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Ireland - 2022 Year in Review

[Deleted User]

I had a look at the 11 games Ireland played in 2022 to see if there were any interesting stats or observations jumping out.

Firstly, on a team level:

· We outscored the 11 opponents by 127 points, but largely helped by blowout wins early in the year v Wales, Italy, England & Scotland.

· Our scrum success rate over the course of the year was 89% (opponents 84%), lineout success rate 91% (opponents 85%) and our ruck success rate was 96% (opponents 95%).

· Overall we shaded both possession and territory, with c. 52% possession over the 11 games, and 56% territory. There were some outliers in there though skewing the numbers – we had 60% possession versus both England & Wales. Over the NZ series we averaged 49% and had the same number over the November series.

· While we carried for 916m more than our opponents, on a metres per carry basis we were only marginally better (3.4m versus 3.3m), which really illustrates the war of the trenches attritional nature of modern rugby.

· We kicked the ball slightly more than our opponents (272 v 258), had more clean breaks (57 v 44) and more offloads (78 v 68).

· Our tackle success rate was 88%, directly in line with our opponents (also 88%). We averaged 90% for the 6N, 89% for the NZ Series and 85% for the November series (with an appalling 79% v Fiji).

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[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119975218#Comment_119975218

What good is getting to a semi final if we then lose it?

Would you rather win a Grand Slam or lose a semi final (if the option is just one or the other)?

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119975236#Comment_119975236

In 2023. World Cup semi final please.

Former Former Former

2022 was the year we moved on from out halves who definitely aren't good enough (Carty, Burns etc) to guys who might turn out to be good enough (Frawley, H Byrne, Crowley).

That's progress, even if people won't acknowledge it

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119975256#Comment_119975256

Yeah, that's ridiculous.

Semi final appearances are a product of the draw primarily. If we switched places with England in this RWC, and managed to beat Japan and Argentina in our pool and then Wales in a likely QF, three teams we've thumped recently, would that make us a great team, if we then got opened up in the semi?

We've won three Grand Slams in 100 years. It's a bigger achievement.

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119975280#Comment_119975280

We had quarter finals against Wales in 2011 and Argentina in 2015, both of whom you'd have expected us to beat at the time. We didn't and we now have this monkey on our back, akin to not beating New Zealand for such a long time, that needs to be gotten past.

The Argentina result in 2015was directly attributable to having a team, not a squad. We've come a long way since then, with the glaring obvious exception at 10. Who do you play at 10 against France or New Zealand next October if Sexton isn't fit? I doubt Andy Farrell even knows the answer to that question right now.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119975452#Comment_119975452

I doubt Andy Farrell even knows the answer to that question right now.

I’m not sure why you doubt that? Farrell has consistently picked Carbery as his 2nd choice 10.

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119975467#Comment_119975467

Gone way off topic here, apologies for derailing thread and its probably one that needs it's own thread. However giving Carbery 4 minutes against South Africa in November would not suggest to me that he is trusted to guide the team in a tight contest.

aloooof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119975479#Comment_119975479

How much he trusts him in comparison to Sexton is a different question tho. Your original was this:

Who do you play at 10 against France or New Zealand next October if Sexton isn't fit? I doubt Andy Farrell even knows the answer to that question right now.

It’s clearly Carbery in Farrell’s thinking.

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119971227#Comment_119971227

I had a look at this, over the past 2 seasons. I broke down the tries by style of try (options either Line Break, Maul, Pick & Go, Numbers Up, Cross Field Kick, Kick Through or Strike Move), and then by Attack Build Up option (Multi Phase, Set Piece or Broken Play). I finally looked at the timing of when we scored our tries.

In 2021, we scored 46 tries in 10 games. Broken down by 'style' the largest component was Pick & Go tries (14 tries - 30% overall), followed by Line Break tries (11 tries - 24%), Numbers Up (9 tries - 20%) and then Mauls (7 tries - 15%). We had a handful of other tries via cross field kicks (1 try), kick throughs (3 tries) and a strike move try (1 try - Keith Earls v England).

In terms of attack build up - 27 tries came after Multi Phase play (59%), 5 via broken play (11%) and the remainder via Set Pieces (14 tries - 30%). Of the 14 set piece tries half were mauls (50%), 5 from line outs (36%) and 1 each from scrums and a quick tap penalty.

No particular concentration on when we scored our tries: split 48% first half v 52% second half; highest ten minute window was 70-80 mins (8 tries), but we scored 7 tries in the 30-40 min window and also in the 50-60 min window, so scattered around fairly evenly.

In 2022, we scored five fewer tries (41 overall) in 1 extra game. We played a tougher schedule in 2022, versus 2021 when we played the USA, Japan twice and Argentina.

Largest source of tries in 2022 was Line Breaks (18 tries - 44%), followed by Numbers up (8 tries - 20%), Pick & Go (7 tries - 17%) and then the maul (6 tries - 15%). One single try via cross field kick (dubious one - Mack Hansen v France but didn't know how to classify it) and one Turnover try (Ryan Baird charge down v Italy).

Largest build up source was again Multi Phase play (27 tries - 66%), followed by Set Pieces (11 tries - 27%), Broken Play (2 tries - 5%) and the solitary turnover try.

Of the 11 set piece tries, mauls accounted for 55% (6 tries), followed by scrums (3 tries - 27%), restart (1 try - 9%) and quick tap (1 try - 9%).

On the timing, we scored slightly more second half tries (56%), and the largest windows for scoring were the opening 10 mins (7 tries - 17%), ten mins after half time (7 tries - 17%) and final ten minutes (7 tries - 17%), which to me is testament to our coaches ability to identify weaknesses, our tendency to start well, and our fitness.

Conclusion

Despite the narrative, over the two seasons, the maul is actually our fourth highest source of tries (13 tries - 15%), considerably behind Line Breaks (29 tries - 33%), Pick & Go (21 tries - 24%) and Numbers Up situations (17 tries - 20%).

We score the majority of our tries from structured multi phase attacks (54 tries - 62%), with set piece next (25 tries - 29%), with surprisingly few Broken Play / Turnover tries (8 tries).

Over the two years, the biggest window for scoring tries is the final 10 mins (15 tries - 17%), this is probably skewed a little bit by a lot of late 'salt in the wound' tries against the likes of Italy, Argentina and Japan, with the only meaningful late tries in my opinion being the two scored against England this year in Twickenham.

From looking at the clips of all of these tries - the two best occasions where our attack looked especially fluid and dangerous were the NZ third test this summer and the November internationals in 2021, especially against Japan and Argentina.

The best overall tries in my opinion were:

Hugo Keenan v Italy (2021), James Lowe v Japan (2021), Caelan Doris v NZ (2021), Garry Ringrose v Wales (2022), Joey Carbery v Italy (2022), Mack Hansen v South Africa (2022) and obviously Robert Baloucoune's outrageous finish against the USA in 2021, but the single best try was Hugo Keenan v NZ (third test - 2022).

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119975452#Comment_119975452

No, there's not a team in world rugby who if they lost their 5 most important players arguably would have beaten Argentina in 2015 (and we still came relatively close). We lost Paul O'Connell, Peter O'Mahony, Sean O'Brien, Jonathan Sexton & Jared Payne. Taking the 5 equivalent guy (same positions) out of that same All Blacks side in that RWC (the best team I've ever seen) would have meant stripping them of Brodie Retallick, Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw, Dan Carter and Conrad Smith. There's no way that team wins the RWC in that scenario.

There's no monkey on the back for the vast majority of these players. A good chunk of our squad were barely teenagers when we lost to Wales in 2011, and telling them about Lens in 1999 or even Melbourne in 2003 might as well be telling them about when rugby was 20 players a side back in the 1800s for all the relevance it has on them.

On your final question - obviously Andy Farrell doesn't have a crystal ball - but if Sexton isn't fit, all signs point to Carbery starting at 10.

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119975479#Comment_119975479

Gone way off topic here, apologies for derailing thread and its probably one that needs it's own thread.

This is literally the last thing the Boards Rugby forum needs. The topic has been discussed to death at this point.

sydthebeat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119975218#Comment_119975218

carbery has 38 irish caps... he made his debut 8 years ago...... he isnt getting any better with the more minutes he is given, that is an indisputable fact at this stage. So he is where he is, and he is the clear second choice out half.

if carbery starts against France in the 6 nations then two things are clear

this will not make carbery a better player
this will reduce our chances of winning the game compared to starting sexton.

so it makes completely zero sense to start a fit carbery ahead of a fit sexton, all things being equal

in the off chance we bring a 3rd dedicated out half to france, we have moved on from carty and burns who have shown to be both not at the required level and not consistent enough to playing anything more than the dirt trackers of a RWC.

we have move donto crowley, frawley and brough Ross Byrne back into the mix.

Ross Byrne has 2 test starts to his name, both against a very good england team. hes 27 now and hes consistently consistent. We know what he can do, but his best traits probably suit a Schmidt ireland more than a Farrell ireland.

We tried Frawley at 10, and while there have been praise for his performances, id still describe it as serviceable more than anything else. His big issue is putting 80 min performances in back to back and staying uninjured.

arsebiscuits1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119975549#Comment_119975549

Will you marry me?

Dubinusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119975887#Comment_119975887

Again! Lol

TRC10

At this stage, anyone still claiming Carbery hasn't been given enough games is either being willfully ignorant or is just plain stupid. I've posted the exact stats a few times so I'm not doing it again. Go back and look for yourself.

There has to be some onus on the player himself to show some form that demands selection.

TRC10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119975452#Comment_119975452

Who do you play at 10 against France or New Zealand next October if Sexton isn't fit? I doubt Andy Farrell even knows the answer to that question right now.

How can even the most casual rugby fan who keeps one eye on Irish rugby, think anyone other than Carbery is the clear deputy to Sexton in Farrell's mind.

You can't be serious.

molloyjh

I also find the idea that we should have been beating Wales in 2011 quite odd. They had beaten us in the 6Ns that year and only came below us on the table on PD. And that came from a big win over England in the last game where we played far better than we had all tournament. This was also the same Welsh side who then went on to win back to back 6Ns titles after that.

Dubinusa

We had just beaten Oz in that tournament. One of our best displays. But, Wales had a good side and deserved to beat us.

molloyjh

Yes we had just beaten Oz. With Reddan and Sexton as the half backs. The same pairing that beat England in that 6Ns game. The 2 best results of the year with the half back pairing that also won a HEC playing some great rugby. And who did Kidney select to start the QF? Murray and ROG. A duo that had started all of once together for Ireland before that. To this day I just cannot get my head around that decision. Why start such an important game with such an inexperienced 9 and a 10 who was on his way out as opposed to the guys who have proven to deliver. It was shocking stuff really.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119977407#Comment_119977407

Cause ROG threw a hissy fit and threatened to retire and Kidney was too weak to tell him to piss off.

Anyhoos - its been a good year in lots of ways. The lack of a trophy to show for our clear improvement is an issue though and one that Farrell will be very keen to address so anyone expecting shadow teams in the 6N is in for some disappointment.

sprucemoose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119977407#Comment_119977407

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119978077#Comment_119978077

it was because those results were 6 months previously, sexton had played poorly in that 6N up to the england game (in which he played well) and his goalkicking in the RWC wasnt near the required standard

of course, it was the halfbacks that missed easy tackles on phillips and davies to allow the soft tries that were the difference between the teams on the day, wasnt it? even though neither were on the field for the JD try.......... murray and o gara didnt have that much to do with that loss in reality, much as they didnt have their best games either, but theyre easy scapegoats. it was a relatively poor team performance overall, but yeah blame only goes the 10 who was actually able to kick his goals (as he did in that game) and his provincial half-back partner (made sense to keep them together), makes sense.

kidney made some strange decisions during his tenure but he was largely correct on this one, the team as a whole didnt perform. they didnt either against USA and it was reddan-sexton in the halves but i wouldnt say it was completely down to them.

as for kidney being too weak for o gara, seriously? do you not remember the 2013 6N?

molloyjh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119978141#Comment_119978141

He was in his hoop largely right. He put a novice 9 into a knock out game in a RWC. One of the reasons we struggled that year is because Kidney couldn’t decide who his half backs were. He was constantly switching them around. TOL with Sexton, Reddan with ROG, Boss with ROG, Murray with Sexton, Reddan with Sexton, Murray with ROG, TOL with ROG. He took one of the best squads we’ve ever had and mixed it with indecision and an inability to understand where the game was going and made us worse with every year that he was in charge.

I absolutely do not blame ROG for us losing the QF. Nor do I blame the hugely inexperienced Murray. I blame Kidney. We could never have done well that year when he couldn’t figure out either how or who he wanted to play.

EDIT: Also, I do remember the 2013 6Ns. He was still selecting ROG in the 23 when he was nowhere near good enough. Remember that attempt at a cross field kick vs Scotland? ROG had no business playing 6Ns that year and the fact that it took such a poor performance to call time on his Test career was as much a bad thing for him as it was for Ireland.

pickarooney

Constantly pricking around with the half-back pairing and the coach not knowing how or who to play worked out well enough for France that year.

Buddy Bubs

How did you compile those stats? Hardly from rewatching all the games and taking notes?

molloyjh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119978441#Comment_119978441

It did? They got well beaten by NZ in the pools before losing to Tonga which prompted a revolt in camp against the coach who was doing those things which is, in the end, what got them to the final. Lievermont wasn’t responsible for their success that year. They got to the final in spite of him.

pickarooney

They started the final with two scrum halves, Parra at 10, and still arguably should have won.

You can do all the prep in the world and fail in the QF or engage in complete lunacy and still somehow get to within a point of winning the WC.

(If you're France)

[Deleted User]

Those stats are great but the real discussion that needs to be had over and over is Ireland and world cup quarter finals

sprucemoose

The 2013 6N comment was more to the other poster tbh, but to respond to your response - o gara was in the 6N squad because he was still the 2nd best 10 available by some distance. Jackson would become a much better player in later years (other stuff aside) but he wasn't anything special at that stage. O gara was poor in that Scotland game absolutely but I'd imagine dropping behind Jackson messed his head massively, Jackson was pretty poor than day too let's remember. I'd also imagine he was in the squad as he was a possibility initially for the lions tour that year, mainly since the quality of alternatives was really poor that year apart from sexton - they basically brought hogg as a 10, but not being involved with ireland after that game probably killed any chances for that. His performances in the European quarter and semi that year showed he still was probably the best option for JSs backup but wasn't to be

As for the rest, you may have a point that there was too much change overall, but I can understand the logic of trying to build a number of options. What messed it up massively was o learys form dropping off a cliff leading up to the rwc and Murray coming into the mix instead. But ultimately I don't agree that was the losing of the QF, as I said in my previous post and many other times, the halves actually weren't pretty average in that game but nowhere near as bad as people make out. O gara and Murray had played together a fair number of times at that stage too so I don't think that had anything to do with it

Missed tackles against Phillips and Davies were the main reasons tbh, two incredibly soft tries and if they didn't happen ireland win the game despite an average enough display from most of the team. D'Arcy and Kearney were very poor that day if I remember correctly too

AbusesToilets

Murray's passing was glacial at stage, Reddan was a much better scrum half. I don't agree that Sexton wasn't playing well, couple of missed kicks aside. Fact is, Wales would have known that Murray and O'Gara weren't capable of playing an attacking game to the same level as the Leinster halfbacks. That means their defense can let in more aggressively.

It was a terrible decision on Kidney's part .

[Deleted User]

Saw there were a bunch of posts here that I hadn't read, only to find a row about Declan Kidney. I love it!

P.S. after 2009 he was garbage.