Forecast chat thread for this, hopefully, event
Ok I'll give it a go! It's a marginal situation, a lot of uncertainty and specifics would be a bit too unwise right now but lets get the ball rolling!
What is for sure...
Main points:
- Turning colder from the north
- Night time frost and icy patches
- Some wintry falls and some snow
- Could be beginning of longer period of much colder weather
Possible warning level - Snow - Yellow
From Tuesday night on turning notably colder with some wintry showers especially near windward coasts in the north and northwest and, at times, along Atlantic coasts and the southwest. Later, toward the weekend, the higher risk may extend to the east coast.
In terms of snow potential - over 200 meters is a good bet but to lower levels at times too with a more organised band of showers moving south some time Thursday night/Friday morning which could leave a couple of centimeters just about anywhere.
Mostly at low levels the showers will be a messy mix of rain/sleet/snow but inland spots always the better chance of seeing snowfall.
Temperatures:
From Wednesday onward daytime temperatures really struggle above freezing to around 2 or 3c max away from immediate windward coasts of the north/northwest/west/southwest but anywhere snow accumulates staying around freezing for daylight hours. On windward coasts 4 - 6c max.
Night time minima from Wednesday onward inland, particularly the southeast, down to -3 or -4c but that depends on cloud cover as well as there will be showers moving through at times. Between 0 and -2c will be the normal widespread night time minima.
Frost and ice will be slow to clear during daylight hours and in sheltered spots may see out the days in the second half of the week.
There is a lot of uncertainty because of the synoptic situation later next week when we will be near centers of low pressure from time to time making wind direction quite variable and this impacts depending on the direction. It will stay very cold throughout with wintry showers but for snow it's really narrow margins for the second half of the week for low elevations.
The big question right now is whether this is a blip or part of a much longer period of deeper cold weather maybe the following week. The synoptic situation is unusual and there every chance of sharper cold weather later on.
We need to wait and see how things unfold but I'll be updating the thread as things become clearer.
Apologies can't be more accurate just yet but it will be exciting watching it developing or crash all the same! 😀
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