Background
In the last 10 years we've lost away to South Africa 4 times and lost at home twice.
We have won away once and won at home 5 times, indicating a general level of competitiveness against the Saffers for longer than we've been a top tier team in World rugby. Our last game against South Africa was the 2017 dismantling at home where we won 38 - 3 (match posted below).
South Africa are on a decent run of form having won 3 in a row against Argentina and Australia. Prior to that they had shipped a loss to Australia and a loss to NZ (having beaten NZ once following the Summer tours).
The Wales tour to South Africa was a poor period for them. I don't particularly rate Wales but the Saffer's struggled to deal with them giving Wales a rare away win.
Ireland have a tour win in New Zealand under our belts, and a good six nations losing only to France.
Teams
Prediction
The importance of this fixture given the shared World Cup pool between South Africa and Ireland shouldn't be discounted. This is a stare down.
South Africa look a slightly stronger team on paper, are on form and have a run of fixtures coming into todays game. I think their game plan is easier to implement or should I say impose and I expect them to be 100% on it today.
From an Irish perspective I'm worried about our back 5 and whether we can weather that South African pack for 50 minutes and that impressive bench in the closing 30.
I'm concerned about the breakdown generally, but more so with the lack of zip at 9 that has been central to our success the last year.
I think Murray's inclusion is a nod to the success of Wales aerial game against South Africa - much to the chagrin of some I think we'll see a lot of kicking from Ireland. Again - the lack of game time from the likes of Keenan puts this into gamble territory if it proves true.
I think South Africa have the advantage coming into the game, but I can't shake the feeling Ireland will have enough for them today and might even make a show of it.
2017 Game.