It'll be down to geopolitics and The Money. Always follow the money. Neither Ukraine nor Russia are in good positions, though Russia is in a slightly better one.* They hold Ukrainian territory, especially Crimea and Donbas, the land bridge between them still up for grabs. China has told putin to cool his jets over nukes, the US has told him in no uncertain terms to cool the same jets and both will leverage him and Russia. Ukraine are reliant on Western help and they're getting it and even if things shift in the US the lend lease thing will still be in play. Even so there will be back channels looking for ways out of this. It's costing money, especially for the EU and Russia.
The US and the Chinese will be doing the best out of this. The US get to watch Russia and putin look like fools and for an absolute bargain price. Over the long term Ukraine will do well out of this horror too. The EU will move away from Russia and reliance on fossil fuels overall, which is good for Europe and the planet and will make money helping rebuild Ukraine for entry into the EU. Ukraine can't but improve radically now the beady eye is on them. Any more corruption shenanigans and support will dry up as quickly as it came.
Very early on in this thread I reckoned that Russia would keep the two main parts of Donbas and that Crimea is effectively off the table come negotiations and unless something radical happens like a collapse of Russian forces, or a mini coup in Russia, or the fear of a mini coup in Russia, I'd be still sticking by that.
*on the battlefield, fúcked elsewhere. This is Russia's last gasp of empire, their Suez Crisis of sorts. Europe has turned her back on her, NATO has grown, Ukraine will end up in the EU in time(though not NATO) and their "friends" in BRICS have seen them demoted, while the world has seen whatever image of "superpower" they had left is broken.
A deal like that won't happen and you can quote me on that. What will happen imo is Russia back to pre Feb borders and a guarantee of Crimea to be left in Russian control. It doesn't matter what Zelensky wants it's what Biden wants.
There will be no one happier than the clique here when a peace deal is hammered out, which Zelensky is happy with.
I have no problem with a peace agreement that involves Russia leaving all Ukrainian land, paying reparations and Ukrainian security being guaranteed which is what Zelensky wants and which Russia have refused to even countenance until now (and I assume will continue to refuse). I suspect they will only accept it when it becomes even clearer that they have lost on the battlefield.
If Ukraine gets everything they want why would they continue fighting?
Even judging by the young audience and few crippled soldiers at Solyov's (sp) deranged rant posted yesterday even the audience knew he was talking BS. The audience were for the most part dead behind the eyes. Whoever the message is for it's not for the educated, bright young things.
Thats because the Russians are losing and Ukraine is in a good position to negotiate back their occupied areas.
Only ones thats not going to be happy,Is Russia.
And i doubt Ukraine will give in to any Russian demands
Russian propaganda is not designed to "uncover the real truth" or convince someone that what Putin is doing is good. It has that effect on some stupid people, but most Russians do not believe the propaganda. But the Russian propaganda works very well in confusing and disuniting people. An average Russian does not believe anything -- they think that the Western propaganda is as bad as the Russian one; the war is bad, but there is nothing can be done; "I am against the war, but the majority wants it, I cannot be against it", it's better not to rock the boat -- that Putin is mad and will start throwing nucs about, etc.
It's more aimed at the populace beyond the major cities and the middle aged and up. A punch and judy show for the uninformed and the stupid. Masturbatory fantasies to make the thick feel better and rev up the rural types where many if not most of the conscripts are herded up. Russian Fox news in essence. Russian "elites" know it's utter bollocks. A goodly proportion of whom bought off a few UK politicos and huge gaffs and other investments.
But as a keen watcher of the Russian currents affairs shows, the propaganda feels like its splintering in all sorts of incoherent directions. But perhaps that's intended.
There must be more people over here watching those shows than Russians themselves at this stage!
It's a ridiculous and infantile notion but I'm guessing it all feeds into the notion that Russia, practicing restraint and mercy needs to take off the gloves and show the satanists the true measure of God's work. Or something like that. But as a keen watcher of the Russian currents affairs shows, the propaganda feels like its splintering in all sorts of incoherent directions. But perhaps that's intended.
Yeah, just lob a nuclear missile at an island that right between NATO member states, both of which have enough nuclear weapons to literally erase Russia from the map without even needing to consult anyone else, and in both cases they actually work, and have a policy of striking back immediately and with full force.
Not very clever. Are they on drugs?
I'd say it sounds like a General has plans to go into the cognac making business. That's his reirement and pension taken care of.
I think that he may be trying to give us the picture as to what life is like there now, more so than warning any of us to take shelter. For the people living there though, the alarms are terrifying.
The Secretary of the National Security Council of Ukraine says that the basic condition set by Zelensky for negotiations with Russia is to ensure the territorial integrity of Ukraine
Russian done deal or Russian Callan, Kilkenny car boot sale?
Rashimists disassemble and take to the rasha the cognac factory "Tavria" in Nova Kakhovka
All equipment and products are sent by trucks
That's some pecking order. The troops steal washing machines while generals knick entire factories.
So… you’re saying you don’t understand the concept of averages and once off incidents?
Okay, thanks for clarifying.
More than a thousand Starlink terminals in Ukraine shut down due to funding problems - CNN
Ukraine paid $2.5 thousand per month for each of them. The total cost by September increased to almost $20 million. According to the publication, the opportunity to pay for services has ended.
According to CNN, last month’s outage was a “huge problem” for Ukraine’s military. In March, the country purchased the 1,300 terminals from a British company. SpaceX reportedly charged Ukraine $2,500 per month to keep each unit operational. The country eventually couldn’t afford to pay the $3.25 million monthly bill anymore and asked for financial aid from the British Ministry of Defence. After some discussion, the two agreed to prioritize other military expenses.
Musk is a POS, going back on his word like that. Hopefully the US govt will do something. I really think the amount he's been charging is excessive.
I think he's just copying in event text from the LiveUAmaps feed.
When that feed features a bombing warning you'll get text advising you to take cover. I think that text itself has been translated over from a local warning.
That is not what he said. The daily death rate of Orcs is around 600-800 a day, of which 100 are mobiks, which is all your source was referring to.
Has the Russian spunk3 covid vaccine turned all those ruskeys into raving locos bordering zombies... talking zombies at that😎! eating brains kill kill kill and all that hat.
Actually the fallout would mostly hit London and the south east of the UK.
https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/
That is referring to the battles around Bakhmut and Pavlivka where there is documented evidence of extremely heavy fighting and casualties for the Russians. Dozens of videos and images exist as supporting evidence, it's all easily found on Twitter/Telegram.
The claim of the 500+ Russians killed in a day didn't take place there. It was supposed to have taken place in a tiny village called Makiivka in the Luhansk region. Unlike Bakhmut and Pavlivka, no media evidence exists to support the claim of such a fight. If it was true, you can be sure Ukraine would have published it. This is supposed to be the worst single incident for Russia since the sinking of the Moskva.
This is the last I will say on this matter.
Fair enough, but that is not really the point that Francie has been railing against. He is saying the report of "Out of 570 people, 29 managed to survive, 12 more were wounded, and the rest are all dead" is almost certainly not true, and he's right.
Even one to two hundred survivors (survivors meaning what? alive or uninjured?) would be a pretty horrific outcome and one that should be treated with a fair degree of caution.
I was referring to three or four hundred of the five seventy, sure maybe one hundred were paper soldiers, it's not like Russia hasn't a history of that, one to two hundred survivors seems to be the maximum reported.
The ratio of dead to injured to survived is not particularly believable. You often hear of units being "wiped out" when they have received ~50% casualties including injured. It rarely (if ever?) means '>90% of the unit are dead unless they were deliberately rounded up and slaughtered. We are not exactly talking about a force with the discipline to maintain some kind of "last stand" against overwhelming forces.
I am not doubting that there could have been carnage but the purported figures are just wildly out of kilter with anything you would reasonably expect.
I think the problem some had was in some of the articles the reported dead:injured ratio was 50:1. Now that might have been due to the wording of the report more than reality on the ground. But I've never heard of ratios like that.
Why isn't it a believable figure? Few hundred lads gathered in a forest, not spread out, poorly trained and equipped facing hardened troops and a bloody helicopter lobbing stuff at them would result in carnage.
Be that as it may, they are not wrong that the reported casualty rate in that particular unit is almost definitely wrong. Its just not a particularly plausible figure and I don't know why people are digging their heels in so much about that being pointed out.
I think you are flogging a dead horse here francie the truth may be somewhere in between, maybe three or four hundred casualties in that incident but there was a slaughter, poorly prepared soldiers bombed to bits, alot more than one hundred a day casualties at the moment, it's widely reported.
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