If anything, bitcoin is further away from being used for payments than it was in 2017. It doesn't seem to have gained any traction. Which leaves "storing value", which makes no sense in a volatile asset, unless.... we expect it might increase in value and so really just end up with speculation being the main use case.
Market cap is the price of a coin multiplied by the number of coins. In my example I used the fully diluted value, based on the theoretical max of 21,000,000 BTC. Based on the current circulating supply (19.2m BTC, and the market cap of $317bn, we have the current value of approx $16,500 per coin.
By "capture" I mean BTC being used as a vehicle for storing value and making payments.
I'm curious about what is meant by the terms being used here. What does "capture" mean in regards to bitcoin? Because an asset's market value reaching 5% of a particular industry's worth does imply anything about capturing it. The actual money in Bitcoin is far smaller than its market cap, just like any other stock.
Do you mean 5% of that industry being replaced by crypto exchanges like Binance, or smart contracts or something? Because I don't see how that would be tied to the value of one bitcoin.
Can you be more specific?
It was $54k before, but largely driven by speculation. The speculation makes it a very volatile asset.
I just picked a conservative % of market capture to show how it could approach the previous all time high based on adoption, rather than speculation.
Bitcoin has had similar, and even more extensive, drawdowns than what it's now experiencing in previous bear markets. At those times people were having the same conversations about its demise.
We can compare with the DOW Jones if we cherry pick the time frame, but if we look at the range/volatlity it's not comparable. But again, that's largely a product of speculation.
The important question is whether adoption will continue to grow, and with the inherent speculation at present, price probably isn't the best metric/predictor of that.
What’s your view on dot, shiba and doge?
It's the absolute certainty with which you speak ...
In my book its a rational suggestion to work out how much % of the market it can capture and estimate from there.
The bottom line here is, in a year or 2, or maybe 3, investors will put money into crypto, they will gauge when to jump in and do so, they will also view the graph of the previous couple of years and look at the period around October, November, December 2022 and dream of entering the market at that point - this is where we are currently at, which kinda makes the crystal ball predictions somewhat irrelevant at this point.
Where's he making sense? It was worth $54k before.
The trend for the past 12 months has been down, down and down again.
Are the lads saying it will double in value, break $30k etc. making sense in your view?
These threads are littered with people who have been buying the dips all the way down.
Bitcoin has increased 48% in 5 years,not unlike the DOW Jones @44%.
Looking at the chart, I see no support until $10800
Stop making sense, there's people coming on here to gloat and you're ruining it for them
I wonder has a lot of the institutional money departed Crytpo in recent weeks. Whatever ones thoughts as to the value of BTC etc they don't seem the type of people who would risk huge sums of money. It appears that FTX was built on somewhat dubious grounds, are there more like that out there?
One approach people use to estimate future value is to look at the % of global assets it could capture. If you take the financial services industry alone, valued at around $23 trillion, if 5% were to be captured in BTC it would be worth around $54,761 per BTC.
To assess whether that's realistic or not would depend on more reading and research than you should expect someone to provide you on an internet forum. Trying to predict where price will be at a specific time is pointless, as we've learnt. It's more a question of the whether the technology will be adopted and, if so, at what rate.
We believe in almighty Satoshi,
Creator of crypto heaven on earth,
Of all that is seen and unseen
wishful thinking.
In other news, I have this bag of magic beans if anyone would like to buy. Guaranteed 6000% return on your money or I’ll stop answering your calls
"Probably ~30k", "likely to double in price"
But this analysis is based on what?
Seems Genesis spent the weekend looking for emergency funding but nothing was forthcoming. Would be huge if it entered bankruptcy.
Doubtful it will half. Probably ~30K end of 2023. Sets us up for a 2024/2025 Bull run.
Why is it likely to double in price?
It's just as likely to halve in price.
I'm not sure, but it's presumably because its price was over $65,000 last year and is likely to double (from current price) in the next year or two.
A few worrying moves in recent days
Alot of 20 to 40yr olds savings are close to bust now
Worrying time for many
Can you explain why I would value a bitcoin at $15.6k?
Holding off for a while yet. Looks like Genisis is gone to the wall now too so more falls incoming I'd say.
Coinbase is getting hammered too.
Getting closer and closer. I honestly see €500 happening. I’ll start accumulating under €800 though.
Bitcoin at $15.6k Anyone buying now?
A good synopsis of what happened at FTX.
The site it connects to is centralised, the keys stay on the wallet. The centralised site can go offline as ledger did due to too many users updating at the same time.
The risk is minding it yourself. Have you two locations that are separate that you store half the seed phrase (ideally four in case one is lost)? That’s one issue, also it’s cold storage so you don’t connect it to any site you transfer to and from it. I’ve seen people using them and connecting to sites to stake nfts. That’s a big no no. It supposed to be for cold storage.
Is it not just like a software update? I know with the Exodus wallet its very straightforward, only takes a couple of minutes.
What happens if I don't update? From what you are saying, the update sounds like it's some kind of collaborative effort between users.
I'll do my own research rather than hijacking the thread, but getting my crypto off the exchange has always appeared daunting or more risky than just leaving it on there.
Yes, exchanges charge there own fee on top of the Transaction fee for using the Bitcoin network.
You can send bitcoin for free to another bitcoin address, it just might take a bit longer.
If you want to store bitcoin long term to speculate on it then I recommend just using a paper wallet. Buy bitcoin, send it to the address on the paper wallet then Print it out and put it away safe. I done that years ago and still have them. The bitcoin I kept in a digital wallet I ended up selling or investing in alts. Long story short if I kept then on a paper wallet I'd still have them today
Yeah I meant in regards to moving it onto a hardware wallet. So you would just have slightly less every time you move it?
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