd in the division. It would likely take an injury to Mahomes (more likely in the time of COVID) to get them above the Chiefs but it is probably the easiest buy for me.

Out of the other likely ones - the hype of the Cardinals seems really over the top as they still have huge holes in their team that they didn't really address, a coach and QB that could feel the sophomore slump, and 3 strong teams in their division. Miami are going in the right direction but they had huge turnover of players with a short camp to gel and both the Bills and Patriots look better on paper.

adrian522

So Washington were last years worst to first team...who have you got this year?

Eagles

49ers

Lions

Falcons

Jets

Broncos

Bengals

Jaguars

Eagles and 49ers look to be the best options but then no one had Washington winning last season so you never know.

Lionbacker

Yeah, 49ers definitely the obvious canadidate to do it.

Would'nt rule out the Falcons though. Saints surely are going to step back wihtout Brees & the Bucs only caught fire during the playoffs last year. They were'nt exactly pulling up trees during the regualr season at all.

BonnieSituation

49ers by a mile.

Eagles are only an option because of the dumpster fire of a division they are in.

I think that's between the Boys and Football Team tbh. Only Dak is back I would have had WFT to break the "repeat" hoodoo.

eagle eye

I'd be looking at the Jags and the Bengals as most likely.

The 49ers are in a really tough division and it's hard to see past the Rams with Stafford.

Lawrence will make a huge difference to the Jags whose biggest issue was the man under center last season. The return from injury of Joe Burrow and the addition of Ja'Marr Chase makes the Bengals very interesting for me.

Obviously the Eagles have a chance in an awful division but it's impossible to predict how good/bad they will be.

Foxtrol

Eagles - small chance to flip things due to weakness of the division but very unlikely

49ers - most likely though being in the toughest division in football will make it difficult

Lions - still weakest team in their division

Falcons - weakest or 2nd weakest in division (nearly completely dependent on how good/bad Darnold is)

Jets - still weakest team in their division

Broncos - shouldn't be the bottom team in the division this year

Bengals - still weakest team in a tough division

Jaguars - won't be the worst team in the division only thanks to the bigger dumpster fire that is the Texans

Christy42

49ers

Eagles

Falcons

seem the most likely in that order. Certainly they need some things to go that way, especially the Falcons who need the Saints to fall apart with Winston and for Brady to fall off a cliff like Peyton, neither of which I expect but I just can't see a way for the others to get there either.

ArmaniJeanss

Bump for the Bengals.

Foxtrol

Always amazing how tight a league it is. Most teams are just a few minor improvements and/or a healthy run or a bad injury run and/or bad form by their division rivals away from going from worst to first.

This year the Bengals got basically all of the above in their favour.

adrian522

NY Jets

Denver Broncos

Baltimore Ravens

Jacksonville Jaguars

NY Giants

Seattle Seahawks

Detroit Lions

Carolina Panthers

Who you got? Baltimore the obvious candidate there. Hard to see Denver winning that division but they should be better. Detroit should improve but don't see them overtaking the Vikings and the Packers.

Could Jacksonville make a run?

eagle eye

I'll plump for the Panthers and Jags.

Saints without Peyton and with Winston at QB, Mariota starting for the Falcons and Brady seemingly having off the field issues and a new head coach.

Jags with a decent looking head coach, last year's no.1 draft pick under center, and Travis Etienne ready to go. Two serious defensive players added in the draft this year imo.

Titans don't have AJ Brown anymore, I think Matt Ryan is a beaten docket and the Texans have a lot of work to do.

Christy42

I will go for the Jags and Ravens as the most likely. Jags for reasons listed above, and the fact that they are my team and I could use some hope.

Ravens because they were pretty injury ravaged last season and still managed to be within 2 games of the division title with an 8-9 record so a serious chance of winning the division if they stay healthy. Especially as I can't see the Steelers or Browns winning it. Bengals are the favourite for the division and rightly so but there is always a chance that orginisation manages to ruin a good thing somehow.

NY Jets. Pretty unlikely to do it. The team seems to be improving. I have doubts about Wilson but even if he comes good that division is murder.

Denver Broncos. While Stafford and Brady had success both had issues right after their move. If they lose a few early that division will make it rough to win it outright.

Baltimore Ravens As the section above

Jacksonville Jaguars As above

NY Giants: New coach who I think can do well I just don't see it with Daniel Jones. That division is frequently a bit nuts but Dallas and the Eagles should have too much for them. One of the least likely to do it imo.

Seattle Seahawks. By far the least likely on this list. Several powerhouse teams in the division and being led by Geno Smith.

Detroit Lions I like what Campbell is doing but the Vikings have built a good team and Green Bay have Rodgers. Too early for them I feel.

Carolina Panthers - Eh, Saints and Falcons should be weaker but the Saints still have a lot of talent and I just can't bet against Brady. It would be a surprise but hardly the biggest from this list.

ArmaniJeanss

Jump for the Jags

Christy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120081556#Comment_120081556

Makes me a happy Jags fan. Far too early but handy to have the list here. Next year's options are

NY Jets: A competitive team without great QB play. However it depends on them getting a QB that works with that system and even then beating the Bills will take some doing. Still 7-10 means they were not miles off play offs.

Texans: Maybe if the Jags regress against a tougher schedule, Titans and Colts could easily still spiral and they make Young/Stroud work but I don't see it. The team still has too many issues for me.

Broncos: Would need a HC to can get out of Russ what Carroll managed and even then that division is still tough to win with Mahomes and Herbie. I don't see it. Good defense though.

Browns: This seems a long shot, really counting on Watson suddenly remembering how to play after an off season but he has looked terrible so far. It is also a tough division so it seems like a rough one.

Commanders: A new winner in the NFC East every year so it gives them a shot. Like the Jets they were competitive and not a mile off the play offs in spite of their issues at QB. If they solve the QB issue they are in with a shot but that is a big if.

Falcons: Screw it, not reason why not. No massive reason why either. One game off the division this year and Brady either gone or another year older. This division is a mess.

Cardinals: Likely a new HC but Murray won't be there at the start of the year. SF will be a tough beat and let's see what Seattle can be next season as well. A lot of talent for a HC to work with but I don't see it.

Bears: The hardest to get a read on since the entire team will get a revamp so it depends on their draft and all the free agents they manage to bring in. Vikings have a lot of talent returning but it is hard not to see Jefferson regress at least slightly from his record setting pace and they just barely scraped by this year in a lot of games. Packers are very much in the air and Lions will look to improve from just missing out on the play offs.

Mr. Guappa

This year's choices are:

Falcons, Bears, Cardinals, Commanders

Jets, Broncos, Browns, Texans

The Jets will be a popular shout, but it's a strong division so even if they are really good, winning the division is still a big ask. Similarly the Broncos, Commanders and Browns could bounce back, but in strong divisions it's hard to see them coming first. Cardinals are a write off.

So that leaves Texans, Bears and Falcons. I'll go Falcons in a weak division with a load of offensive weapons.