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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭greenpilot


    An FYI,

    A number of drones ( Iranian-built) took off from both Belarus and Crimea a few hours ago, and entered Ukranian airspace.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,066 ✭✭✭rogber


    Surprisingly, at the moment, German news outlets like Spiegel aren't emphasising the consulate hit, it's all very general reporting.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,390 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Russian missiles are not known for their floor by floor pinpoint accuracy. They hit the building, which is the message they want to send.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,917 ✭✭✭GM228


    Even if a direct attack on the embassy it's not an attack on Germany, few people may realise under the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations 1961 that despite the various immunities and privileges that an embassy is still sovereign territory of what is known as the "receiving state" (Ukraine), not the "sending state" (Germany) under international law.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,137 ✭✭✭✭josip


    First attack by a sovereign state they weren't already at war with?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,274 ✭✭✭EOQRTL


    Yeah Lukashenko is in a bit of a lose lose situation. Wade in and and he'll lose, sit back and do nothing and god knows what the botox dwarf will do. Couldn't happen to a nicer chap in fairness 🤣



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,274 ✭✭✭EOQRTL


    No it looks like the building has been hit but not the actual consulate thankfully. Still and attack by Russia on a NATO members consulate no matter how much mental gymnastics some may perform.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,010 ✭✭✭Beta Ray Bill


    I think it's very unlikely Belarus will get involved. Mr Lukashenko has enough problems internally without adding a War to the list

    And even at that, their army which only number 60k personal (probably half of which are soldiers) would no offer a huge boost to the Russia

    They are likely to be poorly trained and ill equipped (even more so than Russian troops)

    Ukraine have been told not to attack Russian Cities/Infrastructure by the West who have supplied the weapons, but I don't think they'd mind them attacking Belarussian Cities and Infra. There is very little to gain and so much to lose. Russia is trying to hang on to Kherson at all costs, as if it falls, the water to Crimea will be turned off again. Expanding the war to other countries (Belarus, Poland, etc) will make things worse.

    I'd say it will be less than two week before Ukraine retakes Kherson the way things are going. Depending on how that battle goes, Russia could effectively been defeated in all it's strategic goals.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,137 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Be that as it may,

    "International rules designate an attack on an embassy as an attack on the country it represents".

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diplomatic_mission



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,100 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Possibly. Good question. Even so, it's likely that NATO would assess damage to the consulate to be accidental. There was a lot of chatter at the start of this invasion about what exactly would trigger A5 and the consensus seemed to be that a Russian missile overshooting Lviv and landing 2KM inside the Polish border probably wouldn't trigger WW3.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,337 ✭✭✭✭Boggles




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 146 ✭✭Wes M.


    Not an attack on Germany, but surely it was intended as a message (presumably, the Kremlin knew the German embassy was once working out of that building and the missile was on target) to the Germans that their support for Ukraine has not gone unnoticed. The Kremlin seems drunk on its own firepower this morning, as if its back to winning ways...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,395 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    There was certainly an impression at the start of this invasion that Poland was taking a long hard cold look at intervention. If Belarus military joined Russian forces in attack, Poland might just decide that's enough and enter the war independently of NATO? Lukashenko would have to be aware of this, long border with Poland to the West.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,438 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    How decent is the Polish military?

    Probably better that NATO maintains a unified stance here, imo.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,274 ✭✭✭EOQRTL


    Looks like a pure sign of desperation to me. They could bomb Kyiv ever day for the next year in the same manner and it won't take them a step closer to victory. Unfortunately in the meantime as in Syria where they resorted to the same tactic the civilian population get minced in the process.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,457 ✭✭✭✭gandalf


    If the Belarus news is true then it demonstrates how truly desperate Putin and the Kremlin are. There's a reason why the Belarusian forces have not got involved for the last seven months, the war is deeply unpopular there and Lukashenko is only holding on by his fingernails. There's a good chance the armed forces could turn against him if they are ordered across the border.

    Also one thing that has really impressed me about the Ukrainians is the level of planning and prep they have put in militarily. I have no doubts that they have planned extensively for this situation and I wouldn't like to be a Belarusian soldier going across the Ukrainian border.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    They are going through a fairly decent moderation program ,and have been fighting alongside Nato troops from Afghanistan to Iraq their special forces unit "Grom" are extremely well regarded in military circles ,

    They Also seem believe they will face open conflict with Russia within the next 6-10 years



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,100 ✭✭✭✭briany


    If Poland were to join in, I wonder would they move into western Belarus or in behind Ukraine's northern border?

    There was talk at one time of NATO troops moving into Ukraine in a sort of peacekeeping capacity. Could Polish forces unilaterally do the same?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 146 ✭✭Wes M.


    Putin is at the card table again I think, trying to turn a bad hand around - he knows the US and Europe would prefer this war to be contained as much as possible, so perhaps he's hoping the West will simply look on as Belarussians wade in ? I don't know what kind of military Belarus has but if I was in Minsk this morning, I would be growing increasingly concerned about the war edging closer...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,084 ✭✭✭kevthegaff


    Would russia not be better off using their rockets on ukraine military positions then civilians?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    He's not trying to turn the war around (that ship has sailed).

    He's trying to shore up his domestic position. Those missiles are a PR stunt.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,457 ✭✭✭✭gandalf


    They aren't accurate enough and they don't have the intel. All they seem to be able to do is attack soft civilian targets.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,139 ✭✭✭Gregor Samsa


    It just highlights the fact that these attacks weren't a military strategy for Russia's survival, they're a political strategy for Putin's survival.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,337 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Not if the goal is to terrorise the population, although the western reporters on the ground in Ukraine this morning have reported the overwhelming emotion is rage.

    Master Strategist wins again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,010 ✭✭✭Beta Ray Bill


    Well trained

    And they have just embarked upon a huge spending spree to modernize their armed forces in 2020 (But things have only increased since 2022 invasion)

    They are on course to become the biggest ground force army in the EU.

    They plan to buy:

    32 x F35 (deliveries to start in 2024)

    4 x Patriot Systems (another 6 on order I think) and they're developing their own shorter range system

    24 x Bayraktar Drones

    32 x Attack Helicopters (apache looks set to win the competition)

    250 x ABRAMS Tanks (Sep V3)

    116 x Used ABRAMS Tanks

    247 x Leopard 2 tanks being modernized in house

    There is also talk of K2 tanks being bought and assembled under license in Poland

    122 x Modern Self Propelled Artillery (Howizter) - At present Poland has more Artillery pieces than UK, France and Germany combined. (Some are older though)

    20 x HIMARS (allegedly 500 Launchers ordered (80 batteries))

    BWP Borsuk IFV (developed in house ) to replace all BMP's (1200 BMP's to be replaced...)

    110,000 personnel to be increased to 300,000 (including territorial army)


    They also completed an order of block 52+ F-16's in 2009 (It should be noted they also purchased a large amount of weapons per plane)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 146 ✭✭Wes M.


    And no doubt Vladimir Solovyov will make much of this on his show in the next few days. I'm not even sure he'll dress it up as legitimate targeting, but will instead call it just desserts and all that. He said over the weekend that it was "better to be feared than laughed at", which shows you what a mindset this man has - exactly the kind of language wife-beaters and rapists use...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    @Beta Ray Bill they signed an letter of request to buy 96 Apache E variants from the US



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    Indeed. If the cap fits and all that...

    If it looks like an evil, psychopathic, kleptomaniacal dictatorship, then maybe that's exactly what it is. Anyone with any illusions about Russia at this stage must have a malfunctioning moral compass.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling




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  • Posts: 3,065 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    It seems to me that for domestic reasons Putin had to make some sort of response to the bridge attack. If he went nuclear his world would crumble very quickly, so the missile attacks were his next option. It is a sign of his weakness rather than an escalation. He's a man who would love an off-ramp now but may not get one.



This discussion has been closed.
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