Georgia, Crimea, Syria etc. and a few other similar "Victories" that went unchallenged in any meaning full way, lulled Putin into a false sense of security, plus he was unaware of the real state of his military. For a crook, he really was blind to how much his fellow crooks were effectively robbing from him (as head of state) of cash meant to update and modernize the military. But NATO were just the excuse, the real reason for the invasion was the mineral oil/gas wealth that is in Ukraine. That was what he really wanted. Now come hell or high water, he has to be stopped, and any Country helping him needs stopping too. One thing is for sure though, for one man, he is causing a world (literally) of trouble. And the World needs to develop new strategies to handle any future outbreaks like this.
I did answer the Q, they can definitely push them out back to 2014 levels.
The Ukrainian army was a very different fighting force then. Nothing compared to the training and beast it has become today. Russia on the other hand has been shown to be weak.
There is a smell of death of the Russians and everyone knows it. Even the CIS are beginning to challenge the Moscow regime. Putins new empire plans may have started the fall of Russia.
Same difference. Might as well be Russia.
The people not seeing an invasion coming in Jan/Feb were those who didn't want to see.
Putin's also been in Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Uzbekistan since June. Of course, what they all have in common is that they're all authoritarian regimes that are allied with Russia, and they're all in close physical proximity to Russia. And all but Iran are former Soviet countries, and those 4 are either members or "associated countries" of the CIS. He doesn't have the greatest choices of holiday destinations at present.
France isn't much better than Germany, in the current scheme of things
But that is what Putin has been saying, anyway. One of the reasonings given for invading Ukraine was as a response to NATO expansionism. Putin has already been blaming the West for starting the war, and Putin then claims only to be protecting Russia by preventing Ukraine's joining NATO.
I'd argue that the only reason that NATO did not give a firmer ultimatum in February was because of war fatigue in NATO countries, especially in the USA, plus the energy concerns of EU countries. Putin correctly calculated that his invasion would not be met with direct resistance from NATO, but it remains the blind spot of blind spots that he didn't calculate the amount of military support the country would receive.
Germany is afraid of its own power, France is a powerhouse though
Can you link to the image and flag what it is? I'd rather not see an image like that thanks
He was in Kazakhstan recently. Conference. Erdogan was there too.
You didn't answer the question though. Confident of total expulsion? To pre 2014 levels even?
Because he hasn't left Russia in months (that we know about)
Eh, do you think someone can just walk into Moscow and arrest him? And he hasn’t been flying over international waters of late.
Who makes the rules that a leader can't face justice for crimes? Why isn't Putin arrested on sight and brought to justice, why isn't he taken out while in the air over international waters, like every other terrorist
Russia is loosing all of its modern tech offensive weaponry. They are literally fighting with North Korean stuff and Iranian drones. Russia is beat and she knows it. The more desperate she gets, probably the more outrageous the assaults on civilians will be.
Meanwhile Ukraine has the backing for EU, USA, Japan, NATO, etc. Fresh weapons, fresh supplies, best of intelligence. They will be able to keep pushing Russia out.
Not an inch given to Russia or Putin will claim victory, rebuild and try again a few years down the road.
As many years as Russia can endure sanctions which is not many. At any rate, all the west has to do is keep up supplying arms and they can destroy stuff faster than the Russians can resupply.
World War 2 actually marked the end of the British empire. It was a hugely costly war and their economy and cities were in bad shape for many years afterwards. The empire really started to fall apart after 1945.
You honestly think Ukraine can push Russia out of all their territory including the annexed regions? I cannot see it. How many years will that take?
Ukraine should respond with more military victories against military targets. Its the only way to defeat Russia.
This way they get to flood the Ukrainians, but leave the dam intact to supply Crimea at a later point. If they blow the dam, the last option disappears.
So much for Germany being a military powerhouse in Europe. Looks like Poland will take that role now
Paranoia getting the better of them.
Yeah it's interesting. Right now Kherson city is full of Russian soldiers. It seems that the Russians are actually worried that the UA will blow the dam so that the water will wash them away or something - which is why they are dumping water in a controlled manner. The thing is that would be utterly reckless by the Ukrainians and terrible for them in the long-run since they'd be taking over a ruined city and have a ruined dam and potential issues with the nuclear power plant and all of the other negatives.
It's almost as if the Russians are afraid that the Ukrainians would do what the Russians would do in this scenario if the roles were reversed.
The Russian army reminds me more and more of the German army in the final phase of WWII. Deploying untrained soldiers, expanding useless distribution lines, and destroying vital infrastructure to harm the enemy.
Odd that apparently the Russians are now draining water from the reservoir, but that water still has to go somewhere?
Perhaps saving face to pretend they care?
It's becoming a dirty war from Russia, targeting non military targets, Ukraine should respond in kind, with several more bridge attacks, level that Crimea bridge , they're paying the price for the attack anyway, so go finish it off
I understand what you mean - it's certainly a net negative for both countries on paper. However, if Ukraine somehow manages to evict the Russian army from its territory, regain its pre-2014 borders and ensure its future security then that'd have to count as a win - even if their infrastructure is levelled in the process and they lose a lot of their people.
A lot of countries have their modern identities forged in existential wars. The Americans have the War of Independence. The Irish have the 1916 Rising and the War of Independence. The UK and Russia have World War II. If Ukraine can successfully repel the Russians then this will likely forge the identity of Ukraine for generations.
In contrast, I cannot see how Russia gains from this, regardless of what happens on the battlefield.
Well they're doing a pretty good at driving them back one day at a time.
Russia is desperate, running low on everything its military needs. It's economy in ruins and its people, pariahs of the world.
There will be a winner. And it will be the Ukrainians.
There will be no winners in this war. That's clear.
I am trying to guess the endgame for this war. An endgame that doesn't go on for years. I do think Ukraine should consider peace negotiation when they are on the front foot. I cannot see them ever completely driving Russia out of their sovereign territory. Peace negotiations will come at some point but timing is everything. Ideally before a cold winter of suffering due to lack of utilities.
Do you think it's one way only?
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