The big question about Putin's replacement, is what kind of Russia will he leave after him? The economy is tanking, people are leaving in droves, and especially key workers of all descriptions. Then we come to the state of the Military, from what we are hearing (and seeing in some cases) it's not in good shape, on the contrary...scavenging the prisons for soldier's and elsewhere for even basic weapons and ammunition, and that's before we even get to clothing and food. and on top of all this, support for Putins war is on the wane, So what would his replacement do? call a halt to the war, or accelerate it? Thats the 10'0000-dollar question, but I would not automatically assume that continuation of the war will be the path chosen.
I think he means all the attacks that were going on in the Donbas on the Russian-speaking population before the war.
I heard an ex-US Colonel saying that the death rate Ukraine : Russia is at least 5 : 1... sounds very high... Are they any neutral figures estimates for this ?
Currently it's suspected the Ukrainians used some sort of boat or marine drone to carry this attack out, which likely was their own tech.
If the reported death and injury (2.5k and 5k respectively) rate of Russian troops continue I cannot see how this war isï sustainable for Russia. Even if these rates of attrition half Russia will be unable to keep this war going.
Logistics are not looking good either. It's seems unable to arm the new mobilized troops. IMO this winter will be extremely harsh on Russian troops in Ukraine. They will be too easy to target by the artillery system Ukraine has.
I think the Kherson enclave will crumble in the next few weeks, after that so another part of the line will collapse and then another.
Russia's hope to defend in depth is only myth. It's losing troops and equipment too fast. They may get the troops out but they are failing to get equipment and materials out.
i don’t think they’ll have the natural resources to make them at the rate they researched, developed and produced combustion engines
You know what, there'll be an opening for you soon enough in the Kremlin. Putin seems fond of replacing command staff and there's quite a high attrition rate. If I were you, I'd pop a CV in the post and you could get the gig :)
I don't agree with you on that prediction. I'm sure you are a great authority on how geopoliotics works but the russians have shown themselves to be such evil invaders and occupiers with their actions that no politician with the exception of Donald Trump and a couple of e** ts from Ireland would feel comfortable showing themselves as being on putin's side.
putin is already in a corner. I assume the obvious reasons you say he shouldn't be there is the threat he keeps wheeling out about nuclear war but to appease him will simply see him continue to use these threats and with a failing economy and the real prospect of the russian federation falling apart sending weapons to Ukraine until russia is no longer occupying all of its territories is the best route for the US to weaken the russian military and decreasing the chance of russia continuing to build putin's empire.
If you look at operation to capture Lyman, they expected they would capture up to 5,000 Russians. The interviews with the people in Lyman indicate the Russians left mostly in good order. They will take casualties in a retreat, the attacking side will take more losses, which is the point draw out the attacker and degrade them over time. Then in a few months they will have more men, equipment repaired, restocked and be able to advance once more. That looks like the plan to me, most likely they will hold the oblasts they have captured.
I don't think it's a case of not caring, it's more the fact things are never black and white and sometimes it's picking the least bad situation
if everything was rainbows and sunshine the good vs bad argument would be a lot easier
The guardian recently had a long but interesting article about Medvedev's unsavoury and bizarre transition over the last 15 years from Western oriented, tech-enthused moderate to frothing lunatic competing for hawk of the year. Well worth a read:
I was wondering if Ukraine had recovered longer range Russian weapons after the rout in the Kharkiv area. It wouldn't be in the interest of Russia to admit this.
Did Ukraine invade or threaten to invade or attack Russia in any way prior to the war? That’s all the what about you need. Every things else the the preserve of the propagandists and “both sides w@nkers”
So the Russians are withdrawing but you’re claiming Ukraine aren’t capturing the numbers they expected????
The US has given Ukraine nearly 1 million 155 mm artillery shells. Now it's looking for US companies to build more of them.
The US Army is looking for companies that can build up to 12,000 155 mm artillery shells a month.
The Army's survey comes as the US supplies Ukraine with arms, including about 800,000 155 mm rounds.
The scale of the effort to supply weapons has raised concerns about the status of US stockpiles.
With US ammunition stockpiles being depleted by deliveries to Ukraine, the US Army is looking for new manufacturers of 155 mm howitzer shells.
Macron announces €100-million fund for Ukraine to buy arms
"France has been giving military support to Ukraine from the first day, with anti-tank and individual anti-aircraft systems," Macron said.
The new fund, he said, "will allow... to also work with France's defence industry base" and "demonstrates our will to act as Europeans and to align ourselves with this collective effort" helping Ukraine.
The fund would significantly boost the military support France is showing Ukraine, from the €233 million committed so far, which is a fraction of what some other allies have allocated.
At the moment Ukrainian gains are being very successful in having a psychological affect on the Russians. We do not know what price they are paying in terms of death and injury, we know Kherson offensive has been high, or if they can sustain the burn rate of ammunition. Journalists have expressed doubts in their questioning of the US defence department about the logistics of supplying the Ukraine military. The Russian strategy in the field at the moment is to hold until they cannot or Defence in depth, and then withdraw and you can see this is the reports that the Ukrainians are not capturing the numbers they expected, even the interviews with civilians after the recapture of Lyman said most Russians withdrew.
What?
Makes no sense...
They'll just start making more electric cars.
It’s convenient for the Russians to blame a truck and not elite saboteurs
I wouldn't pay much attention to what Russian politicians say. It is the people with real power, in the Kremlin, that make the decisions. And I am not aware of what they think. And even with them, what they say in public is not necessarily what they think.
Good point , German motor industry is finished “If” electric cars become mandatory
Maybe the Ukrainians floated a window pane under that section of the bridge and that section of the bridge, being Russian, felt an overwhelming urge to fall through it.
It will be up to the United States what happens to Ukraine. The US is happy for Russia to take a bloody nose for now but won't want Putin backed in to a corner for obvious reasons.
The choice won't be Ukraine's. That's just the way geopolitics works. There is no free lunch.
The Ukrainians very likely did this, although they are being deliberately ambiguous about it (a good tactic). We don't know for sure how they did it though. Russia propaganda often tries to portray these incidents as "accidents" but that narrative is wearing thin.
No one knows who did the pipeline. Russia shelled both nuclear power plants.
Ooh ooh, do a before and after for russia, go!
If there were people in Ukraine who felt it would be better to be part of Russia I'd expect their views may have changed since the invasion has seen their homes destroyed and relatives and friends murdered by the occupying forces. The Ukrainian armed forces will not accept partition of their country and no one should expect them to accept this just to save face for a murdering psychopath like putin.
It is a point often overlooked because people simply didn't care enough to know.
Whatever about Russia's behaviour the notion of Ukraine as some sort of bastion of freedom, political proberty and a shining beacon of democracy is absolutely absurd and has never been true.
It's just as corrupt as Russia (some would say even more so).
This does not excuse the invasion but the gaslighting regarding Ukraine is hard to stomach really.
Unless of course Medvedev is a great actor who is still a western leaning type.
If you listen closely you can hear it:
yippie kay yey motherfuc*er
Can’t understand what all this speculation about who blew up the bridge is about?
Obviously it was the Anglo-Saxons.
https://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/former-russian-president-dmitry-medvedev-says-threat-of-nuclear-strikes-not-a-bluff-42022663.html
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-its-troops-left-lyman-avoid-encirclement-2022-10-01/
You are wrong.
I can’t see partition being an option
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