For that to happen, the whole car industry will be in trouble at the same time IMO.
Elon could be sitting with a big inventory
Yeah I think the interest rate rises for those going the finance route will cause a portion of those to cancel. Interest rates and supply will be the big factors on car sales figures in 2023
Expected delivery is Feb -March so a lot could change before then. I'll wait and see.
The hire Purchase Apr has increased from 4.9 to 5.9%.
So some people would consider the lack of radar a cancellation issue? I know I would be, considering the combined 23 years of cars parked outside both have it.
"Unless Elon has solved that" 😀
I haven’t seen Bens review posted here, or maybe I missed it but he’s normally very detailed and gives a good review from an M3 owner moving to a MY.
That's the exact reason I'm giving you based on the regs (and the standards guiding those) and interactions with regulators I believe a system with one sensor solution will ever be approved.
I just drove home in icy conditions tonight my front and side cameras completely froze.
De icing camera not so easy not just a matter of adding heat directly need to consider ESD regulations there also unless Elon has solved that.
I know they can be heated in sentry mode but not sure they can while driving?
Also the very thing may help to clear em then became the issue (salt spray).
I don't believe vision only is a pipe dream, for exactly the reason I gave you. It only needs to be safer than a human. Not perfect. I'm convinced the regulators will be satisfied with this. Why wouldn't they be? Of course you have a point that anytime a Tesla with AP enabled is involved in a fatal crash, it makes world headlines. Same as if an electric car goes up in flames. While AP is already safer on motorways than humans and EVs go up in flames far less than ICE cars. People are afraid of change and like those headlines that aim to keep everything the way it was. Progress is the devil 😂
Have you had a look at any very recent video of FSD beta in the San Francisco area? It drives like a careful granny most of the time, but you can clearly see its vision is far superior to a human, it sees things earlier and responds even even before the human notices what it is doing. When it can't quite read the situation at a junction, it creeps up a little bit. It is kinda scary that it is so human like.
Agreed and on reflection the first part of my reply to you wasn't the best starting with "ahh here..."
But main point is vision only is only a pipe dream and the incidents happening with the public beta testing and misuse of "auto pilot" will only strengthen reg authorities against it. Lot of these incidents and accidents have been users using it like L3 capability.
But my "favourite" (wouldn't use that with accident) incident is when GM autonomous taxis sent all cabs to the same junction in San Francisco (I think). That's probably cloud/V2X issue which a whole different discussion.
@podge1979 - appreciate the discussion and agreed that it is off topic here and really deserves its own thread
It seems you and maybe also an advisory organisation like the SAE are striving for perfection in autonomous driving. Hence the need for lidar, maybe also even flir and multiple other sensors like radar and ultrasound on top of vision. Perfection is not what Tesla is aiming for and I am with them. As soon as an autonomous driving system, any system, is demonstrably safer than a human driver, it should be allowed to operate. And I believe this can be accomplished with vision only. I'll go as far as to say it has already been accomplished with the latest versions of FSD beta
Apart from proving that it has, the two remaining hurdles are convincing the regulatory authorities to accept this and - the big one - for the manufacturer to take full responsibility. I haven't heard much if anything from Tesla on this matter, which is a bit cowardly. Where the likes of Mercedes-Benz have no issue with this and as such they already sell cars that are level 3.
Larger battery.
Performance increase.
AWD.
Hard to pay the extra for the average Joe that just needs a box to drive A-B I agree.
Given you can have a brand new rwd Model Y in March 2023 for €53K, €71K could be difficult to get for a March 2022 one even if it does have a larger battery etc.
Model Y LR on DoneDeal.
€71k
https://www.donedeal.ie/view/32746048
Tesla Model Y 2022
The regulators and the standards associations go hand in hand. SAE give the guidance needed.
I've dealt with NHTSA, FuSA certification and VCA (vehicle type approval including the UNECE requirements) supporting from supplier side with OEMs in Europe, Asia and US also some big tech players. Also involved in IATF certification and compliance to other standards like A-Spice and cyber security certification like TiSax).
You can try to pick holes I've no issue with that but I'm saying from what is see in the technology and regulation fully autonomous vision only systems are a pipe dream.
Also I've seen the development of lidar (sister plant) in first generation model to a third generation now which is commercial. Some have a payload of 125g now and getting smaller.
In my view Tesla's decision here is also cost related too and there are signs of them rolling back.
With processing power improvement and advances in Ai I also see it in this decade as do most of the big OEM (China OEMs will be big players in advancing through SAE levels) and other big tech players. The biggest issue currently is figuring out the corner cases multi sensory systems will be more reliable and more importantly safer doing that to built processing maps using inputs from say 3 sensors using 1 for redundancy.
From experience and practically speaking vision is not optimal in certain use cases and environmental conditions it has to be complimentary (that was even the case with low speed autonomous parking systems).
One other thing Musk is playing a dangerous game with regulators in my view, need to work with them instead of slagging em off. Same in other industries say like in pharmaceuticals implementing pharma 4.0 regs came were honed working with the industry.
That will be they same in automotive like with many of the new UNECE standards. Who do you think the regulators will align with entities who are engaged and supportive or slagging em off and practically silly features (like farting cars) like any good game know your referee. Being disruptive in EV world was a lot easier than in autonomous driving (less convincing needed and building on already approved technology).
One last point I used to be a vision only advocate, there was I think and ex Google guy who had a vision only path (project X) looked promising but also hit limitations.
Anyway speal over I think this might be a topic for a different thread.
Yeah the Tesla promise of "coming soon" can never be trusted to mean "soon". Didn't they offer full self driving as an option way back in 2016? The owners of those cars will be fairly lucky if their car will really be fully self driving in most parts of the world 10 years later...
Have Tesla not clarified the sensors are not related to Autonomous driving, they are limited to Summon, Self Park and Parking Aids and not used in Autosteer, Autopilot etc.
Personally I will not be going ahead with a purchase until proven parking assistance in the field, "coming soon" simply not good enough for me to bite
@podge1979 - "you won't get past SEA level 3 autonomy without redundancy in sensors"
@podge1979 - " But what do I know I've only dealt directly with the regulations and the regulators"
Any link to that? Which regulations and regulators have you dealt directly with, I take it you mean the SAE? They are not regulators and they don't make any regulations. Surely you are aware of that? They have defined generally accepted levels of autonomy but they have zero regulatory powers in any of this anywhere in the world as far as I know.
If the powers that be, say NHTSA in the USA or the UNECE in many other parts of the world, including here in Europe, decide that Tesla cars are allowed to fully self drive and Tesla itself takes full responsibility for the cars, then BOOM the cars go from level 2 to level 5. Who cares about level 3 or 4? This can happen any time if those two conditions are met. I expect it to be this decade.
With all due respect I work in the industry and have worked in a automotive camera company. I'm very familiar with the current capabilities of camera and future roadmap of camera technology. Musk can say what he wants but the simple fact you won't get past SEA level 3 autonomy without redundancy in sensors to either pass functional safety regulations and there are more regulations coming down the track all the time with will effect vehicle type approval. That would be like Musk opening Elon pharmaceuticals and ignoring the regulatory authorities.
He may have some joy in some countries but I'm fairly positive what he is doing will not be capable of being level 3 or above in Europe. So until tent Tesla's "autopilot" will always come with requires human intervention and be used incorrectly.
But what do I know I've only dealt directly with the regulations and the regulators maybe I should focus more on internet articles and YouTube videos 🤔
Actually watched his review the other day. Seems decent enough.
With respect, I don't think you're up to speed with the improvements FSD beta has had in the last few weeks. Please do yourself and myself a favour and watch a few minutes of it and report back here.
You also don't seem to appreciate that significantly better than human driving does not necessarily means "catching everything". And your theory of "sure put 100 different types of sensors out there so the best of them will tell you what to do" is a bit, how can I say this in the most diplomatic way, a bit optimistic? 😐️
I'm not saying lidar only other sensors are used as redundancy. I also find it hard to understand someone developing an AI robot is questioning computer hardware, and software ability to make complex decisions.
Comes across a little like this
Ì have to agree that cameras alone will not be good enough....not unless they utilise different frequencies, or if they can use filters to cut through snow, fog and heavy rain. Then perhaps we might have some game changing feature. Lidar isn't necessary and I can see how it would cause a lot of false feedback, leading to phantom breaking and sore necks.
I use Autopilot almost all the time when driving my M3. I love it, but it has a way to go before I would trust it enough to sit back and take my attention off the road.
This may be of interest
yes it's a new channel but he had the white Model 3 in his other channel before and i found those videos interesting.
Ahh here.. autonomous driving is an attempt to make things safer from the dangers of human driving. If I could have Lazer eyes I'd take them.
With modern day SW and processing multi sensory maps can be built. You need redundancy of sensors the logic can take the input of the most reliable Input and use another as backup.
Vision only will not work as vision won't catch everything in certain environmental conditions so don't appear on your vision map.
The key to autonomous driving is and will be lidar and that's getting cheaper and cheaper.
They remove things based on cost only, also looks like their vision bet will not work and regulators will never buy it either for fully Autonomous driving (at least until all cars on the road at fully autonomous). The biggest danger to autonomous cars will not be other autonomous it will always be clowns behind steering wheels using their "human super vision"
When Tesla says it won't be 'marketed', does that mean it will be another number of months after that before they begin installing it in their cars? Or would they begin installing it straight away? I wonder will it only be available on Performance spec initially until they have solid supply lines in place? I can't see it being included in a Feb/March delivered MIC.
email them with your order number. Tell them you want to cancel.
that's because the click baiters are waiting for the first bit of news and then all launch into the same postings, like the cloaked Model 3 last week, was everywhere on YT
True and you can say a lot of online content, but seems to be a bit of smoke here with it being reported through many sources
https://techcrunch.com/2022/12/07/tesla-appears-to-be-turning-back-to-radar-for-its-vehicles/amp/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmllLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMiqcHPibnBKUbldsijQpE4RKYLOR5lzAIx-xU4aqgtMsfJNEllpDEqjmQZ7c5ql0i9m2HLJjEKwdZlcV6dYd_oKFUjbW9prjaQ_PK-J79DKCzD8qNdWCwA5cW45RRVfPj46Hv6D5j3xCb6mzhReRf66lBLuD-vBkukwlCcaavms
How do you cancel an order?
