If the war ends Russia will lose Crimea. There will be a lot of angry Ukrainians there and it won't be a comfortable place for Russians. They will have to leave. It's like if we get a united Ireland - where will the unionists go? There'll be a lot of republicans up there doing dirty work on them.
I read a report that 500 mobilized convicts have been killed so far.
I'm not sure Crimea is as clear cut as you suggest. It is regarded by the entire international community as illegally occupied by the Russian fascist state. Very hard to imagine how it can move from that (especially after nine months of war in Ukraine) to anyone ever accepting it as legally part of Russia. The regime have hammered home the point this year with their war that the original occupation in 2014 was 100% illegal.
Article doesn't mention the US were negotiating with terrorists. The Taliban are not a terrorist organization in the eyes of the US.
Of course I can. It’s a crappy situation of Russias making.
So the playbook for all assho cuntries out there then becomes, invade neighbour, steal children, swap children back in return for occupied territory.
Can you envision any problems making that behaviour acceptable?
After the Ukrainian counter attacks we we're all wondering what was next. Now in hindsight we know. It was a massive Russian counter attack that's cost the lives of thousands for a few hundred metres of ground. They're throwing everything at Bakhmut and a few other settlements for some badly needed gains before winter. Could be another month or two before they let up for winter.
Talks are going to happen. It's just a question of when and what will be on the table when they do and there will be compromise.
IMHO unless something radically changes Crimea isn't on the table. Whatever about the feelings of people living in Crimea were before 2014, it's far more Russified now. Ukraine see Crimea as a "This is the extreme of what we want, but we'll settle for X". The two most easterly Donbas parts are likely to remain in Russian hands or part of a DMZ buffer. The land bridge between Donbas and Ukraine is IMHO the area of "wriggle room" and that will be settled militarily more than politically. If Ukraine can force the Russians back towards Donbas and Crimea they'll likely get that back. If the Russians can hold it, I doubt they will.
Again unless something radially changes Russia's fúcked. It couldn't take the country, couldn't force regime change, Odessa and beyond is firmly in the rear view mirror, and that's just in the war. Beyond the war Russia's badly wounded politically and economically, the EU, where the vast majority of their pipelines ran to, the stuff that earns them money, is turning away from them. The US gets to watch them look like the military giant they aren't and for a bargain basement price with no US soldiers dead. India and China balance both sides, but are only too happy to see a weakened Russia too. Russia was a mid level member of the BRICS, since Ukraine it's slid down. China, India and Brazil's economies are bigger.
You’ve more faith in what western sanctions can achieve than I
Just reading a report of a Battalion of Russian conscripts basically wiped out in a sustained attack by Ukraine forces.
I hope I never see any videos of the aftermath of this, it sounds like absolute carnage.
Here is an excerpt from a surviving soldier's report
"We were dumped into the forest and ordered to entrench; we had only three shovels for the battalion, and there was no support at all. We entrenched as best we could, and in the morning the [Ukrainian] attack started. [Ukrainian forces used] artillery, Grad MLRS, mortars and copters; we were just shot.
When it all started, the officers immediately ran away. In between the attacks, we tried to entrench, but the copters immediately spotted us and just shot us. Out of 570 people, 29 managed to survive, 12 more were wounded, and the rest are all dead".
The crazy thing is that the location they sent them to was the same location where a previous Battalion had suffered a similar fate.
I disagree, it's simply a matter of making the return of children and other Ukrainian citizens as a condition for the lifting of sanctions. They aren't getting their foreign reserves back as those will be needed for reparations.
If the US ever back out of supporting Ukraine - they are in the G7 right? - then their ability to exert foreign policy would be permanently wrecked. Trump was hopefully a one off, where you actually had a traitor as president. The US won't be able to repair another backsliding on commitments such as Trump did and would do if he's re-elected. In the case of Ukraine, this would be a third failure in a row, and it wouldn't go unnoticed.
The US managed to persuade Ukraine to give up nuclear weapons in return for a commitment to ensure it's security. When the call to do so came, their commitments turned out to be a lie, in the form of Biden ruling out putting US boots on the ground and not putting US troops in Ukraine prior ro the invasion - which he should have done.
The US has said it will support Ukraine, no matter what it takes. If the Republicans renege on that, well the next time the US tries it's hand at maintaining nuclear non-proliferation, they will be told to f*** off, and rightly so.
This is the G7 statement:
“We reiterate our unwavering commitment to continue providing the financial, humanitarian, defence, political, technical, and legal support Ukraine needs to alleviate the suffering of its people and to uphold its sovereignty and territorial integrity”
So breaking that would be strike 3. Since Trump currently defines the Republicans world view - that the US doesn't need to engage in global affairs, and should only be inward looking, those with an opposing view should be calling for Trump to be tried for sedition.
https://www.snopes.com/news/2022/06/22/trump-trial-capitol/
no, the WaPO isn't the official government paper. Where the heck did you get that from?
The USG has mechanisms to make announcements - like, announcements.
It's just another newspaper like the NY times, LA times, Wall Street Journal. There's freedom of the press in the US, freedom from the government running it (like the BBC or RTE.)
unfortunately its true, Russia lost the first Chechen war, went away changed tactics, came back reduced Grozny to rubble, killed all men of fighting age and won the second war
in my opinion, to have any chance of getting Ukranian children returned, reparations made, and security guarantees, there would need to be negotiations with territory on the table. Surely if Ukraine pushed Russia back to pre-2014 borders by purely military means over the next two or three years, then we’re done. There’d be no chance of getting Ukranian citizens back or holding Russia to any account. Russia would have no incentive to engage and we’d have a heavily militarised border on both sides.
Western sanctions wouldn’t achieve Russian engagement with respect to Ukraine’s recovery efforts, as I think China and many other countries would see the whole thing as over at that point and normalise relations with Russia.
I am sure that the next year will show what form negotiations will take. If Russia digs and it’s a stalemate then it’ll be very different conversation to that which would take place if Ukraine is still making good advances.
And the war crimes committed by Putin's marauders? And the Ukrainian citizens abducted by Russia? And the cost of the infrastructure and lives destroyed by Russia? And the fact that Russia doesn't keep any agreement it make and will be back to invade again once they have managed round up another conscripted mob. Pride? Are you insane?
Russians are not happy about a botched assault on well entrenched Ukrainian positions in Vuhledar that ended with high casualties.
Seems we are in a stalemate at the moment. Both sides are dug in and any attack will result in high casualties.
Jesus Christ man, Zelensky’s Pride has practically nothing to do with the reasons for not giving into Russian demands or conditions for withdrawal. They invaded a sovereign nation of the pretext of a thinly veiled fiction, murdered and raped civilians with abandon, and proceed to collectively punish the nation for having the cheek of wanting to remain free of them.
Zenensky is but one of many Ukrainians who would tell you were to go with the idea of giving parts of their country or people to the Russians after what they have done.
G20 meeting is on in Bali Tuesday and Wednesday week. There is probably going to be some meetings between Russian and US delegations. Biden and Putin may meet as well
Negotiations are always inevitable. What course they take is anyone's guess. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they have being taken place for a while now through the back channels. I'd like to see Russia accept pre February borders as soon as possible so the killing can stop asap. Both Putin and Zelensky will have to swallow their pride to make it work.
Why would the US care about marches in Italy? Is the war really hurting the Democrats election prospects? What exactly would the US get out of winding down the war?
Righttttt.....
Much earlier than that imo. The Washington post is the official paper for the Democratic government in the US. When they announce that the government want peace talks, peace talks there will be. I note that the Telegraph has repeated the message so obviously the main supporters of Ukraine are preparing the groundwork for negotiations. Governments have recognised that support for the war is declining, as evident in recent polls, major March in Italy against it etc, and responding accordingly.
Right so if this is 'Really good news', give us an idea of what terms would be acceptable all round, in your humble opinion.
In my humble opinion, terms would be at least 1) complete withdrawal by Russia to pre 2014 borders 2) reparations as agreed and commensurate with rebuilding all the infrastructure and housing they've destroyed 3) handing over of all Russian citizens wanted for trial of war crimes and 4) that Ukraine may continue with it's application to join the EU.
So what's your suggestion, seeing as you seem to have views on this war.
Belgorod is on fire
Talks are inevitable. It’s just a matter of time, and if we are in this position coming into autumn next year, they will absolutely happen
When did the Italians call for talks?
When did the US give a **** about paying lip service to Italy?
There's elections in the US, that's what they're paying lip service to.
I heard of one suggestion that nuclear bombs could be used to blast out water-ways across America...duh...
Particularly good against Super-Mutant Behemoths - as long as you're not too close. The alternative history of the Fallout games has it that the U.S. went fully nuclear after WW2: nuclear cars, motorbikes, even computers IIRC. Shoot up a car and it will eventually explode in a mini mushroom cloud, which is said so be unrealistic because of scale, but still fun to do.
The triggers are just one component with a shelf life, the other "mundane" electronics degrade quickly in a nuclear weapon. That hard radiation plays havoc with electronics. Then the conventional though fancy explosives that drive the nuclear reaction degrade within years too. The Americans spend billions per year maintaining their arsenal. They're very expensive weapons. One of the reasons for treaties for reducing nuclear arms on all sides was the pretty basic factor of the costs involved.
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://we.vanillicon.com/v2/e050b53be62f0ae2404c620976170938.svg)
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://w0.vanillicon.com/v2/07abd39dc4f0afde3c391afc78cc920e.svg)
