It's all falling apart alarmingly fast for Boris Johnson across the water. How long you reckon he has left as British Prime Minister? Hours surely?
How many parties are they talking about now? I've lost count.
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As the day has worn on I've come around to the idea of Boris returning. It will absolutely kill the Tories. I can't imagine anything better, well, Braverman would be even better in that regard. But alas, second best will do.
Obviously it's a gamble but the case Team Boris are making is that everything goes for him, and he's been a 'lucky general' all his career, and he rediscovers some of his old magic he could get them back somewhere in the vicinty of Labour. Whereas the best they could hope for with a dull boy like Sunak is a 'respectable defeat'...
There is no point in wanting the Tories to pick the best candidate, I hope they will pick the worst as it will only do them harm. They have no good options, but their worst option is better in the long run.
His supposed "charisma" is a very strange one. When you hear the word charisma, you think of the likes of JFK, Barack Obama, Nelson Mandela, the late Queen, Richard Branson and so on - Johnson seems to be a boorish crank in comparison, spouting meaningless slogans and soundbites, a bit shifty and evasive, not particularly good with people etc.
Ya but team Boris are morons and freaks like Dorris, Fabricant and Mogg.
As a Labour voter I would be much more worried about 2 years of boring relative stability under Sunak.
True Sunak lost to Truss but everything he said about her policies has proved accurate.
He is in a great position to say I told you so, so let me govern now
He really is the only credible candidate for me.
I think the 'lucky general' notion is just nonsense. Boris Johnson is now a toxic entity to majority of voters, he's been found out...and that's not going to change.
I think you may have a misplaced faith in the british voters. Sunak, being non white and a snob and Mordaunt, being female and having to follow two terrible female prime ministers are not ideal candidates and Ben Wallace is right the public never voted out BJ so he, in theory, has a mandate from the public to be PM.
...and I think you have a misplaced belief in the abilities of Boris Johnson.
My only belief in Boris is that he could beat sunak or Mordaunt. I dont think he was a good PM or be a good future one but the british public seem to lap up all his BS.
Very interesting market drift since that fleeting moment at lunchtime when Johnson was favourite. Can get all the 2/1 now you want, and if you shop around 9/4 and 5/2 seem available. The Johnson momentum doesn't really seem to have slowed with a few more minor Cabinet endorsements, and the block ERG vote should get him to the required 100.
So perhaps there is some deal being done in the background? Making a huge leap here but Sunak (PM), Hunt (CX), Mordaunt (HS), Johnson (Foreign Sec) might be acceptable to everyone?
I cant believe it but Boris has a real chance,he wont concede to Sunak no matter how far he is behind once he gets over the 100 votes and he would be favourite to win with the Tory members.If I was him I would let Sunak take it as it wont be pretty for the next few years,he really does see himself a Churchill like figure who can have a few goes unlike the mere mortals that accept one rejection as final.
Latest numbers:
It looks like Sunak will reach the threshold pretty soon. Once that happens things get interesting. Consider the following:
Based on that logic, I expect Mordaunt's numbers to begin to climb rapidly once Sunak passes the 100 threshold.
His is only going to beat Sunak or Mordaunt if it goes to the Conservative Party membership. That membership is in no way representative of the electorate as a whole. Let's not forget, they are the ones who chose Liz Truss.
I never felt he had "charisma" but he certainly has a "presence", very hard to explain but he's one of those people who just commands attention when he's in a room simply by a being there 🤷♂️
If they were the only people backing him he wouldn't have a prayer. He's clearly appealing to a wider section of the party and I'm trying to tease out why.
Can't see Bojo being interested in a deal; it's PM or nothing for him...
Odd looking freaks will often command attention. But it doesn't mean that they have any kind of "charisma", which implies an affable charm. Johnson has all the charm of a snake.
Latest polling gives labour a 37 point lead, another one by GBNews has it at 39.
Go on Tories, do the stupid thing. Be another leadership election before the year is out
There's talk that the 'runner up' might be expected to gracefully bow out of the contest on Monday and let the 'winner' of the first round of votes be declared leader of the party. But would this be acceptable to Johnson and his supporters, or does he fancy being PM again no matter how he wins the election or who he upsets?
There is exactly zero chance that Johnson would step aside if he gets over the 100 threshold.
All he cares about now is getting back to no. 10
(a) he wants to get back at those ingrate MPs who stabbed him in the back
(b) as a died-in-the-wool optimist and egomaniac, he believes he'll be able to rediscover his magic touch with the wider electorate in time for the next GE
Well it’s been proven time and time again that a week is a long time in politics. Two years is an eternity. Two years ago , who foresaw Putins war? The Tories might be in a completely different place in two years time , if they make it that far that is. But that’s their plan now , avoid a general election at all costs.
Indeed if he gets 100 that's the ball game, there is no doubt that in a run off membership election they will vote for boris over anyone else
Putin's war was going on since 2014
If the MPs indicative vote of the final two was something extreme like 230 Sunak, 127 Johnson - would that be something which would sway the members?
This indicative vote is an interesting extra step which wasn't part of the previous contest.
The Boris fanboys among the membership couldn't give a hoot what way the MPs vote. They just want their hero back as PM.
It's one thing him thinking that, projecting that on to the wider electorate is a bit of stretch. A Boris Johnson premiership is a known quantity, his first attempt ended disastrously. There is no reason to believe that a second attempt will end any differently.
'Best' is subjective. The best candidate for destroying the Tories is Braverman. Boris is second best.
Should we offer Britain counselling?
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