Russian troops to pull out of Kherson .......... hard to believe.
A huge turning point in the war if true.
Nah, it's been coming for a long time.
US recently gave Ukraine 40 armed boats, with those and what boats they already have they can cross the Dnieper at will to harass and hold down russian forces on the left bank.
Next big job, a drive to the coast of the sea of Azov.
Yeah. Putin set up the siege of the theatre in Moscow and the school in Chechnya - hundreds of deaths in each case. He used the Chechnya 'event' to abolish effective local Govt in Russia consolidating power in his own Presidency.
I wonder what The Ukr’s first step will be to ‘reboot the country - and especially’ those parts of the country that has been flattened.
so my opinions /thoughts o the matter
(1) getting the agriculture sector up and running would be of an immediate priority to provide food for the domestic market and for exports.
(2) mine sweeping another immediate priority - removed geographically and in a strategic way.
(3) creation of an emergency plan where the Gov has strict rules re areas that get priority attention, where critical supplies go, etc
(4) with so many Ukr displaced ,both within Ukr and gone overseas, is there a possibility that the bulk of them would agree to ‘repopulate’ those areas that have been levelled - otherwise Ru, in the very long term will # Start to ‘sneak’ in those little green men and when sufficient numbers are present AWAY WE GO AGAIN
(5) while the army ‘ has been stud down’ after the war it can be a very significant source of skilled labour and some useful equipment to help in reconstruction
(6) of course there are many other areas that will need urgent attention such as the areas of health, education, support for the elderly/disabled, etc.
in summary ,it is point 4 that intrigues me
Some week for the tankies, midterm failures and failure in Kherson 😃
I'd say there could be a big pull on builders and digger drivers from EU. Say like Australia
I wouldn't think they'd be getting the money their used to here or in oz
Have i missed something? Is the war over now? Just going from the last few posts is all, i havent gotten a news all day.
Over-confidence and underestimations across the board. A hallmark of corrupt authoritarian top-down systems. If the Russians were up against the 2014 Ukrainian military I have no doubt the country would have fully collapsed in a very short time. However the 2022 Ukr military was very different, they changed their Russian top down style leadership to a more decentralised "Western" military approach, modernised their forces, built up vast experience fighting the Russians in DNR and LNR for 8 years.
Even so, they were in dire straights with the sheer shock and awe of the Russian invasion on Feb 24th, it was a massive assault on so many levels. Personally I believe one of the key components, possibly THE key component for the Ukrainians was the fact that their leadership held strong and didn't flee. A lesser leader may have legged it, but Zelensky appears to have been deeply underestimated by the Russians.
I need ammunition, not a ride
Probably the most important words spoken in this conflict, defied the expectations
I've been following all of this on and off for a decade, I gave them like 96 hours before total collapse. I've never been so happy to be so wrong.
Same as that, it wasn't until day two or so when the predicted defections and collapses didn't occur I knew they meant to fight to win.
Yea zelensky was a true leader. When the moment came he stood up to the plate. Very brave considering the Russians were trying to kill him in the first two weeks.
he was also inspiritational in his earlier speeches which rallied the population and won western support.
Good thread on General Mark Milley, trump appointed Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, suffering from foot-in-mouth-itis again
The rebuild won't happen in our lifetimes.
IMO Ukraine will remain corrupt and Russia will remain a shithole as long as we are around to see it. Putins replacement will be as big a scumbag as he is.
The war will continue for decades in the same way the war in the North of Ireland continued for many decades after 1921, not officially, but there won't be peace either, certaintly not for East Ukraine.
Wars are essential for the US economy. Look at the amount of hardware that will be sold on the back of this most recent conflict to replenish stocks etc and for new NATO members that will need to buy f 35s etc.
The Ukrainian country has suffered so much over this war especially in the last 8 months but the war in the east has been raging for years.
Ideally some form of diplomatic solution would have been found early on but it was going to need the major players to act as mediators.
Gotta love it 😄
When the conflict ends massive amounts of money will flood into Russia from both the EU and the US. The country will be reconstructed in 10-15 years.
The independence elements in eastern Ukraine now have enough of Russia. Most pro Russian activists will flee the country. Russian adventurism will cease. It too will have to reconfigure. Its armed forces decimated, it military technology shown to be obsolete and about 40 years behind western innovation. Even smaller countries like Finland and Sweden have better military technology than the Russians. Finally you will have independence elements in Cechyna and other former Soviet republics start pushing for freedom as well.
How would a diplomatic solutions have been found. Putin open negotiating stance would be I taking Ukraine so f@@k off. If Obama or Trump had been in power it would have worked.
Do you not think that diplomacy was tried. Did Macron not go at the start to try to stop it. There was no appeasing Putin. At the start he would have wanted a land corridor along the Black Sea to the Balkans so he could continue to build his empire
This was a war that was going to have to be fought. If not Ukrainian then it would have been in Estonia/ Latvia and Lithuania.
Lads would want to wake up and smell the coffee.
Also the possibility of a lot of the displaced Ukr ‘looking “for a place to settle in again - making sure that the Ru do not come back with those ‘ little green men’ again
I don't see massive money flowing in to Russia post war , a lot of companies lost their shirts doing business there , and unless there's major change in how the country is run ,that will happen again ,
There are those still doing business there ,and that'll continue - but investing ?
An ideal scenario for Ukraine, would be militarily winning back their territory , and securing their borders , and negotiations with a new regieme that blames Putin for everything..
Territory would already be held , Ukraine would need finance and security , Russia would need sanctions lifted ,and to get back to exporting energy kleptoctracy ,
And a Marshall plan style investment in Ukraine ,with the money being dependant on dealing with corruption,reforms ect ,and the reconstruction kick starting economic development ...
All probably a bit idealistic.. but you gotta hope ..
Warren Buffet always says if you lost money somewhere always go back and have look at where you lost it. There is a good chance you will find it there again
By the time he had troops on the border it was too late.
Could a peacekeeping force have intervened in the existing conflict in the east years ago maybe.
Russia would always have used it veto at the UN to prevent that.
Next to impossible for peacekeepers to go in there. To large an area. Russia wouldn't have wanted them and I don't think any country would risk putting their soldiers in there
Maybe, any services company will happily go back , as there's minimal risk - it'll probably be a decade or twoa aaa before western companies decide to spend and invest in russia..
Although it'll be interesting to see if any post war settlement involves returning assets to multi-nationals or compensating them for canceled deals ..
Ukraine not hanging around, I hear they have conducted an amphibious landing on the Kimburn peninsula. Impressive and I hope it works out for them 🤞
(It may be more of a raid than anything)
https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1591493714064691202?s=20&t=6HC4ZUyyZ2QqMyp3iOWHTQ
When you have them on the run keep them running
Unlikely that they would try to that in any major scale. All this talk about allowing Russia keep Crimea will probably mean the supplies from the US will start to slow down soon. It's a pity so much of the Russian force in Kherson got back across to fight on.
The suggestion came as a surprise to me, I don't think it's an amphibious landing in the D-Day sense. But, who knows. What would be more credible is recon or harassing attacks. Ukr has plenty of small boats capable of transferring troops and light equipment.
Re Crimea, I think it's entirely in Ukr's gift to decide it's fate. I do not see them giving it up. The White House position is important and has been clarified. All Ukr needs is time, russia can't do diddly once Western support holds.
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