For the person who quoted me and suggested the the Russians were going to blow the dam.
That is not true, at least not right now.
This is Ukrainian shelling of retreating Russian forces.
As a professional, I will defer to your judgement.
From all the reports I am reading from both sides, I think this withdrawal is botched. While I think the Russians have been making preparations for weeks before this, I think the speed of the collapse has been faster than they've expected. I don't think 20k Russians, or anywhere remotely near that number are in danger of being trapped. But I do think they will need have some forces fight some sort of delaying action and become the sacrificial lambs. I don't see how every Russian can escape this debacle.
Before tonight, the most number of Russians I've seen captured at any given time has been 2 dozen, or so. If Ukraine is going to push the Russians hard like they seem to be doing, I think we could see some sort of new record tomorrow. If even 200 Russians were captured, that would be a tremendous embarrassment to Russia.
We will find out tomorrow just how bad it is.
I believe it was US policy since the 70s/80s that they were opposed to Europe getting its gas from russia
I wager the Ukrainians are bussing the Quislings off to some remote town where they can all collude together under a watchful eye.
The first people in liberated villages after the army are Ukrainian intelligence. They ask the locals who has been collaborated, or who might be suspicious. A strange Russian man simply cannot remain behind without attracting attention.
Ukrainian intelligence was an absolute cluster-fcuk pre-war. What happened in the south that allowed the Russians in was a disaster and aided by collaborators. They are not stupid though, the same mistake won't happen again.
FSB tend to only work well inside russia. outside not so much there no KGB. Smearing door handles with nerve agents is not exactly 007 stuff.
You would think the FSB and their likes would be able to stay behind and blend in as the withdrawal happens in Kherson for example.
Feed intelligence about the Ukrainians?
Or maybe not…
The Times is mostly for the 10-15 minutes clips from UK former brass, varying quality. A lot of British and American former military just have a nosey on Twitter for news and rephrase it for media interviews.
The Telegraph is more for catching up on what happend daily with a bit of analysis, handy if you just want a digest, the seek bar is your friend though.
Was he wrong about the Russians though? Out of the Allies, he was the one that was least keen on them and was privately telling people that their arrival in Europe in early 1945 was very bad news, even it meant defeating Hitler.
Quite the bind
In fairness, 4,000 men of 30th Brigade did pretty much that in Calais in 1940. They deliberately invited themselves to be surrounded in order that the 300,000 men at Dunkirk could be evacuated. Granted, the difference was that they were outright told by Churchill that they were not expected to be withdrawn, and that their only two outcomes were going to be death or surrender. Hindsight indicated that it may not have been necessary, but there was no way for either London, nor 30th Bde to know that at the time their stand was made.
I imagine something like this in the morning.
There's no way the downing of the Malaysian airline should have been taken as lightly as it was at the time. Innocent lives snuffed out, children falling 30,000ft from the sky. That one incident should have seen Russia sanctioned to death. But they were far more interested in cheap oil and gas than they were in their citizens lives.
Wonder if he's right.
The Telegraph and the Times daily podcasts on Youtube are actually well worth a listen for a daily update and analysis.
The Telegraph I haven't looked at so I'll check it out.
I gave up on the Times. Too much yapping and opinion, not enough actual info. They do have some good ones, especially when there's a General or someone on to speak as they pretty much get to the point, but mostly its lads trying to fill airtime which is just annoying to me.
My understanding is that it mostly feeds the water irrigation systems in Crimea, rather than civilian water supply
A few things I see wrong with that.
Firstly, the Ukrainians look like they are full steam ahead on going back to 2014 borders and this has been stated many, many times. They have no interest in anything else.
Second, NATO, the US etc will find it difficult to convince them to cede additional territory so whatever about settling at the pre-war lines, there is no way in hell Ukraine will allow Russia to gain a single acre from this invasion.
Third, given the level of consistent support the west has given, it will be difficult to just say to Ukraine "soz, you're on your own if you don't accept this" as there would be little to stop Ukraine publicizing this. Public support for Ukraine is still very, very high so this option would not fly with voters and would see western govts come under a lot of pressure.
Fourth, the west knows they have to bloody the nose of Russia in Ukraine otherwise Poland, Estonia, Finland, Latvia etc will be next. Russia can't be allowed to paint this as a victory in any way otherwise they'll be moving on to the next item on their shopping list.
Lastly, there is no gain for Ukraine in compromise and everything to gain for Russia. Russia wants 3 things
If Ukraine wants to join the EU or NATO then it must gain 100% control of its territory. Without that, it will never be able to control its own destiny
He was still going through the denial stage there. Has since reached acceptance 😅
The top 2 are quality. I never heard of the third one. Will check it out, thanks.
Away from the military side of things Vlad Vexler is very insightful on the Russian pysche. It helps that he's a Russian himself who moved to the west and is a philosopher:
Churchill! He was a racist who had little time for many races. He called the Indians a beastly race with a beastly religion. He directly ordered the slaughter of thousands of Bengalis. I don't believe the Irish were very high on his popular list either. All in all Churchill was a drunk who was fortunate to come out on the winning side.
I've given up on most of the youtube commentators who give updates on the war. About the only ones I watch now are:
Reporting from Ukraine - usually 5 min or less daily update. Very condensed, goes very much into the tactics and has very little waffle. Still a pro-Ukraine source but not overly so and will go into a lot of details on Ukraine losses and mistakes too without issue
Perun - An Aussie commentator, publishes a new vid once a week, Sundays, usually an hour long. Goes into insane detail on one topic a week, some Ukraine related, some not. Well worth a watch if you like doing deep dives into topics
William Spaniel - A guy with a background in game theory, probability and stats, he randomly publishes good vids delving into various aspects of the war, what likely results/outcomes might be, who the winners and losers will be and impacts of various strategies etc. Typically about 10-15 mins in length
So who else is good and worth watching?
This is the top story in the Telegraph this evening. And I’ve heard the exact same thing on two different radio stations today as I was diving across the country. A former British army intelligence officer on Times radio and an American military analyst on Radio 4
“The US is urging Ukraine to use a "window of opportunity" for peace talks to end the war, as world leaders prepare for a showdown with Vladimir Putin at next week’s G20 summit.
A top US general said a lull in fighting over winter might open the door to a negotiated settlement, as White House officials hold direct talks with the Kremlin.”
It does seem, from multiple sources, like the White House is in direct talks with the Kremlin right now. Wonder if we will see a withdrawal of Russian troops sooner rather than later now the nuclear bluff has failed
President Zelensky: 41 settlements were liberated in the South of Ukraine
There will be many jokes told about tonight's theatrics once he gets back to his proper job
Takes time to pack up the washing machine and all that. Especially while extremely hammered drunk.
Seems we in the west knew the condition and what was in the Stores. 🤣
Sholz went to China recently to further relationships with Xi. Many in the coalition were against the move while Macron wanted to go with him. Scholz declined the offer, Germany only really care about €€ and nothing else
Thanks
The claim of 10k Russians voluntarily sitting still and allowing themselves to be surrounded in Izyium was really dumb. Like a certain other claim that was made here a few days that I won't speak of.
I doubt at this moment there are still 20k Russians trapped. There was photographs of stolen boats/barges prepped for evacuation that were found by OSINT from a few days ago. We know the Russians have been evacuating troops from two weeks ago, they will have been leaving prior to the official announcement yesterday. The vast majority of Russians will certainly escape, but the situation based on reports tonight looks very bad. I can still see a scenario where maybe a few hundred Russians are forced to surrender. Nothing like that has happened before in a single day. It would be a massive win for Ukraine, and a huge embarrassment for Russia.
I'd say troops on the ground hadn't an inkling they were going to be used to shield their comrades retreating. Remember the reporting structures in the Russian army deliberately keep the grunts in the dark.
With telegraphing a retreat on TV most were probably hearing this "plan" for the first time. What were these guys going to do then though one they heard the news?
The heads no more care about saving their own. It was a face saving exercise for the home audience saying that they care about their soldiers' lives. Revealing this a plan early makes it seem less humiliating than what happened at Kharkiv. They'll simply deny the body count.
That's my take anyway.
Edit: To fix awful typos. Too excited.
Lol. This cnut is fairly angry.
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