The problem is seeing Russian actions as “retaliation” for Ukrainian actions. They’re not. Russia’s actions in Ukraine are unilateral and without justification. They’re not bombing apartment blocks because their illegal bridge was hit. They’re bombing them because they’re using terrorism - in the purest sense of the word - as a state military tactic. But they’ll do that regardless of what Ukraine do.
Agreed but I presume you don't think that Ukraine should attack targets within internationally recognised Russian territory, bar some military supply depots near the border etc. It must be pretty tempting to deliver a bit of retribution on a Russian town or city and give Russian citizens a taste of their own medicine. But that would strain the co-operation with and supply of arms and intel from the 'west'. So it's a no go at the moment. Crimea and anywhere in the Donbas are fair targets though.
It's a war. Attacking civilians creates political pressure on the Ukrainian politicians to respond. At this stage the Russians game is buy time, regroup apply the lessons and apply the tactics properly (if they can). Ukraine (or the West) does not have unlimited resources in the field, Russian army don't want Ukrainians concentrating their resources. Why use drone attacks from Belarus and the threat of incursion, if only to tie down Ukrainian man power.
I don't think it matters how many men Russia mobilises if it cannot properly equip them, feed them and motivate them. That's really the question for Russia - are they all chassis and no engine?
And even then, Ukraine continue to receive armaments and training, so if one wants to say that the Russians will be looking better after Christmas, this will also be true of the Ukrainian military.
The Russians can try to reform their military in order to correct their losses - OK, but I propose that in the middle of a war, under heavy sanction from the West and selling cheap oil to the Chinese isn't the best time to do it. Some people thought that Trump was smart by constantly sacking members of his cabinet - using that businesslike scythe until he'd assembled that perfect team. Turns out he just kept sacking people until the end. I think the same will be true of Putin and his sacking of military generals. He's sacked something like half a dozen of his top brass since the start of this, with Shoigu being the latest.
...
What?
Russians don't do shame unfortunately. It's either nationalist fervor or complete apathetic resignation. Shame doesn't enter the equation.
Ukrainians fight like warriors in the battlefield, Putin bombs pensioners sitting at home in their apartments.
The Russians are probably attacking Zaporizhzhia trying to create political conditions to goad the Ukrainians to move the men they are gathering in that region and pull resources from other fronts. It does not make sense to target civilian population otherwise. The same pressure was felt by the English politicians in WW II when the Germans started firing the buzz bombs. Resources had to be deployed by the English to manage the problem. The goal at this stage combined with the added nuclear threat seems to be buy time until the men from the mobilisation can be deployed at scale between January and April next year. Most analysis of their failures with their established doctrine of battalion tactical groups sees to point to the lack of infantry to protect their formations opening up sucessful attacks by the Ukrainians using shoulder launched missiles in the initial phase of the war.
there are some pretty vile comments there but didn’t the Irish Times poll show that a pretty definitive majority of the country wanted a limit it on Ukranian refugees? And some countries have withdrawn welfare support or closed the door completely. So I think anyone wanting to leave is running out of places to go
If you're looking to leave a war zone, a safe place where you may cop abuse still counts as a safe place, so I doubt that would be a deciding factor if choosing to leave. I doubt they're reading that thread, somehow, besides...
Anyway, if you remember the fact that posters on this site managed to get the thread about the Donegal tragedy temporarily closed, it shows there are just some people who are absolute arsehats about everything and anything. In the real world, Ukrainian refugees have gotten overwhelming kindness and support from the people of Europe.
I have seen it, it's horrendous. Can totally understand the reluctance to go abroad. I meant more maybe to friends/relatives further west, where it's somewhat safer. Doubtless tens of thousands have. But I guess there can be countless reasons not to leave too
It definitely has been hard to get out of certain places at certain times. That was one of the big stories in the days following the invasion about the Russians blocking evacuation corridors out of Mariupol, as well as not letting the Red Cross in.
I don't have the stats to hand, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if it was indeed a much higher proportion of older people who's families were already grown choosing to stay than younger mothers with young kids.
Either way, Putin will be dead soon and the Russians will carry the shame of this war for generations.
Because Russia have been so restrained in only targeting valid military targets so far and not committing and crimes against civilians.
I get you. I particularly understand elderly people saying: live or die, they stay where home is.
But younger people, especially with kids,it amazes me that they wouldn't do everything possible to get out, which is why I wondered if it's just too hard to do so because of checkpoints etc
They're fond of the auld nazis too.
@rogber
Out of interest: is it that hard for Ukrainiam civilians to leave those areas close to the frontline? I cannot understand why anyone who is not pro Russian would want to be in such a dangerous area
The human heart is funny, I suppose. The attachment to home and family can supersede the fear of death or injury. If I put myself in the shoes of someone who's not even been out their Ukrainian town or village much, never mind the country, I can well imagine that there's such a fear of the unknown in the idea of fleeing as a refugee. You don't know where you're going to end up, but it'll probably be in some strange unfamiliar place where people chatter in a language you can't understand. You don't know if you'll meet friend or foe. Will you ever come back? And who or what will be left there if you do?
This is from a year or two ago.
I don't think they ever expected one bomb to take out 2 separate bridges and one divided into two separate lanes.
Obviously targeting beside a Train was meant to amplify the destruction but if they wanted to completely destroy it 2 extra bomb's would be needed.
I think this is to demonstrate to their western allies that Putin will do sweet **** all if they hit it. So they're more likely to get long range weapons going forward.
This point could be debated. If civilians are killed in retaliation for a significant military advance at least there's something concrete to show for it.
If they're killed in retaliation for a glorified PR stunt I'm not sure the price is worth it.
However, I assume that the intention was actually to completely destroy the bridge and it failed, rather than simply being a visually impressive but ultimately minor destruction to a very visible symbol.
None of which is to excuse in any way the disgusting act of retaliation by the Russians.
Fair points. To be honest, I was thinking of that Zaporizhzhia attack today with the 17 dead and not really stopping to think about the fact that Russia has done so much of this already.
Problem is you will have a lot troops and materials tied up surrounding it. I expect that the Russian forces will collapse there pretty fast
I think they need to take Kherson city asap. That will free up their troops and give them a base for long range artillery.
What's the consensus on Kherson from a Pro Ukrainian POV? Assuming no more heavy equipment such as tanks, artillery, armoured vehicles etc will cross the river and only food, ammo, fuel and reinforcements are crossing (open to correction here).
Are Ukraine Better off not taking it back completely asap? The heavy equipment across the river is probably never making it back. So by slowly taking it back rather then quickly you occupy Putin and some of his best soldiers.
Of course taking the dam crossing and pushing them out of Myckolaiv and East of the inulets river should be a priority to which would ultimately doom the city. But personally I don't think taking back the city ASAP is essential. An extra month or two could provide a useful distraction.
Do you think Russia will stop targeting Ukrainian civilians if they don't blow up the bridge?
This notion that Ukraine shouldn't do the things it needs to do to defend itself because a vengeful Putin will retaliate in a criminal fashion and kill civilians has no merit. Russia have been behaving in a criminal fashion and killing civilians from the 24th of February (actually, from long before that, but let's just use some kind of reasonable boundary for the sake of discussion). This entire war is Putin's vengeance - it can't be stopped by appeasing that vengeance. Russia don't need an excuse to bomb residential buildings, hospitals, civilian infrastructure - they do it no matter what regardless of what Ukraine target. Ukraine shouldn't be afraid to hit Russia and hit them hard at every available opportunity, because going soft on Russia is only going to prolong the war and end up with more civilian death and destruction.
And the train is still fairly intact for something that was supposedly hit by a missle at to no large impact or exit hole of a weapon,
I would have at least expected the train to partially derail or trucks on their side
They blew the bridge. Let's kill some children.
Foreign Ministry of Ukraine calls a provocation a note handed by Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Belarus to Ambassador of Ukraine blaming Ukraine in preparation of an attack against Belarus
In might be worth noting that Belarus are not directly involved in the Russian war yet, this may change
Some speculating that it was some sort of boat or maritime drone
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