There is some level of chance that he will stay fit for the entire tournament, or at least be fit for all the important games… and our hopes rest on that largely.
Resting him for the south africa game would be one possible strategy to keep him healthy.
Except he went off early in the first test
There's a rest week between South Africa and Scotland.
It's not all back to back.
He was durable enough to play three consecutive tests in the summer...
I'm not keen on relying on a 38 year old out half. But the back up is not very good! He's played enough to gauge his talent and he's been disappointing. Yet, he starts for Munster and Crowley is played at center. This would probably reflect the coaches mindset on Crowley. He's not getting minutes at 10!
There's no doubt that there's no other quality out halfs available. I think Crowley will be a good option in a couple of years.if Sextonmisses the world cup, we are fcuked.
The Sexton Paradox of never being fit and available, yet playing every match and preventing anyone else from getting experience.
Sooner or later, Sexton is going to rip a hole in the space-time continuum.
And as we're sucked into a swirling oblivion of nothingness, a load of boards.ie posters will be screaming "TOLD YOU WE SHOULD HAVE PICKED CROWLEYYYYYYYYYYY"
To be fair to you, we have made mistakes in past world cups of assuming players will be great because they've been great for so long. Age and minutes played does catch up with everyone eventually. But I think that's why Sexton needs to play in 6N, we need to see if he's still good enough and durable enough. Personally I think he will be but better to find out in 6N rather than at World Cup.
He was world player of the year in 2018 and didn't perform at the 2019 RWC
He is also 37 and will be 38 years old by the time the RWC starts, with hundreds of hours of training and gametime between now and then... He's not washed up now (although he played rubbish against Connacht before he injured himself) but 9 months is a long time and players can decline rapidly.
A lot can happen in the next 6 months before the RWC squad is announced
Yeah, there's a really good chance Sexton won't be fit in a few weeks, no one is suggesting otherwise. The only news around this has been that the injury isn't as severe as originally thought so there's a chance he might be healthy for the start of the 6N.
The Irish coaching team have much better insight on this than you as they've direct access to the player and all the medical data.
Who do you propose is Sexton's back up if not Carbery?
It's clear there will be at least one more out half in the 6N squad, and it's likely to be Jack Crowley I would imagine. They aren't going to force feed him minutes or starts he hasn't earned, but at the same time, I'd imagine he'll have picked up some more caps before the RWC comes along.
Guys like Crowley and Frawley have probably got a better shot at being the third 10 in the RWC squad because of their versatility and ability to cover multiple positions.
Edit: final q: Is Joey Carbery more durable than Johnny Sexton?
absolutely not !!
We'll see if Sexton is fit in a few weeks.
I don't think Carbery's injury profile justifies him being 'the' Sexton backup. We need at least one more out half who is up to speed
I think there's a 50% chance Sexton isn't travelling to the RWC at all due to injury. AF has the choice to risking playing him in the warm-ups, or bringing him in cold and warming him up against Romania and Tonga. Neither are particularly encouraging options
Nor is dropping him in against South Africa having not played any competitive rugby in several months
Rugby is an attritional game. The RWC is a unique tournament where there are 7 matches back to back with only 1 rest week that, in irelands case, increase in intensity week on week
For context, the Heineken Cup knockouts are 4 games spread out over 2 months
The 6 Nations are 5 games with a rest period and no knockout stages
Every team wants to play their best players, but the RWC is a marathon, not a sprint. To win the RWC you need to have as many of your best players fit for the final as you can, and this means you need to have depth in your squad so that you can rest them or allow them to recover from knocks picked up in earlier stages of the tournament.
You should sent your CV in to Lansdowne Road and tout your credentials for Andy Farrell's gig since you've got it all worked out so well clearly.
In the last couple of days alone you've come up with the amazing, strategic insight of: (i) potentially assuming Jonathan Sexton might not be fit enough to play against Wales (AF and his coaches would never have thought of that), and (ii) Instead of picking our greatest ever (and still by some distance our current best) out half we drop him for a more durable player.
*chef's kiss* I'm sure it's just a hilarious coincidence that the guy you have a problem with in both instances happens to be Johnny Sexton.
Carbery has plenty of minutes against competitive sides and is quite obviously the back up.
Also, Farrell quite clearly has adjusted the gameplan to be less reliant on the 10 position. It doesn't matter what the gameplan is, Sexton will still be the best at implementing it.
What up and coming stars were left behind in 2019?
We adjust our gameplan and bring in players who are more durable and give them game-time in the few remaining games prior to the RWC in September.
We can do this while allowing Sexton to properly recover from his broken cheekbone and not risk further injury
Sexton should absolutely play a role in the RWC if he's fit. But he should not be the only player who has any proper minutes against competitive sides
Don’t all teams in all sports rely on their best players?
What's your solution then?
Then I guess we aren't winning the world cup then.
Have you seen the run-in to the final? He ain't making it through the QF
Assuming he's rested for the first 2 games against lower tier opposition (which is in itself an assumption) Sexton would need to play South Africa, Scotland, NZ/France, and then the winners of the 0ther QF and the final all back to back as a 38 year old out half that every other team knows is our most vulnerable position.
Its not gonna happen.
the dunning kruger effect is mightily strong here.....
He's our best 10 by a country mile. It's not so much we rely on him as the drop off when he's not there is huge.
We can chose to not play him in the hope someone else turns into a world class 10 but he's missed a lot of games and no ones stepped up and demanded the Jersey.
The coaches have backed Joey and he'll get plenty of minutes but he's not on Sexton level and that's unlikely to change before the world Cup.
Should we drop Furlong, Porter, Beirne, VDF, Dorris, Ringrose?
We rely on them as well....
So, just to be clear here, are you calling Jonathan Sexton (nominated for World Rugby Player of the Year in 2022) a washed up player?
Also; clarify for us please who are the up & coming stars who aren't getting selected?
Which is why we can't be relying on him for this years RWC
Yeah, tbh I didn't even consider him (or Paddy Jackson) as they aren't eligible for selection. I don't see enough of either of them to have a clear view on their current abilities, but would imagine they'd be high enough on the list based on current ability.
While this criticism of excessive loyalty might have been applicable to Kidney and Schmidt, all the evidence for Farrell indicates that he's the complete opposite.
Players with a debut in a RWC year is the most extreme 'Bolter' scenario
I'm talking about washed up players being brought to the RWC because they were good the year before while players who are up and coming stars are left at home because they 'haven't proven themselves'
They may have a few caps for their country from playing 2nd tier opposition for a few minutes when there is nothing to lose so they won't be included in that table.
No JJ? Based on current ability he cracks the top 5 imo.
I thought you were. Now I'm sure.
Ditto 2011....He should have played against Wales.....
"It is well known to weaken Ireland you take out Sexton, something the scots and saffers will try in the world cup, Sexton does not make Ireland strong, he makes Ireland weak. To be so reliant on one man is a weakness"
So you're saying Sexton is poor and dreadful but at the same time you're saying to weaken Ireland you take Sexton out. Makes sense🤪
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