@faceman
So when Putin does go - either when he kicks it or by way of political coup, who will take over? Its usually the opposition that rallies a coup. But in this case they're all either in prison or fired. If the coup comes from within the right wing element in the Kremlin, well that could make things worse for everyone.
This is all armchair speculation of course but important to long term security none the less.
Whether a democracy or a dictatorship, you cannot expunge the will of the people and loyalty will only stretch so far. So it's first a question of how much the Russian people are willing to suffer in prosecuting this war, especially younger people, and second of how hard security forces are willing to work for the state they're assigned to protect. Russia is not North Korea, even though people like to say it now is. Younger people who know how to use the Internet a bit better can still get outside information easily enough and get some sense of context. And Russia has very few, if any, outspoken allies in this war. Russia's big international partner (or the one they like to claim is), China, has taken a pretty aloof stance to the situation.
So, you can have General Krull take over Russia and oust Putin, but what political future would their decision to double down on war have? How would they avoid the hard realities of the economic fallout and internal/external political of continuing to prosecute a failing war which is diminishing in popularity with the public?
What about all this? Lets not pretend this is a fight between good and evil. There are many innocent people caught up in this war, which draws most people in to support them, there are some people that are conveniently whitewashed from the picture today to protect a narrative. History shows Western powers are quite capable of supporting unsavoury characters when it suits their interests, including in Russia.
I post a link on whataboutery and I get back whataboutery. Russia is on a campaign of mass murder and has been for more than 2 decades. Anyone else's crimes should not be used as an excuse for this. Russia is a psychically sick country and their war is filled with hate. As the man said - By their fruits ye shall know them.
Medvedev actually used to be progressive by Russian standards and even relatively friendly towards the West. In Obama's last book, he mentioned how he found him quite the contrast to Putin, who subjected him to a long rant about the crimes of the West.
Medvedev has reinvented himself as a hawk since Putin sidelined him after he returned as president in 2012. The question is has Medvedev got to the point where he's started believing his own bullshit. Before 2012 Medvedev was probably Russia's best shot at actually becoming something resembling a normal democratic country. Unfortunately I doubt that's the case now.
I'm not aware that people around Putin want nuclear attack despite the raving loons on Russian tv. As for who replaces him - what is to be gained from continuing this war? Endless attrition and sanctions? Whoever gets in power after Putin would be wise to blame this shambles on Putin and pull out "for the sake of Russian lives" or some such excuse.
I’ve read that Medvedev is considered a busted flush in Russia and his ranting is a desperate bid for attention
I don't think there is anyone currently strong enough to replace him , coup or he dies tomorrow,
There isn't a candidate there that would be able to keep Russia under control,
Lavrov he's worse than putin in some degrees he's happy to spout nonsense verbatim,
Mikhail Mishustin current pm makes most sense he's also not a member of the military or the FSB and an engineer by trade ,he's got some links to Bogey Money,
But I don't see anyone in the current military who has the ability to force a power change either ,
I wouldn't be surprised if the whole place went up in fire within a few years of something happening to putin
The war will end when Putin is gone, if not before. It’s been his personal desire for immortality and his successor should be able to disavow it relatively easily - that doesn’t necessarily mean a full retreat but I’d expect we’d see an armistice quite quickly.
I can’t see partition being an option
https://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/former-russian-president-dmitry-medvedev-says-threat-of-nuclear-strikes-not-a-bluff-42022663.html
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-its-troops-left-lyman-avoid-encirclement-2022-10-01/
You are wrong.
Can’t understand what all this speculation about who blew up the bridge is about?
Obviously it was the Anglo-Saxons.
If you listen closely you can hear it:
yippie kay yey motherfuc*er
Unless of course Medvedev is a great actor who is still a western leaning type.
It is a point often overlooked because people simply didn't care enough to know.
Whatever about Russia's behaviour the notion of Ukraine as some sort of bastion of freedom, political proberty and a shining beacon of democracy is absolutely absurd and has never been true.
It's just as corrupt as Russia (some would say even more so).
This does not excuse the invasion but the gaslighting regarding Ukraine is hard to stomach really.
If there were people in Ukraine who felt it would be better to be part of Russia I'd expect their views may have changed since the invasion has seen their homes destroyed and relatives and friends murdered by the occupying forces. The Ukrainian armed forces will not accept partition of their country and no one should expect them to accept this just to save face for a murdering psychopath like putin.
Ooh ooh, do a before and after for russia, go!
The Ukrainians very likely did this, although they are being deliberately ambiguous about it (a good tactic). We don't know for sure how they did it though. Russia propaganda often tries to portray these incidents as "accidents" but that narrative is wearing thin.
No one knows who did the pipeline. Russia shelled both nuclear power plants.
It will be up to the United States what happens to Ukraine. The US is happy for Russia to take a bloody nose for now but won't want Putin backed in to a corner for obvious reasons.
The choice won't be Ukraine's. That's just the way geopolitics works. There is no free lunch.
Maybe the Ukrainians floated a window pane under that section of the bridge and that section of the bridge, being Russian, felt an overwhelming urge to fall through it.
Good point , German motor industry is finished “If” electric cars become mandatory
I wouldn't pay much attention to what Russian politicians say. It is the people with real power, in the Kremlin, that make the decisions. And I am not aware of what they think. And even with them, what they say in public is not necessarily what they think.
It’s convenient for the Russians to blame a truck and not elite saboteurs
What?
Makes no sense...
They'll just start making more electric cars.
The US has given Ukraine nearly 1 million 155 mm artillery shells. Now it's looking for US companies to build more of them.
The US Army is looking for companies that can build up to 12,000 155 mm artillery shells a month.
The Army's survey comes as the US supplies Ukraine with arms, including about 800,000 155 mm rounds.
The scale of the effort to supply weapons has raised concerns about the status of US stockpiles.
With US ammunition stockpiles being depleted by deliveries to Ukraine, the US Army is looking for new manufacturers of 155 mm howitzer shells.
Macron announces €100-million fund for Ukraine to buy arms
"France has been giving military support to Ukraine from the first day, with anti-tank and individual anti-aircraft systems," Macron said.
The new fund, he said, "will allow... to also work with France's defence industry base" and "demonstrates our will to act as Europeans and to align ourselves with this collective effort" helping Ukraine.
The fund would significantly boost the military support France is showing Ukraine, from the €233 million committed so far, which is a fraction of what some other allies have allocated.
At the moment Ukrainian gains are being very successful in having a psychological affect on the Russians. We do not know what price they are paying in terms of death and injury, we know Kherson offensive has been high, or if they can sustain the burn rate of ammunition. Journalists have expressed doubts in their questioning of the US defence department about the logistics of supplying the Ukraine military. The Russian strategy in the field at the moment is to hold until they cannot or Defence in depth, and then withdraw and you can see this is the reports that the Ukrainians are not capturing the numbers they expected, even the interviews with civilians after the recapture of Lyman said most Russians withdrew.
So the Russians are withdrawing but you’re claiming Ukraine aren’t capturing the numbers they expected????
Did Ukraine invade or threaten to invade or attack Russia in any way prior to the war? That’s all the what about you need. Every things else the the preserve of the propagandists and “both sides w@nkers”
I was wondering if Ukraine had recovered longer range Russian weapons after the rout in the Kharkiv area. It wouldn't be in the interest of Russia to admit this.
The guardian recently had a long but interesting article about Medvedev's unsavoury and bizarre transition over the last 15 years from Western oriented, tech-enthused moderate to frothing lunatic competing for hawk of the year. Well worth a read:
I don't think it's a case of not caring, it's more the fact things are never black and white and sometimes it's picking the least bad situation
if everything was rainbows and sunshine the good vs bad argument would be a lot easier
If you look at operation to capture Lyman, they expected they would capture up to 5,000 Russians. The interviews with the people in Lyman indicate the Russians left mostly in good order. They will take casualties in a retreat, the attacking side will take more losses, which is the point draw out the attacker and degrade them over time. Then in a few months they will have more men, equipment repaired, restocked and be able to advance once more. That looks like the plan to me, most likely they will hold the oblasts they have captured.
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