When I say direct response, conventional was what I was getting it, per the U.S. noises that they would sink the Black Sea fleet of Russia if Russia used a nuke. More accurately, the US has leaked that it's one option. God knows what US covert forces could get done if push came to shove.
Nuclear escalation theory is probably a hot topic at military institutions throughout the USA right now. First, there was the escalation ladder which details the incremental steps toward an all-out nuclear exchange, and now comes the escalation vortex, which is a more three dimensional way of looking at the possible steps towards doomsday. More leeway for lateral moves, there, which seek to up the ante as little as possible while still hitting back.
On average it seems like 2500. Plus 5000 injured.
What is he talking about. ? I can only see three of them behind him!
Some countries and their leaders have really risen to the challenge this year:
Ukrainian military liberated Stelmahivka of Luhansk region
The fact that the Russian's are pushing the truck bomb narrative for the explosion almost certainly rules it out as the actual cause - that's just the way it is with them. Besides, a lot of it didn't make any sense. The truck was supposedly stuff full of explosives but came from Russia and the driver wasn't aware. How would that even be possible? Ukrainian agents plant a truck full of explosives, without the driver's knowledge and then are lucky enough that it passes through the security checks at the bridge unnoticed? Nah.
I think the most likely cause is HIMARs. Up until now the Ukrainians have been using that with the GMLRS rockets. They only have a range of 84km though which puts the Kerch bridge out of range from Ukrainian held territory. There is another rocket that can be used with HIMARs though, the ATACMS:
That has a range of 300km putting it well within range:
Officially the Ukrainians have not been supplied with ATACMS yet. I wonder has that changed though. It makes sense that the Russians would rather this not be true too - since this would mean that the Ukrainians can simply target the bridge (and everything else) at will.
Just 2 more weeks
It's as if Putin himself doesn't really believe the four annexed regions are part of Russia. Bombing 'Russia' and killing 'Russian' civilians is real psychiatric case stuff.
Well a haulage company would just roll up to a warehouse or yard and load up, the driver might even have been told it was munitions going to Crimea.
Plus the detonation looks like it was triggered remotely to coincide with passing/meeting/being passed by the train.
The beauty of a long bridge is that the above is much easier to monitor and respond to.
Any chance of changing the record?
But how do you get a delivery truck to be in position for exactly when the fuel train is passing? Hard enough to get a delivery driver to arrive on the right day, never mind him to be on a bridge just at the right time.
almost forgot. after arranging to the delivery driver to be on the bridge at the right time, you now need to ensure the fuel train isn't delayed or running ahead of schedule. For me its just too much of a coincidence.
There is a broader global issue re. tactical nuclear weapons which been discussed by UK military analysts. If Putin uses one and it is not met by an immediate and overwhelming response, their use will become viewed as an acceptable part of battlefield doctrine and lead to a tactical nuclear weapon arms race. How long then before India and Pakistan start lobbing them at each other? And every country trying to get its hands on them. It would be a whole new chapter in the global arms race
There is an acceptance in UK military, at least from what I have heard from experts on the radio, that any use of them by Putin has to be met with an appropriate response to underline its unacceptability.
I watched the videos to many times at this stage,but if you watch it slowly enough you see a flash come from the railside of the bridge as the truck is still driving across ,i think the truck was in the wrong place at the wrong time
Even that narrative is full of holes:
There are just too many, improbable, things that would have needed to go right. Also, knowingly murdering an innocent truck driver, as part of the plan doesn't seem like something from the Ukrainian playbook*. Sure they know that some civilians would have likely died in a missile strike but that's different from setting out to use someone as an unknowing suicide bomber.
It's just far more likely that this was a precision strike. If it was then it will likely happen again, soon enough so we can just wait and see.
*and yes I am aware that they may have blown up Dugina's daughter in a car bomb. 2 things about that:
A leading Ukrainian presidential aide claimed this morning that the explosion which damaged a key bridge in Crimea may have been ordered by one of Vladimir Putin's warring commanders.
If this were true, then all the logistical dilemmas are easily resolved.
Particularly shocking when you consider that 98% of those killed had voted to be part of Russia.
It does reveal what a cynical fraud of a person he is. He claims that Zaporizhzhia is an integral part of Russia and everyone there is Russian and yet fires missiles into the place, killing and wounding large numbers of civilians, without a care in the world.
The regime is beyond rancid.
I think it was more a case of him "interfering":-
The headline "Vladimir Putin takes personal control of Russia's faltering Donbas offensive" is a bit misleading when the story actually says "the Russian president is reportedly interfering in low-level tactical decisions usually made by much junior figures", but hey that's journalism.
I would think the aim was to just blow up the bridge with a bomb, the train was probably an added bit of collateral damage.
I accept everyone's criticism of my amateur hypothesis
Wouldn't an incoming missile have been recorded by some means ?
A direct hit with no accompanying near misses ?
Someone commented that a visual inspection indicated the damage wasn't from underneath so it seems no explosives were in place
With a bridge that long, there could be a window of 15 minutes perhaps, and the trains were presumably running to a timetable
Yes, some level of sympathy/loyalty to the Ukrainian cause would certainly have been required on the Russian side, but we already know that's the case
..
And watch closely:
I wonder if this 20% are part of the reason why Ukrainian morale is so high?
A lot of munitions these days use GPS guidance, which could hit with a 6m precision just using the civillian settings but if using the full US military precision would be down to 1m or less. No near misses with that stuff.
India and Pakistan aren't that mad, though. If they started lobbing them at each other, that's both of their countries destroyed. A mutual nuclear exchange remains just that - a disaster beyond disaster. They can never become an acceptable part of battlefield doctrine because they're too devastating. Having those things flying around makes it all but impossible for conventional war to be fought, for territory to be won and maybe even for life to continue. If war is just another extension of politics, how is politics even supposed to continue if civilisation collapses after some all out nuclear exchange? That's the hard reality and the fear around them which prevents their use from ever being acceptable. Even if there's one situation where you're confident that your enemy won't retaliate with a similar level of force, you can never be totally confident of that, either.
The problem with the above, though, is that it assumes a certain level of reason and lack of desperation. To us, it seems like Putin is becoming desperate about something unreasonable (trying to retain control of territory that isn't even internationally-recognised as Russia's). That's where the worry is. If Putin does use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine at some point, NATO must hit Russian forces in Ukraine with all their conventional might, but not retaliate in kind unless the unthinkable happens and a Russian nuke hits NATO soil. Then.... I'll be looking for those iodine tablets...
The Kremlin: Putin chairs a meeting of the Russian Security Council on Monday
Real suspect behind the bridge attack has been found out.
.
I mean sure but by who? In this theory both the Ukrainians and Russians would have their own reasons for not publicising that information. Same goes for NATO.
Probably on some sort of missing list by now:-
Michael Clarke on Sky suggested ATACMS for the bridge. He said that none had been delivered directly to Ukraine but a couple of neighboring countries had them. So the US could legitimately say they didn't supply them :)
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