That's why any deal has to involve a cast-iron western-backed security guarantee that would effectively make it impossible, or at least ruinously costly, for Russia to invade again. Once Putin signals his willingness to accept such a guarantee, the Ukranians will know he is serious about a deal.
Don't be lazy. Go and look into this yourself, form an opinion and post here about it, then deal with the discussion. What you 'can't imagine' is irrelevant.
How is ukraines ecomony doing? Are they able to finance their own government spending or is the US & EU supporting them. I can't imagine the cost to rebuild the country.
This is the biggest threat.
Russia can bring Ukraine to its knees if it keeps targeting its energy infrastructure.
You can’t sustain a war without energy infrastructure.
What compromise? Why should Russia be rewarded at the expense of another country?
So you are saying that civil war will not break out in Russia. What do you think happened in Russia during the Yeltsin Gorbochov period with high food prices , a severe shortage of even basic food items , a requirement for a fairer ‘political ‘ system. You don’t think that the Russians Could rise up again - given a reason? . The number of body bags returning, the number of injured,the deepening effects of the sanctions might give rise to protests and we have loads of examples of where that might end
I'm guessing the extra flatbed cargo carriage of the front is for Mines etc? to take the blast before the main engine?
Good to see anyway the trains and transport is open
..
What’s the problem about who to expel. What The Irish Gov should do is to get the UR ambassador to explain the job description of each of his embassy staff , then get him. To establish the work each has actually done over the last year or two - this should include people met , meetings held events attended , places visited, etc. then decide on that the. Amount of overlap, does each individual ‘ prove ‘ that they were full time doing their official work , etc, etc. All of this can be then checked with the people allegedly met ,etc, etc, etc.
The gov can then decide who is not very busy and another staff member can do his work,; what does not stack up,;
what work is not necessary,; what work can be contracted out., eg repairs, transport, maintenance
then decide who is surplus to requirements
Ukraine tells allies it may not be able to recover from more Russian attacks on energy systems
The Ukrainian government is warning Western allies that it is anticipating increased Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure in the coming days and that Kyiv does not have enough replacement parts to bring heat and power back online if those occur, according to two congressional officials and one Western official briefed on U.S. intelligence.
The Russians have damaged or destroyed the substations, it's not like you can go down to the store and pickup a new 330KV transformer and the Russians are playing whack a mole, so when fixed, they can get destroyed again. Why are they doing it?
Nov. 18: Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine
One depot of artillery armament, delivered by western countries and prepared for being sent to troops, has been destroyed.
The redeployment of the reserve forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), and the delivery of foreign armament to operations areas have been frustrated.
The lack of energy is degrading Ukraine's railway network that brings weapons from the western side of the country to the eastern front. It makes redeployment of units from one front section to another very difficult and time consuming. It will give the Russian forces the advantage when they change the locus of their attacks from one corner of the front line to another.
Another knock-on effect of the strikes on the electricity systems and the blackouts in the big cities that follow them is a renewed stream of refugees that will want reach western Europe. It will over time change the public opinion and the political priorities of EU countries. If they fail to end the war they will have to carry the burden and we know from other discussion threads on housing that is a problem here in Ireland.
There may be a public perception that Ukraine is winning (e.g. Kherson) is seen by elements if the US administration as a good moment for pushing for negotiations in the knowledge that, Ukraine is not winning. The recent reaction to President Zelensky when the missile fell on Poland and killed civilians belies panic in the Ukrainian administration, they are desperate to pull NATO armies into direct combat with Russia. President Zelensky may ultimately find himself in the same position as South Vietnamese president Ngo Dinh Diem, if he overplays his hand with the US.
U.S. General Sees Little Chance Ukrainian Military Can Turn Recent Successes Into Broader Victory
A political solution involving a Russian withdrawal is still possible, he said, noting that Russia could end the fight now, but it won't.
Russia intends to "continue fighting into the winter as best as we can tell," Milley said.
While it seems obvious that President Putins' power as been weakened, it is not known who will replace him. History shows us the Russians will keep going until they cannot, before turning in on themselves and from a Russian perspective that is to be avoided, hence much of the population may believe it is better to have external aggression than internal strife.
Yes, like I said, I don't think Sinn Fein will deviate from EU Policy. I think Russia probably have an outdated view on them (Pre February 2022). Jerry, The Ra, Feck the Brits etc.
The first train since the start of the dictator Putin's fallacy of genocide in Ukraine arrives into Kherson from Kyiv.
Note the empty flat bed carriage on the front, just in case.
There's nothing sensitive in the clip above bar the people's faces at the train station.
Manpower without weapons? I'm not sure that you know much about either manpower or weapons...Thousands of dead and wounded Russians would disagree with you there, now on the other hand, where you have thousands of Russian conscripts with non or poorly functioning weapons or even basic protective gear. And in lots of cases, they do not even have commanders, or if they do, when the fighting starts, they depart and leave the men to fend for their selves. You are mistaking quantity for quality. Quality wins every time, and so far, Ukraine is winning had over fist.
What Russian territory exactly?
People are overlooking that any sort of a 'stalemate' solution with lots of compromises to the regime leaves Russia in a position to regroup and go on the attack again. They invaded Ukraine in February without warning or provocation and in breach of all international laws. With the same dictator and criminal regime in power, they would still pose a huge threat to their neighbours.
Exactly - the security guarantees in the Budapest agreement didn't amount to much did they?
It either has to be NATO membership or a bilateral treaty with US ratified by Congress.
Anything else means there is no guarantee peace will mean the end to bloodshed, it will just be a truce while Russia regroups.
SF were relatively pro-russia (voting against sanctions), but they've since wiped their press releases and changed to be vehemently pro-Ukraine. Unless they want a public lynching along the lines of mussolini to happen with their leadership, they'll likely remain that way (pro-Ukraine) if in power.
I do wonder how much thought russia is putting into the "ban" lists, given that being on them will be a badge of honour for most folks. If it's an attempt to divide, it doesn't work that well (unless Daly/Wallace are going to be the next Irish leaders :)
No, it's not, and that's an absurdly beyond tenuous attempt to deflect the thread.
I think full NATO membership ticks all the boxes in a clear unambiguous way that no other instrument can.
No reams of small print, just 4 words - "Don't F With Us"
I wonder if the Russian ban for Irish politicians is foreseeing the next election. All FG & FF with a snipper of Labour. They probably see a chance to reset relations with Ireland with a Sinn Fein government.
I personally don't think Sinn Fein will deviate much from EU policy. But it could be something we will be talking about a lot over the next 2.5 years, with accusations of Russian interference in the next general election.
Maybe this is for the Irish political thread but it is Russia related.
How about Russia withdraw troops from their illegal occupation of another sovereign state, and then Ukraine can join whatever they damn well please since they are a sovereign state.
Russia need to negotiate their re-entry into the civilized world, and with that there may be room to compromise.
Full NATO memembership for Ukraine is only likely if there is a dictation of terms to Russia rather than a true peace deal, as it would represent total capitulation and humiliation for Putin.
But
A genuine peace deal would have to involve a western-backed guarantee of Ukraine's future security that would give Ukraine most of the benefits of actual NATO membership.
Someone will be rearranging the furniture in their bunker any day now.
No room for Vladimir at any table it seems.
Nothing irritates a Narcissistic Madman more than being put on the ignore list. Putin will soon be using up the last of his toys and then what! will he turn to the drink and fancy smokes?
The path to end corruption in Ukraine began in 2013, with the Maidan protests and removal of the Russian stooge, Yanukovych. That broke the link with Russia and its lifelong endemic corruption. Given time, and EU membership, Ukraine will become less and less corrupt, but on the other hand Russia will only sink lower and lower into the cesspit of corruption it has manufactured all by itself under Putin. A successful independent Ukraine is what Putin feared more than anything else, and that's what caused him to invade Ukraine.
Very impressive for a country where conscripts have to buy their own equipment and are issued ancient rusty weapons that need a lot of work. Somhow I doubt they are spending anything on any such thing.
How about allowing Russia to keep Crimea, Russia give up Donbas & as compensation Ukraine join NATO?
NATO membership could be a serious bargaining chip.
Excellent post and a very accurate summary.
Ukrainian success is so close now that the withdrawal of Western support would be ridiculous.
Signals from exiled Russian journalists are now indicating that Putin is indeed being perceived as a loser and that "beneath the veneer" things are changing among his circle.
Is it wrong to execute collaborators and informers?
It was done here, one would want to be certain though.
I would consider it an important thing to do.
He's out of the loop, and in no position to count bodies, that's why he 'estimates' Ukrainians are in a position to physically count bodies, and according to this, they publish full lists of their losses and don't hide them from relatives or their populace. According to that, the losses are 1:5. If the general was counting civillian deaths as well, then that's a very different matter.
So your big boy pants solution for peace talks right now is that Russia will just walk away? What of Crimea? I thought you were delusional on the SF thread but this takes the biscuit.
But ok, peace talks where russia fully withdraws, how does one instigate that? You know, besides thoughts and prayers.
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