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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2022 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Gonzo

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally long range +T120 onward for Autumn 2022.

If your post does not specifically relate to a Fantasy Island chart (extended long range charts) then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved or deleted.

Thanks

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Summer 2022 is over and what a cracking summer it was weatherwise with plenty of warm or hot and very dry conditions for much of July and August. It appears we are kicking autumn off on a very unsettled and autumnal note with a very unsettled first week to September but what about the second week?

We start off on 7th September with an area of low pressure that will be circulating around Ireland from September 1st, it may last a little bit beyond this point.

In the very extended range the GFS 12z wants to bring back high pressure and settle things down once again after possibly a very wet period of weather.

The GFS 12z keeps this high over us for about 5 to 6 days, it's not a warm ridge, just average temperatures with this one but if there is enough sunshine and cloud doesnt become a problem then it could feel fairly warm and very pleasant.

We finish up with signs of this ridge breaking down with Atlantic fronts heading towards Ireland.

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Elmer Blooker

Too good to be true so extremely unlikely ... but if it did happen what kind of temperature would we be looking at?

Surely the Nov record of 20.1c (Kerry 1-11-2015) could be beaten?

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119782064#Comment_119782064

I was down in Kerry that weekend and it truly was remarkable how nice it was for November 😁

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119782064#Comment_119782064

The ECM and GFS have flirted with the idea of giving us some extreme warmth for the end of October/beginning of November but these are mostly outliers. Some of these runs gives Ireland a possibility of reaching 18 or 19C around the start of November and about 25C for the south of England. Very unlikely to verify tho.

Sammy2012

@Gonzo any idea what next Sundays weather will bring? Running the marathon in Dublin so hoping for some reasonable conditions

konman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119782908#Comment_119782908

If you are on twitter check out Carlow weather, run by a boardsie. He`s running it too and will be doing forecasts for it.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119782908#Comment_119782908

Next Sunday is currently looking very warm indeed for the time of year where 17 to 19C is possible if there is decent spells of sunshine. However this plume of warm air is likely to get swept eastwards very quickly with an approaching deep area of low pressure to our west.

We are too far out from next Sunday to establish when this area of low pressure with all it's rain will sweep across Ireland, could be a dry and warm day but it could also be cooler and wet if the models bring this area of low pressure in sooner. Will have to wait a few days.

Meteorite58

Mod Note: Puusy_Hands New, drop it, you have received a warning.

Danno

A final blast of Autumnal warmth this Friday and Saturday before the Atlantic changes the angle of attack next week. It seems the mild south-southwesterlies which have given us a milder and wetter Autumn for alot of the season are about to be replaced by more west to northwest airflows next week looking at recent GFS outputs.

A little after mid-month we could see something more of a game changer as the jet stream looks like nose-diving into the Med as per the chart below for November 20th. A nice development for those who prefer colder weather in November:

Hopefully, this is the trend to a different weather pattern in the medium term.

almostthere12

What could a change in pattern lead to, well the below is from the GFS 6z, the new parallel run backs it up to a degree as well. However, of course it is way out in FI and the GFS has been all over the place after 7 days as have all the other models recently.

PokeHerKing

Id have said the GFS has been fairly consistently modelling a scandi high for the middle of the month?

Seems to be firming up now and the continent are going to cool right down.

Hopefully we can tap into some of it towards the end of month 🙏

Meteorite58

Holding the wet and blustery look for next week and temperatures in general falling back to more normal. Models differ greatly in how active it will get and timing from very windy /stormy to just gales and some active blustery frontal passages. Rainfall totals keeping that look we have seen now for a number of weeks with Atlantic coastal counties leading the way with accumulations and far less towards the East.

Meteorite58

The cooling trend looks to be holding in the main models, Atlantic still producing plenty of LP's and frontal activity with accompanying rainfall. Temps look like around 8 to 10C by day in general bit more around the coasts and when fronts are initially going through, much cooler nights in low single digits, could even see frost perhaps .

Meteorite58

Very high rainfall totals from the GFS 06Z this morning, holding a cooler theme, ECM not as cool and not as wet, the GFS is usually the more conservative rainfall predicter, will see what comes out tonight.

Gonzo

The GFS 12z is even wetter than the 6z which Meteroite posted above. Some very high possible rainfall totals over the coming 10 days particularly across western and northern as well as central areas.

It will also turn much cooler from tomorrow and while temperatures will be close to normal for the rest of the month, we will feel the chill after an exceptionally mild to warm first half to November.

The GFS 12z also has some potentially stormy weather brewing deep in FI.

No shortage of rainfall, wind and generally mild/average temperatures to come over the next 2 weeks. While mild, these temperatures combined with all the unsettled conditions will make it feel much cooler than what we've been used to over the past 5 months.

Meteorite58

ECM more seasonal temperatures with a few warm sectors going through fairly quickly, showing some very cold nights at the end of the run . GFS and ECM showing an active Atlantic will see if any system has the potential to become stormy.

pauldry

Rest of November looks cool and unsettled with some cold nights. However may get mild again for the last week. The next week will be at or below normal temperature wise and above rainfall wise.

Darwin

Early days yet, but some models are showing very significant amounts of rainfall for parts of the country next Monday/Tuesday (60mm plus). Looks like an area of low pressure sliding by the south coast is responsible. Hoping that disappears on the next run.

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119877571#Comment_119877571

50mm+ in parts of the W & SW on the latest GFS run.

[Deleted User]

Latest 850 temps as indicated by the 6Z GFS Ensembles. Nothing to get too excited about it seems.

pauldry

Looking at the GFS model for the next 384 there seems to be a pattern change taking place. Blocking could become dominant and low risk of some cold from the North. I think it will be 2023 before we see any 17.6c again.

bazlers

You do realise December 25th is going to be 17.6 degress now! ; )

Hooter23

The cold will probably arrive in december since we did not get much cold in october or november like we usually do...so its more likely to arrive now in winter this time and when it does it will be very cold and not like our usual cold snaps with slush and sleet..it should be proper cold

odyboody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119889734#Comment_119889734

Good on you hooter.

The power of positive thinking

Meteorite58

Models showing potential for strong winds at times towards the end of next week as deep LP's move close to us, more so from the GFS, plenty of rainfall accumulations also especially in the Western half due to weather coming in off the Atlantic. Sketchy charts with a lot of change coming as colder airs get into the mix . No big cold outbreak to be seen as yet but there will be cooler interludes with a few cold nights but still a lot of mixing going on as the Atlantic remains mobile I reckon.

Hooter23

We had very warm air over us only a couple of weeks ago and through much of october/november and when this warm air travels up further north this time of year it triggers much colder air to come down from the north many weeks later to some places...they had record cold in much of america only a couple of weeks ago...could be a sign of things to come

Danno

Last night's 00z GFS run throws up this:

Quite a cool arctic blast in those 850s

But what really catches my eye is the main bulk of the jet is diving for Morocco coming out of the USA and Canada with an isolated and separated but potent arm coming south from Greenland and Iceland. This could whip up a few polar lows if the setup holds for any decent stretch of time. Plenty of high pressure to our west to keep the flow going.

almostthere12

Wasn't sure where to put this but looking to view historical GFS and ECM charts, where is the best place to do this?

I have tried on meteociel but the image never shows even though I have no problem viewing current charts.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119902818#Comment_119902818

Hope this is what you're after: Reanalysis archives (wetterzentrale.de)

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119902818#Comment_119902818

That's because all the data was wiped in a server fire back in Strasbourg in March 2021. We haven't been able to see pre-March 2021 on Meteociel since it. That is assuming you are referring to past runs of the models named, rather than reanalysed daily charts that Danno gave the link above for.

https://www.theregister.com/2021/03/10/ovh_strasbourg_fire/

almostthere12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119904676#Comment_119904676

That's great, thanks for that Danno